Playing the Speculation game: Part 42 (Moore's Law)

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value speculation.png

For the record and for the most part, I hate the speculation game. When I open my feed for crypto news on my phone would you like to guess the last thing I want to see?

Bitcoin could drop to $3000 or spike to $20k!!!

No duh? Wow, how insightful. It's amazing how a lot of the information on Steemit blogs is so much more useful than people that are actually being paid to write this garbage on traditional news outlets.

Last time I spoke of Bitcoin speculation I was making wild claims that there would be a winter bull run. Obviously, that didn't happen, but arguably, something even better did happen.

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Correct!

My longstanding prediction that Bitcoin is doubling every year was proven right again with surprising accuracy.


20132014201520162017201820192020
$100$200$400$800$1600$3200$6400$12800

2019

JanFebMarAprilMayJune
$3467$3733$4000$4267$4533$4800
JulyAugSeptOctNovDec
$5067$5333$5600$5867$6133$6400

Essentially, Bitcoin bottomed out at $6400 twice at the end of the year, signalling a huge buying opportunity for anyone who believes in this simple prediction model. In fact, even at $7500, Bitcoin is still at a great price to buy today, because by the end of this month that baseline value will have creeped up to the $7000 level.


2020

JanFebMarAprilMayJune
$6933$7467$8000$8533$9067$9600
JulyAugSeptOctNovDec
$10133$10667$11200$11733$12267$12800

Now, it makes sense that I was wrong about the winter bull run. Having back to back summer/winter bull runs is not very common, and Bitcoin was still in the first half of its 4 year cycle, meaning it's usually a bit less volatile during that time. Arguably, the summer bull run shouldn't of even happened and probably only did so because of the wild Bakkt speculation and institutional investment mania.

However, none of my bogus predictions matter if this simple Moore's Law prediction remains consistent. In two weeks I'll have been shouting this prediction from the rooftops for a year now and it's proven itself about a dozen times since then.

Investment Conclusion

When Bitcoin hit's the baseline doubling curve, you buy. When Bitcoin is well above that curve, you sell. It's very simple, and if it continues to be this surprisingly accurate, everyone who follows this advice will become filthy rich relatively quickly...

or you could just hodl and 'only' double your money every year... lol.

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Going forward.

We still have a Bitcoin Halving event coming up mid May. This is a golden opportunity to swing trade the speculation wave. I know now is a good time to buy in not only because Bitcoin is near the baseline value, but also because no one is talking about it anymore.

Back when Bitcoin was spiking to $13k everyone was talking about the halvening, and that was full on 6 months ago. Now we are six months closer to the event, and everyone is silent because Bitcoin is 'only' worth $7.5k? Wow, get real! Now is a great time to buy.

Although I was wrong about a winter bull run, I still believe in the halving pump and dump. I expect the price to move up from here until late March and I expect the dump to come early to mid April and last into June. If I'm wrong, I've still been able to count on my Moore's Law prediction to be accurate, which means I can easily adjust my predictions around that seemingly rock-solid foundation accordingly.



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It's amazing how a lot of the information on Steemit blogs is so much more useful than people that are actually being paid to write this garbage on traditional news outlets.

Amen

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First John McAfee backs off his $1 million prediction and now @edicted is promoting the idea of "only doubling" each year.

What is next?


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$250k Bitcoin Dec 2021
$56k Bitcoin Dec 2022

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We will see how the BTC moves forward

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