Who Will Be Hurt By Sanctions?
A lot of talk has been made about the punishing sanctions on Russia to try and put pressure on the economy.
Let's be serious, the Russian political elite is not the type to feel pressure from unrest from citizens, Putin has spent 2 decades solidifying his position. Despite what you see in the media, there's still a large portion of the citizens who support him.
The Russian elite have more than enough money to weather the storm and they won't be hurt.
It's the ordinary citizen who wants to buy goods and services, access banking, and live within their means that's going to get the full force of the pain. Do you think they are going to look to the West for help, or their own government?
In addition, this widespread Russiaphobia and xenophobic outlast the population and anything remotely Russian. For fucks sake people are talking about banning Russian cats, and athletes who don't know shit about fuck, and just want to live their lives.
This hate is pushing more Russians who may have been on the fence and been westernized to side with Putin and rally around the flag.
When people are vilified, they tend to find solace in one another and galvanize support within these nationalist ideals. Don't believe me?
Think of 911, a total tragedy, and loss of life, how Americans rallied around that moment, so why wouldn't Russians do the same?
Claiming the early win
Now if you look in the media, people are cheering on these sanctions and the ruble has taken a beating, Russian stocks have taken a beating and yes it has disrupted the Russian economy. The fact is smart traders are buying up these impaired assets because they know they will rebound.
We are seeing virtue-signaling companies and funds all over the west dump these stocks and forex, thinking they're making a difference, but they're really only providing a decade-long buying opportunity for those picking up these stocks.
Now the West, especially Western Europe, are claiming an early win, you've even seen normally neutral Swiss and the Swedes come out against the Russians.
But guess what? The Russians don't forget, they're looking at who their new trading partners will be after all this is said and done.
The commodity bull run has begun
Russia is a massive commodity producer and manufacturing base, some even call it a gas station with nuclear weapons, which is kind of funny but they've got a lot going for them. Sure they don't have the fancy information economy like the US with techs tocks or the finished goods like the Europeans with high-end vehicles and luxury brands but it has something EVERYONE needs.
Food and energy, and right now, we're in a bull market for commodities, just look at the YOY increases for essential items needed for a modern economy to function.
Energy
Livestock
Industry
Agriculture
Russia doesn't need the west
Western Europe has a population of around 200 million, add to that Canada, America, NZ, UK and the US and its around 800 million people give or take. Yes, these countries have a disproportionate amount of wealth compared to other countries, but how much growth do they have in them compared to countries in Africa and Asia.
If Russia turns its back on the West and starts tapping into the 1.2 billion people in Africa, India, and China's 2.5 billion and South East Asia's 400 - 500 million, they've got plenty of customers ready and willing.
The Russian economy will be okay in the long term and could even help unlock markets in Africa and Southeast Asia that need that energy to become viable producers of finished goods.
Living well doesn't go out of style
Western Europe basically bit the hand that feeds them, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, once in Russia's sphere of influence will cut off the west. These countries provide a large portion of Western Europe's food and energy supply.
When we consider that the Western countries and their following of the bullshit scam Paris accord continue to chase renewables as a savior and offshore production so their carbon numbers look good, they are fucked royally.
The cost of living in these countries is going to shoot through the fucking roof as European countries all fight for energy and food from the remaining suppliers.
I can easily see energy costs and food costs across Europe double even triple at this rate and if it does what do you think people are going to do? They're going to dump assets like shit hotcakes, real estate, stocks, bonds, anything not nailed down will get sold, because stocks don't keep you warm and you can't fucking eat a house.
The dumping of assets to chase commodities is going to force interest rates to rise and the Europeans will have one choice. Mass default, or print their tits off and devalue that Euro for all its worth.
I am still torn on this one, I feel Germany who basically run the EU will step in to defend the Euro. They still have so much scar tissue from the last hyperinflation, they're going to advocate for a deflationary depression over hyperinflation.
However, other Euro countries won't see eye to eye with this plan, so this remains to be seen how it will play out.
Either way you're fucked!
What about Russia
Sure the Russians may not have the latest doohickies and consumer goods from Japan, America, and Western Europe, but they'll have all they need, in income and a new manufacturing base to trade with and rebuild their economy.
Have your say
What do you good people of HIVE think?
So have at it my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, "I am a Jessie."
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I think that threats of sanctions are beneficial.
Sanctions themselves tend to hurt the people at large while benefiting the rulers who get to determine who stays and business and who gets pushed out.
I usually takes awhile for sanctions to kick in. I am assuming that the invasion will be short term.
If our political leaders were wise, they would be putting sanctions together at the moment with plans to use long term sanctions as a negotiating tool.
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Hi
Fascinating post, full of unpopular ideas, but also filled with many truths.
The world is complicated, and there is much inter-dependence.
It is true that energy is the life blood of manufacturing, agriculture and sometimes commerce.
However, you can’t eat oil and gas, and your customers need to be able to pay. I suspect Russia will feel the impact of laying havoc to the largest producers of agricultural commodities in Western and Eastern Europe.
I appreciate your point of view however because you see what some of us do not, and as the world is difficult to see in its entirety from one point of view we all learn from your perspective, and the perspective of others. Utilizing all of them we make good decisions.
I certainly see this war or special military operation as a double tragedy both for Ukraine, and for Russian citizens. The world turns against them, their economy is crippled, and the life of average Russians, while much, much better then the citizens of Ukraine, is being depreciated. Russia is becoming a pariah and its citizens will suffer. As I said their plight is a 1000 times better then Ukraine, but they are not escaping the pain.
@shortsegments
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I don't believe sanctions do much but make people without the ability to divert money supply to themselves poorer and make it harder to make a living, South Africa was sanctioned for many years and it didn't do much apart from widen the gap between the rich and poor.
I think its a blunt instrument that governments think is helpful but in any method of slowing trade be that taxes and tariffs both parties lose
Sanctions aren't just about money. Sanctions give government direct powers to interfere with commerce.
Sanction regimes directly give rulers the government powers to say who gets to be in business and who doesn't.
BTW, Jim Crow laws and Apartheid did the same thing. They were absurd restrictions that gave more power to the rulers while limiting the ability of people to engage in commerce.
Sanctions lead to counter sanctions and create false economies everywhere.
In the United States, the Democratic Party flipped from supporting Jim Crow to supporting Affirmative Action. This shows that the leaders of these political groups are far more interested in power and control than they are in what ever cause they use to justify the sanctions.
Most leaders have enough stuff to be happy. They tend to be more concerned with the power they have relative to others than they have in the wealth of society.
In HIVE terms. They are driven by their position in the richlist and not by the price of the token. The position on the richlist gives the power to chose the witnesses.
Actually, "Russians" and Russia do need "the West" because a large part of Russia is in Europe, and there are many economic and social ties between people as in the EU and the European part of Russia. So there are economic dependencies and interests.
You are right that the majority of Russians still support Putin or his system. And those who do not support that nor Putin have to be good patriots by uniting for democracy, dignity, and peace.
Here is some more info about sanctions
https://ukrainecryptowar.substack.com/p/russia-and-crypto-possibility-to?s=w
Of course, more trade is always better but what I am trying to say is that there is not much in the west being produced, lets be honest here, what is really needed that is manufactured in the west, not much, its all been offshored to Asia, Latin America and Africa for cheaper labour, sure there are some goods but it would hardly impact Russia, most of the West transitioned to service-based economies
Thanks for the source, ill give it a read
All right. Thanks. Here is some latest info https://ukrainecryptowar.substack.com/p/russia-avoiding-sanctions-via-cryptocurrencies?s=w
We are already seeing the price rise here in our country. Heating oil price increased by almost 40% in weeks and other thing is that it’s not available even if you can pay. There is a shortage. Car fuel is same. Electricity prices are increasing too.
It’s a mess for entire world. Does not matter which country is fighting, it affects us all.
That;s what fiat money does, it ensures that we all pay for government policies we don't want
This is a total mess... but I agree with you, it looks like the East countries are aligning against the West. Russia, China and India together will probably take over the world... and replace the hegemony of the US and European empire, which seems to be crumbling fast. I guess we can say the empire has reached its expiration date.
It sure wasn't easy for the west to blow up their position but man they really seemed commited to it with really bad decisions ontop of bad decisions, eventually, all empires must fall. I can't tell the future but I can see where trends are pointing and it looks like the East and Global South are on the up
Yeah, and let's see where Japan will fall on this new world organisation. They seem to be pretty screwed at the moment. I found it ironically funny that Sony said they wouldn't sell any more PS5 to Russia... Oh really? I'm in Portugal and I can't buy one as well, because there is never one on stock! I've spent a whole year trying to buy it... and now I gave up. So, sanctions or no sanctions, it's the same! 🤣🤣🤣
"If Russia turns its back on the West and starts tapping into the 1.2 billion people in Africa, India, and China's 2.5 billion and South East Asia's 400 - 500 million, they've got plenty of customers ready and willing.
The Russian economy will be okay in the long term and could even help unlock markets in Africa and Southeast Asia that need that energy to become viable producers of finished goods."
I am not so sure that's the case, China and Russia have their own considerable military force as does India, most of west manufacturing has long been offshored, their best export has been the petrodollar and Eurodollar and they've been living on that one-trick pony for so long that these countries have dutch disease
If it were the other way around the US wouldn't be groveling to the Saudis and Venezuelans right now for more oil production. They western economies are far too service-based and are net importers of basic goods and commodities.
Russia and China have considerable military forces, BUT they can't deploy these forces far away from their own territory (as we can observe in Ukraine, a bordering country).
If we talk about trade connections between China/Russia and Africa or Southeast Asia, they would need these beauties (in order to defend their trade ships, containers):
source
Unfortunately (for Russia and China), they can't compete in that domain.
The US will - probably - be fine concerning their oil supply, as they are (or can be) self-sufficient. Europe on the other hand are very dependent. Many western economies relied on the US to eternally provide the navy securing global trade. Thus, they'll get into trouble when the US retire from that task. But as western countries are more or less pluralist, they'll learn the hard way, adapt, dismiss incompetent political leaders peacefully (!, not possible in Russia or China) and after some bumpy years they'll come back.
I doubt that will be possible in Russia or China where I expect severe hardship for decades.
Sure navys can block off routes, but Russia is land locked to China and India, that's not going to be a problem to trade, they've already got pipelines too. Declaring war on 3 massive nation-states who will dump their treasuries in a hot second leaving the US with no buyers for trillions in bonds, their economy would be toast before they evens et sail
Sanctions always hurt the little people, whether they are willing to take it in the pocketbook for their corrupt leaders is another matter.
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It's always the citizens who have to pay for their elected leaders decisions, you get and pay for the government you deserve.
Dear @chekohler , Do you expect Russia to overcome Western interference and eventually take over Ukraine?😯
Personally, I think it's already a formality, unless the west totally lose their marbles and go to war. If not this won't drag on much longer