Polycub Extravaganza
Dear Diary,
It's been 5 days since my last post.
Sorry about that!
I flew across the country, went to a funeral for my late 5-year old nephew, met with a bunch of people I probably won't see for years, and then flew back. Again, in theory it seems like I should have the time to blog when I'm on the road, but it proves to be exceedingly difficult in practice.
This is especially true because I was dealing with the Polycub launch for hours an hours and hours. It's surprising how much time one can "waste" on DEFI projects. I scraped together $27k and dumped $23k into xPolycub within the first 5 minutes of launch.
As you can probably guess, that was pretty awesome. On the day of my nephew's "celebration of life" (wasn't a traditional funeral) I had increased my $23k to $140k. Was the wildest ride ever, and very odd considering the circumstances of supposed to be sad for my nephew.
I had a plan.
It usually takes 2-3 days to reach peak FOMO on new projects.
On day 3 I hit $140k.
Did I cash out?
LOL NAH
In fact, remember that other $4k of the $27k? I put that into pLEO/MATIC because that's the safe pool. Both LEO and MATIC are oversold in my opinion, so it was almost impossible to lose money there within the first three days. Still is, really.
So yeah on day 3 instead of cashing out I transferred the LEO/MATIC LP into pCUB/ETH. I also got a 25k LEO powerdown and a 5k Hive powerdown that day which was worth about $9k. Then I took out around $10k from xpolycub. I shoved ALL OF THIS money into the pCUB/ETH pool. I was very excited to get an ETH stack back and the yield was like 5000% per day. I was making like $2000 a day in yield.
Then the next day pCUB crashes from $3.50 to 1.50 and I lost like $70k.
What a painfully obvious outcome...
and I even knew it was going to happen (2-3 days is the sweet spot).
So yeah, I'm still up a ton of money, but I still feel dumb.
Me and a friend aped into the xpolycub pool instantly and it was only 7% more expensive than pcub. How wild is that? Now xpolycub is worth +600% more than pcub (x7 multiplier), and I still own over 7% of all xpolycub in existence. It's pretty wild I must say. At one point I think I owned like 18% of all xpolycub. Competition has been increasing for obvious reasons.
Strategy.
I have a plan for trading this market, even if I botched the opening 2-3 day hype cycle. Again, I'm very wary to discuss this strategy... because this is a competition and honestly enough people read my blog now that I've already lost money multiple times talking about plays I was going to make on CUB itself.
What I can say is that CUB and LEO are grossly undervalued. These are super safe assets that are getting largely ignored because everyone want to participate in the shiny new thing with totally unsustainable yield. At this point, it's unclear what will perform better. Polycub is obviously insanely volatile, and liquidity is pretty thin. It only takes a single whale cashing out to dump the price and cause a bit of a panic, leading to more selling. Still, I think the range we are in now is a lot more sustainable than $3-$5.
LEO liquidity
LEO liquidity is off the fuckin rails. Because the polycub yield is so massive, $735,746 is in the LP right now. That's three times more than the amount in the pCUB/USDC pool & pCUB/ETH pool (not added together). Each of the main pools has around a quarter mill sitting in it, while LEO/MATIC is around 3/4 million dollars. This is the most liquidity LEO has ever had ever. If you ever wanted to buy LEO, this is absolutely the easiest time to do it. Slippage is so good, it's incredible.
Things will calm down a bit by the time yield on pLEO/MATIC is equal to bLEO/BNB. the pLEO LP sucked all the liquidity out of the other pools because the yield is exponentially higher. The bLEO LP only has $170,950 in it, and yield has basically doubled to 150% APR (340% APY). Still, it is not worth putting money into the pool unless you're overwhelmingly bullish on BNB, which let's be honest, most people on Hive are not because of the hostile takeover. Also Matic is a good token, looks oversold, and is lower on the market cap and perhaps has more room to improve. Also Polygon seems to be cheaper and perhaps even more secure than BSC, but that's just a rough estimate (or perhaps wishful thinking). The fact remains that operations on Polygon are exponentially cheaper than BSC because MATIC only costs $1.40 and BNB costs near $400. The token price per operation seems roughly the same, but the USD costs of the tokens is radically different.
Marketing campaign
I'm told that a massive marketing push is coming for the LEO ecosystem and polycub in particular. I have no idea if we will get any outside money pumped into this thing, but that would certainly be nice. Meanwhile, LEOFINANCE has been BANNED from YouTube with no reason given. The war against legitimate projects continues, and the censorship campaign continues to ramp up. Wen project blank?
Polycub launch
The launch was very frustrating. That's because there was no fair launch in play and bots had all of the advantage. Khal set a time for launch, and then he pushed it back, and then he pushed it back again, and then he pushed it back again, and then he pushed it back again, and then he pushed it back again, and then finally he just stopped pushing it back and made us wait until launch.
During the final push of launch Khal had to add liquidity slowly because bots kept buying it all. Next time we really need to do a fair launch so that anyone can buy at $1 if they want to. I tried to buy at $1 and I ended up getting 9000 Polycub for $23k, which was obviously pretty fucking annoying, because we are giving the bots free money.
What does a fair launch look like?
Let's assume the next launch is LunaCub. Anyone would be able to buy in early by "donating" UST (terra?) to the liquidity pool. LunaCub would then mint 2 tokens for each dollar added to the smart contract in this way. One of the tokens will be paired to the UST and added to the vault, providing permanent liquidity, the other token will be given to the user that added the UST.
I talked about this in Discord today, and @khaleelkazi asked me if I had watched the AMM. I hadn't and still haven't. He basically said this was addressed and people would be able to buy in a similar way that I described, except users would own the LP tokens instead of raw LunaCub.
My way is superior to this, because the investors don't control the LP tokens and those LP tokens and liquidity move into the vault forever. Again, we should always be looking for a fair way to print more tokens if those tokens add value to the protocol; that's just free money on the table waiting to be scooped. By printing an entirely new set of LunaCub for every UST that was pumped into the vault, we accomplish this, and essentially double the value of the protocol on day one. If bots buy at $1 and push it up to $2, we can immediately dump on them for a gain while still maintaining massive liquidity pools.
In addition, all LunaCub could/should be automatically added to the xLunaCub farm right on block one. These launches should always cater to the degens; the LEO bulls that are willing the throw down money blindly because they trust the mission. This is clearly what polycub was going for, but it missed the mark a bit in the beginning.
Khal launched PolyCUB after being awake for over 50 hours. I essentially begged him to abort and create a fair launch. It was so obviously going to be a bit of a disaster because people were burning like $200 on low liquidity test pools that only had a few polycub in them. It was very obvious people who wanted to buy in weren't going to get a fair price without a bot.
If I had a bot in this case, I would have easily been up $300k in 48 hours instead of $140k. Probably more. Clearly we should just be printing more tokens instead of forcing people to compete at the starting line. Either way, it looks like this will happen for the next launch, but like I said, we should be printing 2 "LunaCub" for each dollar pumped in, one for the vault LP and one for the user that "donated". That's just free value waiting to be printed.
Conclusion
I have so much more to say about this, but if I say it I basically give away my strategy, and I think my strategy is pretty good and I don't want people copying it. Unfortunately volatile launches like this are very much a zero-sum game. We should work to change that, but for now it is what it is, and I want to "win".
I should have taken the $140k and pumped it all into Hive.
LOL, I thought about it.
Infinite greed is infinite.
Even $140k in two days wasn't enough for me.
Mindblowing.
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Sounds like a wild and emotional ride on many levels. If you notice how xpolycub printing rates and the drop, it is likely you didn't lose 70k but rather delayed it.
At least that's what I am telling myself because although I considered selling some I never did.
Glad you are home, and so sorry to hear about your Nephew.
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Yeah it was insane.
Did you know they have WIFI on planes now?
LOL I haven't flown for over 10 years.
Also I forgot to say that I bought a $250 laptop just so I could participate in pcub.
My first enjoyment of WiFi on the plane was 2015. How time flies!
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I think you mentioned getting the $250 laptop in one of your previous posts.
This post reads like a college textbook, and contains as much (or more!) information without being 500 pages long. Worthy of applause!
It will be interesting to see what the bonding mechanics do for things and what the RFV ends up being. I have no idea where that starts, $0?
There's a long way to go before we know if Khals mad/genius design works or not but I think it's fair to say the launch was very successful, despite the bot issues.
I'll be interested to follow your ramblings leading up to the next one to see if you accidentally drop your strategy to the world. lol
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Yes i forgot to mention that the launch went better than expected.
well, I think the only way to go wrong is to not be involved in PolyCub at this point. Some strategies will be more profitable than others. I got most of my PolyCub into xPoly very early so I'm happy.
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My condolences.
I put in all my airdropped polycub into xpolycub first thing. I did not notice any reduction in amount. I must have been first into the pool.
I was almost sure it was you who crashed the market by cashing out of xpolycub as I saw in discord what your position was... those are some massive gains.
I only put in my airdropped amount (31) and sold 75% of that stake on day 2 (around $5) for around $400... which was 13x if we take PolyCub at $1. I'm really trying to sell when I feel greedy to make sure that I can lock in gains at market highs (my biggest issue).
Regardless... free money raining from the skies!!!
So sorry to hear about your nephew, RIP 💟
I was wondering why we haven't seen any first-hand impression/reaction from @edicted. What you explained in the "What does a fair launch look like?" it sounds very similar to CUB Bonding that is coming up next to achieve POL that khal keeps talking about. I am excited to see how it will work and perform in reality. We will be able to get PolyCUB at a discount price in exchange of LP Tokens.
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And Right now it's sitting at 1.17, the price is going down but not a worry for me. I'm just more concerned if it maintains a stable value after the next six months.
If I were you, I think I would not have been able to stop myself from selling it at 140k, wow! But I appreciate your decision and decision like yours can change the fate of this project.
Lesson of the day: Have a plan... got it
yeah but you actually have to do the plan.
thats 10x harder than making the plan
Yes, especially when a 2x from $140k is possible!
First of all, my condolences for your family members' loss; but it is also good to remember him by celebrating with life.
Second, expanding to Terra Luna network sounds like a really exciting project. Do tag me if that happens! I don't have much but I am staking my Luna for some UST set aside. Hopefully when that is ready, there will be some good capital to join your LunaCub when it happens.
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My condolences...
Everything in life is all about risk.. Cryptocurrency is risk taking, we can only predict an outcome but can't determine it. But #POLYCUB has proven a positive vibe recently... I've been going through @khaleelkazi post for a while now, he has proven so much benefits to gain in indulging in #POLYCUB.
Once again... My condolences, take heart!
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your posts are so next level. I think I made some pennies and they are all still in the system somewhere. I don't really know how to take profits. I claim 1 poly at a time out of the pleo-wmatic farm, take the fee and then stake to xpoly. Seems like the right thing to do in theory but I don't know the theory lol.
I always learn something from your posts, mostly that you have guts, do your thing and come out ahead. Not always how you plan it but you are in the game and think logically about it. You'll do even better on the next one regardless if changes are made. You have mad skill. I hope to slowly get there. I have high hopes for me but low expectations lol.
One of the best things about hive is that when you see people trying to learn, you support them a long the way. Where else but hive would you see this with money on the line.
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what use case does polycub actually have? Is it just to get more rewards? Seems like these projects just pump and dump?
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Polycub Extravaganza Indeed in all ramifications. What could be better than this? I keep wondering !!
Nice strategy. I might have to save up some funds and think of something for next time.
You are right about the launch being delayed so much. It might have been better to just set up a time on the following day to go live so everyone can get in from the start.
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I am so so sorry about this. Sending you great strength and grace to bear this loss. Sigh... Life!
Don't beat yourself up for it man @edicted!
We have all been there and we are still there... LOL.
As humans, we have the tendency to push the limit and see if we can always make that little something on top of what we already have...
It's the thrill of the game!
Welcome back. We missed being part of your daily diary.
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So sorry about your nephews death.. one thing about defi project is just what you said because you can end up wasting you time on it and still run at loss
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Sorry to hear about your nephew.
PolyCub has been pretty insane to say the least. Personally I didn't use the right strategy with it so I'm going to be farming on it rotating my strategy overtime. It took my BiSwap play six months to really bang so we will see if strategically I can make this make sense way quicker.
Hopefully the marketing push will help and I don't know if PolyCub is going to end up showing up on other farms as well.
Sorry to hear about your loss! It’s never easy to lose someone but when they are just a child it’s even more heart breaking!
Some wild ride you had with cub and PolyCUB during that time that’s for sure lol
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It should be interesting to experience the first moments when the system kicks in. I got up at 5:30 Turkish time, struggled with my Ledger, and made a few transactions. By the end of the first day, I had earned $500. An amount I earn in two months by writing :)
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So I have been thinking about this a lot, and I just don't see any way polyCUB will be sustainable over the longer term at all (despite what Khal has been saying). Ultimately, polyCUB provides no service that people will pay for to drive value to the token. It's purely based on earning yield. The only reason to buy the token is to earn more of the token.
The same is true of BSC CUB, but that had continued inflation at a constant rate and was still slowly losing value over time and only gained value when additional things were added such as IDOs or airdrops. Since polyCUB will very quickly run down to zero inflation, and it doesn't have any planned other things to drive demand (IDOs, airdrops, etc), I don't see why there will be any buying demand at all.
I understand the idea of the protocol owned liquidity which will earn yield that will be used to provide buying demand for polyCUB, but unless I'm missing something I can't see how that will be any significant amount of money or how the "risk free value" of polyCUB could ever be more than maybe a few cents.
I would love to see some numbers around the PoL from the team, but the way i understand it, the PoL gets 10% of the yield from the tokens in the kingdoms. If we assume $5M in the kingdoms, then assume that the yield on that is 10% (which is generous), and then polyCUB gets 10% of that - it comes to $50k per year in PoL, and then if that PoL earns 10% yield it comes to only $5k / year in polyCUB buybacks. Please let me know if I'm missing something here.
someone could also build a Dapp on top of Polygon and accept pLEO and polyCUB as payments within the Dapp. They could even duplicate an existing Dapp built somewhere else and replicate it on Polygon and implement these Tokens. And then do it again on another Blockchain when this is repeated over and over again.
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Some real talk here :)
Its seems that a lot of defi tokens stugle to maintain value, even the top ones like uni or cake.
This protocol has a lot of angles and feautures, and I'm curious to see how will they play out, like the bonding that will sell the token at premium for other tokens. Still the protocol needs to earn those tokens first :)
With this said, the top yield aggregators like autofarm and beefy dont have any inflation of their token at all, and aditional APR. They just provide a service of autocompounding and take small managment fee from where they buyback their token and give yeild to the users that stake it. They dont have things like xPC or bonding.
The ultimate service that polycub provides is autocompounding.
With this said they better add a lot of great pools from other defi tokens, so people will want to use it as a service.
I am glad to hear these realistic assessments :)
Creating an edge for early investors, raising funds, then using those funds to attract further funds also creates value. I believe creating liquidity is a key success factor of crypto. The downside is that it is not sustainable when not supported by utility.
I believe that utility and financial mechanisms based on game theory complement each other.
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Polycub has a tremendous impact in crytocurrency.
I tried to claim my polycub but metamask said I didn't have the gas fee because my bnb is smartchain and not mainchain, wtf?
I still haven't figured out how to fix that.
I'm losing faith in them over this.
I'm on the verge of trading it all back to hive.
Gas on Polygon is Matic.
Metamask can call the gas token on an EVM chain anything that you set it to.
Apparently when CUB connects you to the polygon-rpc.com node it labels it as Binance?
Dun know... weird bug.
If you need some MATIC gas let me know here or in discord.
This is what I get when I let it change the chain and try to claim.
I have enough bnb on the smartchain to pay the gas it is asking.
It's starting to look not worth the effort, let alone the gas fees.
You don't have any 'BNB'.
You have zero.
Because 'BNB' actually means MATIC.
I thought I explained this.
You don't claim the airdrop on BSC you claim it on Polygon.
you need to transfer MATIC to your wallet to do anything.
Lol, confusing, to say the least.
Does 10hbd get me enough to make claims every 3rd day and stake it?
Transactions on Polygon cost less than 5 cents.
Yeah it is confusing.
Like I said you can fix this by going into SETTINGS >> NETWORKS >> Binance smart chain mainnet.
Change the Fee coin to MATIC and the name of the network to polygon.
It should look like this.
Seems like you ignored it before.
It was greek before.
Thanks.
yeah that bug is really messing people up
it's quite unfortunate
I got it, but now stealthex's wallet is down.
With yields this high and fees this low you should be claiming at least once a day most likely.
Too bad the entire polygon network has been down for 5 hours
Lol, how do I get from hbd to matic?
Stealthex will let me send some hive.
All the best to you and your fam - Man, what a rollercoaster :(
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What did your nephew die of?