China news roundup / Nachrichten 2021-09-21

over 2 years ago

China could accelerate military efforts in response to U.S.-Australia submarine deal, analyst says

"Wyne’s sentiment was shared by Michael Klare, a professor in peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. Klare warned that the security partnership among the U.S., the U.K. and Australia may not be “a path to peace and stability” in the Indo-Pacific.
“Tensions between U.S. and China were rising before this. There were rising tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea; there were increased U.S. naval engagements in those areas, China has responded in kind — so you have a build up in military tensions in Asia,”"

--- Someone hasn't been paying attention. It's China that has been increasing military activity in the South China Sea & the East China Sea. To say that China is just 'responding' is mere bullshit.

Xi’s army: from ‘hiding and biding’ to building China’s dream

"It will be particularly important for western countries to ramp up donations of vaccines to countries in need – this would provide a stark contrast to China’s decision to provide the bulk of its vaccines through commercial sales"

--- One problem is, that eg. the EU is usually helping rather quietly. While the CCP insists on ministers greeting the Chinese vaccines at the airport, the EU simply sends their stuff & doesn't care too much whether it is publicised or not.

"In May, the armoured division of the PLA’s 73rd Group Army conducted a day of live-fire exercises and amphibious beach landings, in a show of determination and capability to unite Taiwan."

--- Hmm, Taiwan seems pretty united to me.

Evergrande: will it collapse and what would happen if it did?

"Evergrande also put pressure on staff to lend it money. The loans were presented as high-interest investment schemes, but those who did not take part risked losing their bonuses. This month, Evergrande stopped paying back its employees."

--- Pyramid scheme with Chinese characteristics.

"Evergrande also owes money to about 171 domestic banks and 121 other financial firms. Therefore, if the company defaults completely, there will be consequences for the banking system. A credit crunch could follow"

--- Meh. That only depends on what the CCP wants. They tell the banks how much they are supposed to give out at loans.

"UBS estimates there are 10 developers with potentially risky positions with combined contract sales of 1.86tn yuan – or 2.7 times Evergrande’s size. In other words, Evergrande is only the tip of the iceberg"

--- That is the bigger risk here. The whole property sector could be dragged down by Evergrande.

"Foreign holders of Evergrande’s dollar-denominated bonds – which total about $20bn – wouldn’t have much say in what happened and would therefore face a wipeout"

--- Normal for China. Will foreign investors learn now?

Cramer says U.S. economy unlikely to face major damage from struggling Chinese developer Evergrande

"“The bottom line? I don’t think the Evergrande fiasco will do serious damage to the U.S. economy, even as there are some groups that could get hit, but it does give investors a great excuse to do some selling,” Cramer said. “Just sit this one out please, then you can buy stocks with zero China connection at better prices and not have to worry about a place you had never heard of until today called Evergrande.”"

--- Yep.

China keeps virus at bay at high cost ahead of Olympics

"the abrupt, severe response to outbreaks has left would-be tourists jittery about traveling to places they might be barred from leaving"

--- Not only could they be barred from leaving, if they are finally allowed to leave, they have go into quarantine for 2-3 weeks in their hometown.

"China’s “zero tolerance” strategy of trying to isolate every case and stop transmission has helped keep the country where the virus first was detected in late 2019 largely free of disease."

--- Largely. Seems, there have always been some infections somewhere. The CCP keeps blaming foreigners or people returning from abroad, but more likely in the countryside they were not quite as successful in keeping the Wuhan Virus in check as in the cities.

"while regulators have given emergency approval to nine coronavirus vaccines, most are made by local companies Sinopharm or Sinovac. China has yet to approve BioNTech, Moderna or other vaccines used abroad.
“As far as the vaccine strategy is, it’s been very successful, the trouble is the Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines are not very efficacious against delta,”"

--- But they are Chinese. & therefore they must be superior, & therefore we don't need or want any foreign vaccines.

Chinese city of Harbin orders spas, mahjong salons to shut after COVID-19 case confirmed

"Religious activities were also suspended, tourist attractions were ordered to operate at half capacity, and visits were banned at retirement homes.
The restrictions come as China celebrates the Mid-Autumn Festival on Tuesday, and ahead of the National Day golden week holiday starting on Oct 1"

--- The virus seems to be jumping back & forth between south & north. Doesn't look like there will be new records in holiday travel this year.

"China on Tuesday reported 72 new confirmed coronavirus cases for Sep 20, down from 49 a day earlier"

--- I'm not a maths genius, but wouldn't that be 'up'?

DiDi co-founder Liu told colleagues she plans to leave

"Liu, 43, has in recent weeks told some associates that she expected the government to eventually take control of DiDi and appoint new management"

--- No, no, no! Totally impossible. Haven't numerous experts told us in recent months that emperor Xi would never go so far as to revert to a state-led economy?
(If it actually happens, it might be some kind of test balloon for the CCP. How far can we go before Wall Street actually gets wary?)

Deserted Factories Show How China Electric Car Boom Went Too Far

"Bordrin and Byton represent the flip side of China’s EV success. While home-grown stars like Nio Inc. and Xpeng Inc. have gone on to raise billions of dollars and are now selling cars in numbers that rival Tesla Inc., scores more have fallen by the wayside, unable to raise the crazy amounts of capital needed to make automobiles at scale"

--- Nio for example only survived because it got billions in government money. But some people still think that the market is alive & well in China:

"“This is kind of the classic capitalist competitive shakeout,” said Gary Dvorchak, a Beijing-based managing director at investment advisory Blueshirt Group LLC."

--- Nonsense. Is it classic capitalist that the one with the highest subsidies survives?

For 16M Vocational High School Students, Hope Is Hard to Come By

"Often overlooked, vocational high school students make up roughly 40% of the high school-age population in China — more than 16 million kids at last count. Yet the quality of education they receive is low, their schools suffer from disproportionately high drop-out rates, and their job prospects are dim.
[...] Even if they do study hard, they may never have the chance to apply what they learn. Some students told me that the machinery tools they study in their school workshops are completely different from those used in factories today, while others have said that the only useful takeaway from their school experience was the mandatory military training. One student explained the utility of these drills: “They make you stand up all the time, which you have to be able to do if you want to assemble things at a factory.”"

--- That's the famous Chinese education system away from the major tier-one cities like Beijing or Shanghai. China scores so high in something like PISA only because the hinterland is not included.

"Until at least the early 1990s, attending a secondary vocational school was something to be proud of in China, and students were able to get enviable jobs upon graduation. What changed wasn’t so much the schools, but the disappearance of socialist class discourse and the collapse of worker power and identity."

--- Yeah, right. Socialist class discourse will make education much better.

FBI director says new probes into China launched 'every 12 hours'

Detained Chinese Rights Lawyer Tortured Again After Complaining About Torture

What happened to the underwater train being built from China to the US?

Hong Kong leader defends election after single non-establishment figure picked for 1,500-strong committee

--- 60 Minutes (AUS): "War with China: Are we closer than we think? | Under Investigation"

--- China Unscripted: "Tell-All Book Reveals How Business Is REALLY Done in China"

--- ABC News (AUS): Will the Chinese government let Evergrande collapse?

--- CNBC: Jim Cramer: China's Evergrande 'contagion' stops at U.S. borders

EU unterstützt Frankreich im U-Boot-Streit

"Die EU-Staaten haben Frankreich ihre Unterstützung im Streit mit Australien und den USA um das geplatzte U-Boot-Geschäft zugesichert.
[...] Bereits gestern hatte EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursula von der Leyen das Vorgehen der USA, Australiens und Großbritanniens gegenüber Frankreich als "nicht akzeptabel" bezeichnet. ""

--- Wo war diese Solidarität, als China auf Litauen losging? EU-Solidarität gibt es anscheinend nur, wenn sie nichts kostet.

Evergrande: Droht ein chinesisches Lehman-Desaster?

""Ich sehe gar keine Gefährdung unseres eigenen Finanzsystems", sagt auch Horst Löchel von der Frankfurt School. "Es geht mehr um die Stimmung: Soll man sich in China noch engagieren? Soll man dort noch investieren? Soll man noch chinesische Anleihen oder Aktien kaufen? Von hier aus gesehen sind es solche Fragestellungen, die für Unsicherheit im Markt sorgen.""

--- Es gibt auch keine großartige Gefährdung des chinesischen Finanzsystems. Dafür müßte es schon ganz dicke kommen.

Kooperation auf Augenhöhe?

"Xi Jinping, Staatspräsident und Generalsekretär der Kommunistischen Partei Chinas, unterstrich in einer Rede im Mai 2021, dass "wissenschaftliche und technologische Innovation zu einem Hauptschlachtfeld des internationalen strategischen Wettbewerbs" geworden sei"

--- Hat er das wirklich gesagt? Ach, das meint er bestimmt nicht so. Wissenschaft ist doch unabhängig von der Politik & deshalb müssen wir unbedingt mit China zusammenarbeiten. Kaiser Xi wird bestimmt so nett sein, & chinesischen Wissenschaftlern politisch völlig unbelastetes Arbeiten ermöglichen.

Chinas Staatsreederei kauft sich im Hamburger Hafen ein

"Kritik kommt von der Gewerkschaft Verdi. Sie fürchtet einen wachsenden Druck auf die Beschäftigten und die Tarifverträge, wenn Cosco als ausländischer Investor mit einem wesentlichen Anteil am Tollerort beteiligt ist. Die HHLA versucht dagegen, die Bedenken zu zerstreuen. Durch den Einstieg der Chinesen solle der Terminal mehr Ladung bekommen, wodurch es mehr Arbeit für die Beschäftigten gebe"

--- Mehr Arbeit bedeutet dann weniger 'Druck'?
Naja, interessanter ist wohl, daß einem chinesischen Staatsbetrieb erlaubt wird, sich in deutsche Infrastruktur einzukaufen. Was könnte schon schiefgehen?