RE: Who Will Be Hurt By Sanctions?
You are viewing a single comment's thread:
"If Russia turns its back on the West and starts tapping into the 1.2 billion people in Africa, India, and China's 2.5 billion and South East Asia's 400 - 500 million, they've got plenty of customers ready and willing.
The Russian economy will be okay in the long term and could even help unlock markets in Africa and Southeast Asia that need that energy to become viable producers of finished goods."
- Russia has neither the demography nor the skill level to tap into the African or whole Asian market. They further lack the transport capabilities, operational knowhow and strategic (business) leadership.
- Russia and China are the biggest beneficiaries of the American-led global order. Only within that order (uphold by the US navy) were Russia and China capable of sourcing commodities (Russia) globally as well as exporting their commodities (Russia) or final products (China).
- Without "the West" Russia and China are doomed.
0
0
0.000
I am not so sure that's the case, China and Russia have their own considerable military force as does India, most of west manufacturing has long been offshored, their best export has been the petrodollar and Eurodollar and they've been living on that one-trick pony for so long that these countries have dutch disease
If it were the other way around the US wouldn't be groveling to the Saudis and Venezuelans right now for more oil production. They western economies are far too service-based and are net importers of basic goods and commodities.
Russia and China have considerable military forces, BUT they can't deploy these forces far away from their own territory (as we can observe in Ukraine, a bordering country).
source
If we talk about trade connections between China/Russia and Africa or Southeast Asia, they would need these beauties (in order to defend their trade ships, containers):
Unfortunately (for Russia and China), they can't compete in that domain.
The US will - probably - be fine concerning their oil supply, as they are (or can be) self-sufficient. Europe on the other hand are very dependent. Many western economies relied on the US to eternally provide the navy securing global trade. Thus, they'll get into trouble when the US retire from that task. But as western countries are more or less pluralist, they'll learn the hard way, adapt, dismiss incompetent political leaders peacefully (!, not possible in Russia or China) and after some bumpy years they'll come back.
I doubt that will be possible in Russia or China where I expect severe hardship for decades.
Sure navys can block off routes, but Russia is land locked to China and India, that's not going to be a problem to trade, they've already got pipelines too. Declaring war on 3 massive nation-states who will dump their treasuries in a hot second leaving the US with no buyers for trillions in bonds, their economy would be toast before they evens et sail