One year later

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Ah remember a year ago?

I member.

Last year I was flashing my Hive account to friends and family during Thanksgiving showcasing the fact that my account was worth half a million dollars and I was about to lose most of it because there was no way for me to cash out due to all my stake being powered up. Ah, how right I was. One year later Hive finds itself around 90% lower than the previous peak.

But that's how the cookie crumbles in crypto. Hard to have any regrets when it's absolutely impossible to know where the number is gonna go. By all accounts Hive could have just as easily spiked to over $10 from there. After all, Bitcoin went x3.5 higher than the previous all time high in 2017. Hive going x3.5 higher than Steem's all time high puts us at $24+. How wild would that be? One day.

Hive continues to be ignored in the context a social media network, and that's fine. Everyone wants to build the thing. Everyone knows corning the market on crypto social media is perhaps one of the most lucrative goals out there. It will take a dozen failures across the board before people capitulate and simply join in on the thing we've already been building here for years.

To be fair Hive isn't even a social media site. Hive is whatever we build on it. Could be a gaming network. I've even joked a few times that it could be a porn network that completely overshadows sites like Onlyfans. Although somehow I doubt that stakeholders around here would allow that to happen. Sounds like a downvote war waiting to happen to me.

This is one reason why I really like the idea of Bluesky and how this is all part of the process. Bluesky is going to fail miserably. It would be great if it didn't because then we could incorporate whatever open source code they use that has success, but that's not going to be the case. Jack thinks that casual users are going to run nodes and provide infrastructure to the network for free. It's magical thinking that apparently needs to be slapped down in this jungle we call real life rather than just being an obviously failed experiment from game-theory alone.

When a network gets built with zero incentives, the only ones that provide infrastructure will be huge centralized entities that will be forced to monetize the data with targeted ads and whatever else. Jack already knows this is exactly what he needs to avoid, but somehow doesn't realize that what he is building leads to this exact situation when refusing to launch a token.

More and more people are talking about "blockchain not Bitcoin/crypto" during this bear market flush. Too be expected. When hundreds of scams and failed experiments are all going insolvent it only makes logical sense that developers would look for a way to avoid the scammy aspects of the projects they are looking at.

The problem with this idea is that blockchain is nothing without a token to back it up. Without a token, there are no incentives. This makes it impossible to create a decentralized network, because again the only reason for people to provide infrastructure are the same old WEB2 datamining tactics that lead to gross centralization and invasions of privacy and security.

It's pretty safe to say that if crypto doesn't crash any more from here, this bear market wasn't THAT terrible. A 77% dip on Bitcoin and a 90% dip on Hive would be pretty standard (or even preferable) to previous bear markets. There are still a ton of threats out there in terms of FTX contagion but also these threats have been blown way out of proportion and may blow over in a month or two. Maybe not. We'll see.

The minutes from the last FED meeting were released recently and were attributed to the small New Moon pump we saw yesterday. Funny because the FED is just doing what they've been saying they're going to do for like 6 months. Now suddenly the FED is being referred to as "dovish" when their stance hasn't changed at all. I think this shows how time is the great equalizer here and we really just have to weather the storm and wait out these insane conditions.

Conclusion

Focusing on the development is important. So many projects are progressing forward concurrently. Even though the chance of Bluesky failing is high, just the fact that it's being built on the Lightning Network increases the perceived value of crypto and could easily be enough to dig us out of the hole we've fallen into. Markets are not rational. In fact they are so irrational that Bitcoin created a new low when an exchange went insolvent that was holding zero Bitcoin in reserves. Make it make sense.

At the end of the day Bitcoin bear markets last around a year. How long has it been since peak? A year. So why is everyone losing their mind and saying it's all a scam and will never recover? Ah well that's exactly what we'd expect to hear at the bottom. No one on Hive seems to be that worried at all. We've all been through the ringer before and made it out on the other end just fine. This time is no different.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta



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23 comments
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Really fuckin glad that I joined hive 2 years ago.. glad I didnt have to mess around too much in the weeds.. BSC is a hell of a drug tho.

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Hive itself is a good friend for when I need to just jump in and write about whatever, open myself up, without being judged. It's beyond monetary value. At least for me. And I own no regularity or discipline in posting. I will fix that.

Thank for this article, It makes me see and analyze things from a different perspective, as well.

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By all accounts Hive could have just as easily spiked to over $10 from there. After all, Bitcoin went x3.5 higher than the previous all time high in 2017. Hive going x3.5 higher than Steem's all time high puts us at $24+. How wild would that be? One day.

Thissssss

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Thank you for your witness vote!
Have a !BEER on me!
To Opt-Out of my witness beer program just comment STOP below

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With so many developments coming to hive I believe 10$ hive is possible, we just have to keep believing in the development of hive

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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We are all calm because what we have already gone through this crypto winter we know will not last forever, some people even wanted this to happen so they could accumulate more tokens at a better price....

those who are intelligent and accumulate now are the ones who will benefit later

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It's pretty safe to say that if crypto doesn't crash any more from here, this bear market wasn't THAT terrible.

For BTC yeah.

you might find this interesting:

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!PGM
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You are right, I am less worried now than I was in 2018 when I experienced the first market crash. Now I continue to build and accumulate and prepare for the next bull wave.

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Hive moving to $10? I guess it's possible. We just have to believe. At this moment, I feel it's a great opportunity to accumulate more while the price is so down so that we can enjoy the benefits when it goes up.

Hive is great!!!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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Hive is one place I feel secured knowing that it's really not just a project built on a sand but on a rock .
It's very true that hive is what we build upon it, when all the false projects dies as they can not stand the test of time hive keep waxing strong because it has formidable platforms which makes a a real life kingdom expensive having kings and queens whose domains are protected and the citizens have no fear of sudden attack.

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I've even joked a few times that it could be a porn network that completely overshadows sites like Onlyfans.

Joke?

This is no joke! 😉

A Hive account will become the best alternative to OnlyFans.

We just need to switch how we think of communities.

We've named sites like LeoFinance and dPorn as "communities" with their own front-ends.

But each Hive account in itself, full of connected followers and loyal fans to its owner, is essentially a community of its own.

Onboarding your OnlyFans followers onto your Hive account and using front-ends like PeakD to display your content can be done right now.

But as you said, it's probably a flag war waiting to happen.

The real opportunity will come when someone develops a dApp that essentially allows you to plug and play your single Hive account into its own domain.

No more communities.

You are the community.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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"...it's probably a flag war waiting to happen."

It happened on Steem, years ago. The porn market was treated like spam and censored off the platform.

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Thanks god you did loose your account. It would have been a pain for you.. but for hive I am sure trusting it that it will sow a better seed to everyone

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One thing is different. The world economy is not in up only mode anymore. So we will see how it plays out.

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"The problem with this idea is that blockchain is nothing without a token to back it up. Without a token, there are no incentives. This makes it impossible to create a decentralized network..."

This is not factually correct. I have long noted that money is far less valuable than many other aspects of society, and among those aspects is free speech. Free speech has existentially important value, because it is the only means of sharing safety information that can enable people to avoid being killed or harmed. Money does not have that functionality.

Because of this fact, it is almost necessary that people will in fact have to create a decentralized network that will enable them to share safety information that censorship of centralized networks prevent from being shared. I have also pointed out that Hive/Steemit have failed to enable this network by failing to prevent financialization to subsume curation and pervert it's essential use.

Opinion flagging is an existential threat to free speech on Hive, and that is why.

People that cannot into running a node will enjoy the fruits of their participation in natural evolution. Evolution happens. People that cannot ascertain threats will suffer the realization of the harms threatened, and only free speech enables that safety data to be ascertained. Dozens of accounts in memory have been censored off Hive, and the profiteers that have suppressed the safety information those accounts shared in order to profit from that suppression are a threat to the people that comprise the Hive community.

Decentralized networks that do enable safety information to be shared will arise, and Hive has a head start at being such a network. In order to become that network, it will have to surmount the suppression of safety data that presently prevents it from serving that function.

I suspect it will not, because most Hive users do not understand these facts, and are more concerned with money than the existential threats humanity is actually faced with today, particularly the threats money and it's abuse pose. Banksters control governments, corporations, and most of the goods and services necessary to civil society today, and they are using that control to force people into intolerable circumstances gradually, so the banksters can gain possession of people and profit.

I am here because networks that enable people to prevent those harms from befalling them will happen, and Hive still has a head start and could provide that necessary communications network.

I also think few appreciate the actual problem the LBRY ruling poses to Hive. The Hive token could quite possibly be a security according to that precedent. IANAL and really don't know, but the negative potential of regulatory action is also an existential threat to Hive.

Mark Moss explains this here. Hive may actually only have value without it's token, if the worst case scenario(s) come to bear on it.

Compared to being caged and owned like chattel, starving, being deprived of essential goods and services like electricity, fuel, and information, money has no value whatsoever. There is a coming sea change to money as the WEF seeks to implement CBDCs in order to prevent people from having access to actual money with which they can conduct transactions at will, and Hive isn't tolerable to the banksters as either money or free speech.

Hive could survive, but not without rationally valuing both free speech and it's token.

We'll see whether it does.

Thanks!

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Happy to be building here and happy to be bridging to Lightning because for sure there is going to be a ton of useful on and off ramps we can use.

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I totally agree with you in everything you express in this post. I always tell people to stay calm, that this "storm" in the crypto world will pass too. Most people panic because they don't understand that cryptocurrencies are much more than their face value, they are much more than their apparent price. Cryptocurrencies are really worth based on their intrinsic potential and usefulness, and that will be what will make many crypto and projects stay in the future while many others will desappear.

But as a whole, cryptocurrencies will withstand all of this current headwind, and any future headwinds, because they are the future of the world in more ways than anyone can currently explain. Or at least this is what I think about all of this.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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I am bullish on the HIVE ecosystem but what you described about not being able to power down fast enough was all to real to me. Also experience it to a lesser extent with other blockchains having to "unbond" etc. Personally I feel like the power down length is too long which I have said before. It doesn't seem to keep the price peaks and drops from being any less traumatic. That is why I liked DTube's always liquid stake concept. Other issues exist there though. Wish the community wouldn't have fractured up like that but people want dominating power and control over the direction of things. It's like churches in the midwest. Go to a 1000 person one horse town and there are suddenly 6 churches because no one could get along and kept fracturing off.

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