When Will Bitcoin Peak This Market Cycle? (S2F VS Logarithmic Regression)
The question on everyone's minds - when will Bitcoin peak this market cycle?
In this video, we'll be attempting to answer that question using two of the most widely accepted price valuation models for Bitcoin - stock to flow and logarithmic regression.
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What is the logarithmic progression model really based on? The stock-to-flow model is anchored to the halving events. Because the s2f model also predicts the valuations of other forms of commodity money such as gold and solver, I'm inclined to give it a lot of credence.
I agree - I prefer the S2F model as well! Logarithmic regression still quite convincing though because it's essentially just an extrapolation of all the historic price data projected into the future
There is merit to logarithmic regression model but what it predicts is that the delay between the halving events and the subsequent price rallies get longer as time progresses. The s2f model only predicts that the price oscillation will attenuate. I suppose it makes sense to assume there will be a delay as well. The 2016 halving was on July 9. Bitcoin topped out on December 18 2017. That's one year and a little over five months. This year's halving will take place some time in early May. If the delay is the same, Bitcoin should top out late October to early November 2021 according to the s2f model. I'm hoping the big rally will be too obvious to miss. It was during both of the previous cycles.
Probably, Bitcoin and a few of the ALT coins will be part of the future as currencies.
Essentially, we know that cryptos are part of the future. I am not going to speculate in the short term! Instead, I just look at technical analysis and some fundamental analysis.
Fair point!
Summer 2022 🤑
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