Will nothing happen to DEC's price?
We're always wondering what's going to happen next in the economy of our favorite crypto game, Splinterlands. I guess the following text needs to change:
The future of DEC and SPS is in a few months
The Splinterlands team has taken DEC into a completely different direction. It had always been soft pegged at $1 = 1000 DEC, but it never really worked. Will it make any difference? Can we really rely on the team's words?
My answer to this question is a huge "NO" if we're talking about the short-term future, but a decisive "YES" if we start thinking about the long-term, but I understand why many people would doubt their strategy could work.
Despite attempts to make a stable coin out of DEC, it's clear it never actually headed in that direction. Bouncing between market lows of $0.50 and highs of $0.80 unless a new whale buys in, those of us who have been for longer know we couldn't get our hopes up.
That was specially true if we look at top holders of this token - of course prices would sink if someone decided to leave altogether. They wouldn't do that, since it's stupid to let go of everything at once instead of slowly letting it drip out of your wallet as people become interested in Splinterlands. Regardless, the fact is that there's just too much DEC and its distribution wasn't going to lower considerably, since whales just keep accruing too much DEC to get rid of.
If the Splinterlands team made a mistake once, can they get it right this time? Absolutely. The new plan for DEC halts distribution, which reduces offer, while demand stays the same. Moreover, those at the top of the rich list no longer stack more tokens than they can spend.
We're able to generate a pack worth of DEC by burning $4 worth of SPS, so everyone understands it's never going to sell for higher than that. Whales will slowly sell their DEC for a value lower than the soft peg.
That's going to take a long time to happen, but once they finally run out of stock, DEC will reach its 1000 DEC = 1 USD peak. SPS prices will rapidly increase once we reach that stage as it's constantly burned by people interested in purchasing more Splinterlands booster packs.
That said, it might take months or even a couple of years. It depends on how much DEC is spent on new boosters from now on. If I had to guess, however, I'd say the real economic transition takes place at the beginning of the next expansion, since everyone will have to spend DEC to get new cards. Top holders will be able to sell their stock and we'll find SPS on its way to the moon.
When that happens, even players who are on a much lower budget, like myself, surely begin feeling immensely satisfied for holding on to our SPS stake.
In fact, since it won't be as easy for long-term holders to earn DEC as it once was, so cards of the new edition should see huge increase in price compared to Chaos Legion and everything that came before it.
After all, since we can find boosters for lower than 2 USD in secondary markets, that means every CL card would have double their value in case boosters were actually worth 4 USD right now. I'm happy that the halt in DEC distribution ensures an even greater value of every card in the next expansion.