Jupiler League Season Start Statistics
The Season hasn't really started out as I had hoped both as a combination of bets generally not being good enough and getting hit by some bad variance. However, nothing is lost yet and there are a full 24 weeks left including European Football with 5 Belgian Teams and a lot more playoff matches afterward. I continue to keep stats and now is a good time to take a closer look at them with an eye to doing better going forward.
Current Standings
Some teams took a better start than expected (Anderlecht / Mechelen / Union / Eupen, while others completely missed their start against expectation (Westerlo).
Best Teams against Asian Handicap
One of the metrics I use to determine if team sare overvalued/undervalued is to loop how they are doing against the handicaps they have been assigned. So far this ranking look like this:
| Team | ROI |
|---|---|
| Anderlecht | +53.92% ROI |
| Eupen | +33.50% ROI |
| Union | +30.20% ROI |
| Sint-Truiden | +29.83% ROI |
| Mechelen | +29.08% ROI |
| Club Brugge | +17.00% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | +12.17% ROI |
| RWDM | +10.44% ROI |
| AA Gent | +6.50% ROI |
| Antwerp | +4.00% ROI |
| OH Leuven | -11.08% ROI |
| Genk | -17.80% ROI |
| Charleroi | -35.00% ROI |
| Kortrijk | -43.50% ROI |
| Standard | -58.25% ROI |
| Westerlo | -66.67% ROI |
One of the factors that needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these numbers is the luck factor as Anderlecht clearly has had a favorable streak in this regard while teams like Charleroi and Genk haven't had that on their side.
Highest Goals Team against Asian Total
Aside from the general lines, totals tend to be an interesting market as some teams naturally have higher goal matches which doesn't mean they also do well against the total line as those often are overly adjuusted.
| Team | Total Average Goals | ROI Over |
|---|---|---|
| AA Gent | 3.40 | +35.80% ROI |
| Eupen | 3.17 | +29.33% ROI |
| Westerlo | 3.33 | +20.67% ROI |
| Union | 3.40 | +13.2% ROI |
| Kortrijk | 3.50 | -2.50% ROI |
| Club Brugge | 3.50 | -5.00% ROI |
| RWDM | 3.6 | -14.40% ROI |
| Antwerp | 2.80 | -20.40% ROI |
| OH Leuven | 3.33 | -27.67% ROI |
| Mechelen | 2.33 | -36.67% ROI |
| Sint-Truiden | 1.83 | -58% ROI |
| Anderlecht | 2.00 | -58.08% ROI |
| Genk | 1.60 | -61.00% ROI |
| Charleroi | 1.83 | -74.75% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | 1.67 | -83.33% ROI |
| Standard | 1.50 | -100% ROI |
Generally, it looks like the total lines have been set too high as betting under on all 45 matches would have resulted in +23.18% ROI overall.
1H Standings
| Rank | Team | Avergage Points |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Antwerp | 2.40 |
| 02 | Club Brugge | 2.00 |
| 03 | Eupen | 1.83 |
| 04 | Anderlecht | 1.83 |
| 05 | Union | 1.80 |
| 06 | Mechelen | 1.50 |
| 07 | Cercle Brugge | 1.50 |
| 08 | Stvv | 1.33 |
| 09 | Genk | 1.20 |
| 10 | AA Gent | 1.20 |
| 11 | Standard | 1.00 |
| 12 | Charleroi | 0.83 |
| 13 | Kortrijk | 0.83 |
| 14 | Westerlo | 0.67 |
| 15 | OHL | 0.67 |
| 16 | RWDM | 0.60 |
Conclusion
I'm looking forward for the league continuing and will keep this data in mind when trying to put the puzzle pieces together to find the value spots going forward.
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Thanks for bringing happening around the sport to our view. I think the reason why some teams performed better than expected could be as a result of good player the team had bought in the last transfer windows.