Analysis of Steem's historical prices and how or when to sell your Steem.

in #steemleo9 months ago (edited)

Steem is in the market for trading for three years and 8 months or 1335 days according CoinmarketCap data.

Based on that data we can do some historical analysis on Steem's price such as how long Steem stayed above certain price level. For a price level, I take low of the day as my level. It means that the whole day price stayed above that level.

PriceDaysPercentage
$0.101,31498
$0.201,03277
$0.5069552
$145434
$217713
$5151
Total1335100

Interestingly, Steem was below 10 cents only for 21 days or 1% of the time. Therefore, we can confidently say that Steem's floor price is 10 cents. Or, one should never sell Steem below 10 cents.

On the other hand, Steem was above $5 only for 15 days. Having 13 weeks for power down, it is hard to sell near the peak. Powering up is a dual edged sword: you can't sell during big serge in price unless you stay liquid or you will miss 20% APR per year. For APR, I took current option of 18% from delegation to @leo.voter and 2% from staking (i.e. PoS).

However, it looks like during the surge it is better to be in liquid form. For that one has to start power down before the peak ($2 would have been a good sign in December, 2017).

I did once a back test on my 10K SP during 2018 bull run. What I found that if I started power down at the day of peak (e.g. $8.5), then when I get an installment in a week, if I wait a day or two then sell then my average selling price for Steem would have been around $4.5-5. It would have been quite a decent amount of money since my average buying cost for a Steem on that time was $1.2. Unfortunately, I did nothing thinking Steem going for $100!

Now come back to data analysis.

Steem stayed above 20 cents at 77% of the time or 1077 days out of 1335 days. We can argue that Steem will stay above 20 cents most of its life time.

steem_history1.png

Interestingly, Steem was above 50 cents half of its lifetime. Therefore, selling Steem at 50 cents would be a logical option. Or, one may design an income source based on 50 cents a Steem.

For example, if one earns 1000 Steem from blogging, curating, delegating both Steem and tribe tokens. Then one can consider that he/she is earning $500 a month. He/she has to wait long enough for Steem price to reach 50 cents and sell continuously on that time. If Steem stays pretty above 50 cents for many days then it would be a bonus.

Steem stayed above $1 for 454 days or 34% or one-third of the time.

Steem also stayed above $2 for 177 days or almost a year out of 3 years 8 months.

From my observation, it would be better to power down all Steem when bull runs begin (i.e. hard to know) or it reaches above 50 cents. Also, it would be wise to wait for sudden price surge during the peak of the bull market. The clue is that that time will be after BTC breaks ATH and reach a very higher ATH.

If history repeats itself then then we have some insight when to sell Steem. However, it is very unlikely that history will repeat exactly in same way.

There is an another caveat. If one powers down his/her monthly earning, earning may drop since inflation is decreasing and competition for reward pool can be harder. Therefore, also, form the historical price point, Steem or tribe tokens are no way near to provide full time income in the developed country unless one has millions of Steem.

However, in the developing country one may achieve that landmark with substantial amount of Steem. However, in that case, one needs some backup buffer. Since Steem stayed half of the time above 50 cents, then one should borrow from the buffer to survive that amount of time when it reaches 50 cents again. It still depends on one's financial conditions.

I would be delighted to know about any full time Steemians who's sole income is from Steem ecosystem: bloggers, curators, developers, passive investors (i.e. delegators), entrepreneurs (e.g. DApp founders) other than Steemit Inc. employees and top witnesses. If someone is out there and shared their stories, please guide me their stories so that we can know form their experience.

Disclaimer: This opinion is not a financial advice, it my personal perspective and opinion. Please seek professionals for financial decisions. This opinion is only for educational purpose.

Image sources: Most images are open sourced (e.g. Pixabay, Wikimedia etc.) with Creative common license. Some images are used with due courtesy to respected owners.

Thanks for reading.
@dtrade
Cryptominer , occasional trader and tech blogger since 2013

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Love the stats :)

Somehow I had 1$ as a real price of steem.

Intersting to see its about 0.5 .... at least for this time period. I think 5 years is more relevant timeframe but the above will do it for now.

The backup buffer for a lot of steemians came from Splinterlands.

Also I think @flauwy had some full time steemian experiance, to answer your question.

Thanks for great feedback ;)

 9 months ago Reveal Comment