Jupiler League Season Updated Statistics
It continues to be a big challenge beating the betting market this season so I'm doing an extra one of these to compared to the last time there was an international break
Current Standings
Union managed to climb to the top which is actually quite crazy given how many players they lost and the fact that they also play in Europe playing a B-Quad before the Liverpool match. The most remarkable thing however was that there was a statistical study done before the season which showed them as the main title candidate having the bighest % which everyone including myself thought was a complete joke. Kortrijk & Westerlo are still the bottom 2 teams while Standard was clearly enforced and managed to climb out of the danger zone. It remains a league where everyone can win any given match and so far the top teams have not yet shown their best form.
Best Teams against Asian Handicap
One of the metrics I use to determine if team sare overvalued/undervalued is to loop how they are doing against the handicaps they have been assigned. So far this ranking look like this:
| Team | Previously | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Sint-Truiden | +29.83% ROI | +34.80% ROI |
| Union | +30.20% ROI | +34.20% ROI |
| RWDM | +10.44% ROI | +26.22% ROI |
| Anderlecht | +53.92% ROI | +20.35% ROI |
| OH Leuven | -11.08% ROI | +2.55% ROI |
| Genk | -17.80% ROI | +1.80% ROI |
| Eupen | +33.50% ROI | -1.60% ROI |
| Mechelen | +29.08% ROI | -3.75% ROI |
| Antwerp | +4.00% ROI | -9.20% ROI |
| Kortrijk | -43.50% ROI | -12.30% ROI |
| Standard | -58.25% ROI | -18.95% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | +12.17% ROI | -22.70% ROI |
| Club Brugge | +17.00% ROI | -23.70% ROI |
| Westerlo | -66.67% ROI | -24.15% ROI |
| AA Gent | +6.50% ROI | -27.25% ROI |
| Charleroi | -35.00% ROI | -31.80% ROI |
Stvv continues to be one of the most underrated teams based on their stats (or the most lucky depending on how you look at it). Cercle Brugge & Club Brugge continue to be overvalued based on their performances so far while AA Gent also seems to be in that camp.
Highest Goals Team against Asian Total
| Team | Total Average Goals | ROI Over |
|---|---|---|
| Eupen | 3.50 | +34.60% ROI |
| Union | 3.40 | +15.10% ROI |
| Westerlo | 3.00 | +1.40% ROI |
| RWDM | 2.90 | -14.85% ROI |
| OH Leuven | 3.30 | -16.80% ROI |
| Anderlecht | 2.60 | -18.95% ROI |
| Sint-Truiden | 2.30 | -21.40% ROI |
| Club Brugge | 3.40 | -24.80% ROI |
| Charleroi | 2.30 | -31.30% ROI |
| Kortrijk | 3.00 | -31.40% ROI |
| Antwerp | 2.20 | -31.80% ROI |
| AA Gent | 2.60 | -32.10% ROI |
| Mechelen | 2.30 | -32.90% ROI |
| Genk | 2.60 | -42.50% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | 2.30 | -55.20% ROI |
| Standard | 1.70 | -59.70% ROI |
The trend still seems to be that many lines are set too high with just 3 teams that have a positive ROI on these.
1H Standings
| Rank | Team | Avergage Points |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Antwerp | 2.10 |
| 02 | Anderlecht | 1.90 |
| 03 | Union | 1.90 |
| 04 | Genk | 1.60 |
| 05 | Eupen | 1.50 |
| 06 | Stvv | 1.50 |
| 07 | Standard | 1.50 |
| 08 | Club Brugge | 1.20 |
| 09 | Cercle Brugge | 1.20 |
| 10 | Mechelen | 1.00 |
| 11 | Charleroi | 1.00 |
| 12 | OHL | 1.00 |
| 13 | AA Gent | 1.00 |
| 14 | RWDM | 0.80 |
| 15 | Kortrijk | 0.70 |
| 16 | Westerlo | 0.70 |
Antwerp remains the best 1H team in the league followed by Anderlecht & Union. AA Gent surprisingly is ranking really low.
Conclusion
I'm looking forward for the league continuing and will keep this data in mind when trying to put the puzzle pieces together to find the value spots going forward.
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