Unreal, almost 20% of PayPal users used app to trade Bitcoin?

in LeoFinance3 months ago

image.png

A research report indicates that almost 20% of PayPal users have used the app to trade Bitcoin

In what is probably the most shocking news I have read this past week, and I read some doozies btw, a new research report claims that roughly 20% of PayPal users have used the app to trade bitcoin.

The survey was done by Mizuho Securities and claims that of the 380 users they surveyed, roughly 17% have already used the PayPal app to buy and sell bitcoin.

The report was obtained by coindesk and can be seen here:

https://www.coindesk.com/mizuho-paypal-bitcoin-survey

Did you catch that little tidbit though?

Great news right!

Well, sort of, but probably not nearly as great as this headline might have you believe...

The survey was of 380 users! That's it!

For some context, PayPal has roughly 277 million registered accounts.

Do you see what I am getting at here?

Polling only 380 users out of potentially 277 million probably doesn't give us a real accurate picture of what is going on.

That being said, it's better than nothing I guess.

Even more interesting (and probably more worthwhile? though still from a small data set) is the survey done by this same firm which indicated that roughly 65% of those polled would like to use bitcoin to pay for things:

image.png

(Source: https://www.coindesk.com/mizuho-paypal-bitcoin-survey)

But again the sample size is small, and I have found that when bitcoin is going up, not many people are interesting in selling it to buy things.

This guy included.

So, while the headline sounds great I don't put too much stock into this research report compiled by Mizuho Securities due to the sample size.

It was just too small compared with the enormous number of PayPal users.

That being said, the price action tells us at least some of those users have been using PayPal to buy bitcoin as the price has gone up tremendously ever since PayPal went live with bitcoin trading.

Stay informed my friends.

Image Source:

https://www.coindesk.com/mizuho-paypal-bitcoin-survey

-Doc

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Sort:  

This is surprisingly good news, but 380 respondents are too small a sample to conclude. There should be at least 600 respondents. And then the statistical error is somewhere + or - 10%. But it's good to hear 💰 💱 😎

Well with 277 million accounts, you may need something more like 2.7 million just to get 1% of the user base...

I agree, of course. I just wanted to say that the sample there somewhere between 600 - 700 is representative enough that it can be argued that 20% of PayPal users would use crypto. I know a few guys who use SPSS for analysis and they claim it. I'm not a statistician and I have no reason not to believe them. So if we look at it that 20% of all 277 million users are somewhere, by eye, 50 million and if we take 10% less that’s 45 million and that’s a huge number. 💰 💰 💰

No, you don't need a certain percentage of the user base. You only need a random sample of a certain absolute size to get the margin of error within a certain limit.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

What sample size would be appropriate for 200 million plus accounts?

The exact same sample size that would be appropriate for 20 million plus or 2 million plus accounts or 20,000 plus accounts.

It's the sample size itself that matters and the degree to which the sample size is representative i.e. non-biased.

And what size would that be?

It depends on how confident you want to be in your estimate.

You can play with the numbers here, for example:

https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

It's not 277M. You can only buy btc in states I think. Here in Canada is not available yet.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Any idea how many that might be? A recent survey says roughly 60% of Americans have a paypal account, which comes out to about 192 million Americans. That number could be off quite a bit though.

Of course. It should also be mentioned here that many PayPal users already use crypto. And they also voted in favor. Otherwise, I am a longtime PayPal user but for certain matters I use crypto and I don’t know if I would use this in PayPal. Well, maybe PayPal will be the point where crypto will be used for general purchases ...

Only the absolute size of the sample matters, not how large it is relative to the universe of which it is a sample. Anyway, even if there was no systematic bias in the sample, 360 is a small sample size. Potentially interesting, though.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

I can't even find a proper app for paypal. Coinbase only allows me to SELL crypto to my paypal.. I cannot buy it. Maybe a Canada thing.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Yes that is probably what it is. They rolled out bitcoin trading in the US, and not sure how many other countries (if any). They said they will expand their crypto trading to more regions in early 2021.

It would be more interesting for me how the group was selected for the study and if it is a good representation of the whole PayPal usergroup (demographics, income, education). Results may vary considerably if studens, housewifes, Binance-user or farmer had been choosen for the survey. Although 380 is a small samplesize the way it has been select is the key to interpret the results.

Good point. Though, even if that was the case and the sample size was diverse from different demographics/categories like you mentioned above, it still is probably way too small.

I'll assume that small sample is pretty skewed.

But, as more of these big players start adding options to get into crypto, the better it will be for all of us that were here earlier on in the game!

I can't wait to see how everything unfolds over these next few years. It should really start getting interesting. Hell, it already is actually!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

I'm guessing the sampling had some systematic error or it was simply too small.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Yeah I'm guessing it targeted people that already knew about or had interest in crypto or something.

There is no way it is that high (yet) but as long as people are using it and more are starting to use it, we are heading in the right direction.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Agreed.

It's like claiming 90% of the people who have PayPal accounts don't login at least once a month...

I did major in statistical analysis and I know the importance of error margin... In worst cases the error margin is so big that the whole survey is meaningless...

I don’t like that if you purchase through paypal you cannot transfer it out to a different wallet. Hopefully they change that soon, then I would consider using paypal to purchase BTC or ETH.

Yea that will be an issue for some time for them trying to figure out how to do it without enabling money laundering or tax evasion.

The point here is to demonstrate people are using it. Thats the main issue. The Statistical analysis is secondary I guess :P I am not an expert though.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

What a kind of statistics with less than 1000 PayPal users, even less than 500 users!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

I always was thinking paypla is much against cryptocoins. As heard may times in the past - there is lie, and there is big lie -statistics

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Aside from the arguably very small sample size (10,000 would have painted a better picture) it's still an interesting snippet.

I still wonder how PayPal is planning to deal with "open market" BTC vs. just letting people buy and sell within the closed loop that is PayPal. Are these even "real" BTC, or just "pretend" BTC basically held together by PayPal dollars?

=^..^=

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

The option is available only in the US and Canada as far as I know. So comparing the total number of accounts here with the number of users who used the service is not right.

When the news broke that PayPal allows bitcoin trading I wanted to check it out and obviously I didn't have the option.
Correct me if I'm wrong.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Even though PayPal is shit and bans people for unexplainable reasons, it's another step towards crypto mass adoption.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

That's nuts. They'll never get me to touch their market without the wallet and full control and if they ever got like Cash App ill boycott that bitch so hard. Sorry rant. Keep up the good work

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta