Seymour Butts exposed on the chain

in steem •  9 months ago 

Since @fknmayhem is upvoting me on my titles now... ;D

One of the things that is also going to be interested under 50/50 curation is that bidbots are going to have more of their earnings exposed out on the chain. Under 50/50, the purchase price will have to come down in order to account for the lowering of the author rewards, and in order to give delegators a "good enough" return, they will have to distribute curation returns to them. @ocdb is the first one that did this at 100% and takes no cut for the bot operations.

So nothing changes?

The problem of course comes if people do take the role of curator seriously and choose to use their 2.5x downvote allocation per day and some of those land onto bidbot boosted posts. While the author is likely to lose significant amounts, the bidbot takings are also going to be affected, which means the distribution back to the delegators is affected too.

A manual curator who picks targets that aren't going to get downvoted is likely going to get a pretty good return, but many of the bidbot purchasers are likely to take some degree of downvotes and while the author takes a loss, the delegators take a potential loss from their upvote allocation ROI.

Firstly, there can essentially be no guaranteed returns on bidbots after HF21, but I am sure if someone spends 200 SBD promoting their post that got smashed back to zero, they are going to complain. How many people are there going to be dealing with complaints? Well the answer is "use at your own risk" of course, but who is going to spend 200 SBD buying then?

While they might buy lower to fly under the radar, that means that the bidbot needs more buyers to use the vote quoata to get a decent return for delegators. So, how many more and how many are going to take the risk when everyone is incentivized to downvote since it doesn't cost and, it goes back into the pool?

50/50 makes negative curation even more effective against bidbot abusers because it puts more of the earnings out on the chain and takes less to create a loss. For example, a 100 dollar post under 25/75 has 75 dollars for the author and may have 5 dollars profit on it. At full powered voting, I can take that post down 1 dollar so there would need to be 5 orcas willing to DV it 100% for it to incur a loss. Under 50/50 though while they will pay less for the vote, to create a loss on it will only require 2.5 orcas to DV it into the loss.

That is a significant difference and if consistent, that author will think twice about buying to that vote level. If they are an abuser, they will keep lowering their bid in the hope that they will finally get ignored but this means it takes less and less to provide them a loss. The bidbot may not only lose a customer but, they will also lose curation on every downvote their customers incur.

When earnings are primarily through wallet sends, they aren't exposed to any community risk factors but with 50/50 curation required for ROI for delegators and since the purchase price is lower, earnings become much more volatile as they are exposed to community curation.

The difference between @ocdb and other bidbots is that all authors that purchase from it have been manually curated as authors over the last 2 years to be added to the whitelist, whereas most other bots have blacklists and an infraction needs to occur and be caught before they are blacklisted. People earn the privilege to use @ocdb through content creation, other lose the ability to use them through poor content creation. It is a subtle but interesting difference to note.

What I do think however is that after HF21, if people do use their downvotes as they please (but use them), all buyers regardless of quality will have to think about firstly whether they think their content is good enough to be boosted as high as they will boost it and, whether they are willing to take a loss on the purchase if the community disagrees. While this puts no onus of responsibility on the bidbots themselves, if enough people change their buying behavior and purchase lower votes to lessen risk, they will make a lower ROI for delegators. At what point do those who care about ROI start moveing their delegations?

For me, I have a delegation at @ocdb that I will likely lessen considerably so that I can downvote but, even now I don't check what my returns are or if I could get better elsewhere, I am content having it go to whitelisted authors and sometimes I go through and vote on the list too as there is some okay content there that I like. Most of them aren't going to get downvoted on their content quality at least. Some may. Agreement or disagreement of content type or reward might come into play.

For the last 2 years, bidbots have had a very stable financial operation as so little of their income was exposed and that which was (the 25% curation) had little chance of being affected much as there is so little community will to downvote without incentive. That changes post HF21 and the community has much more power over the allocation of the pool through both where they place positive votes and where they negative votes and, they have incentive in both curation, visibility and to increase the author reward pool to use those downvotes.

All of the changes coming disrupt the system enormously and while it isn't likely to be an easy adjustment, I do think that in time it will be for the better on average for all participants on the blockchain who are looking to improve and add to Steem, not just extract.

The more exposure to the community content gets, votes get, ROI gets - the better the balance becomes over time and the randomization and complexity means that even though many will try to game it, it is harder to predict any one aspect as there are so many factors intertwined and affected by people.

Are you a person?
We'll see.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]

I had more to say but will push this out fast without a review, because it is Daddy Daughter Day and @smallsteps woke up from her nap and wants to play :)

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We are working on some changes for @ocdb I think people are going to like in HF21, looking forward to how it will play out!

This I'm curious about... ever since being whitelisted for @ocdb, I've not bothered with anything else. I just use @ocdb for the articles that I've spent a good deal of time on. I was wondering how the changes in the reward distribution would affect things though...

We will of course adjust the bids with 50/50 but one thing that will complicate things a bit will be the curve up to 16 steem post rewards, that's the part that's taking most of our time and we're hoping to come up with a good solution to it. We have a few ideas in mind.

Cool, I trust you guys completely!

That is an interesting teaser. I think that all of them are going to have to adjust, and then adjust and then adjust. I really hope the community steps up and does their job this time as it lays in our hands.

Interested to hear about them. Just dropped a hint then exited huh? 🤣 Lucky I'm patient. Any idea on when HF21 will deploy?

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You said something on the lines of using the stake at @ocdb for manual curation after the hf21 kicks in. What about that?

Also how does one get whitelisted for ocdb? I wanna be whitelisted :p

Each time I read your posts I learn more! I am pretty sure a lot of the things you know go completely over my head, but even if I only gain a portion of the knowledge that you are sharing, it's always more than I knew before I read it! 😏

Glad some people get something out of it :D
Hope you are doing well.

I'm mostly doing just fine. Thanks for asking. Hope you guys are all doing OK, too.

I always read your posts which I find entertaining but your logic escapes me. Now let's look at bid bots, so they sell a person 200 SBD worth of votes, this is pure profit for the bid bot it can certainly reduce the price for its vote to levels that will please the user say turn that 200 into 80, at the same time its curation rewards will be double so this bid bot will be even more appealing to those who don't want to work and delegate their SP to bid bots, so the bid bots vote will be even more valuable making it more attractive for users.
As for downvotes, I don't think so, a retaliation round of downvotes by a bid bot would make a lot of the downvote lovers think again about downvoting them, this apart from the fact that a lot of big accounts are bid bot delegators. And just by watching how downvotes have stopped @haejin and @berniesanders who actually taunts people to downvote him, I'd say this idea is completely insane.

I tend to share your pessimistic appraisal of the situation that is likely to occur post HF21. I'm all for @ocdb being used to spread Steem Power as far as wide and as quickly as possible to be used as a base layer token only, as well as actual content curation being done in actual communities with each their own Steem-Engine token.

If it fails, it is the entire community to blame this time - not whales :)

What you are talking about is steem being an investment coin only. That is where it is headed eventually but this gives people a chance to have some stake. Most are going to miss that chance .

Agreed.

I'm baffled as to why so few of the whitelisted are using @ocdb.

Some are dormant or gone, some don't agree, some don't know, some don't recognize the opportunity, some don't like the risk (they don't understand the bot)... many reasons. It has helped a few hundred grow some, and a few dozen grow significantly. Hopefully when the time comes, they use that little red button with the stake they gained =)

I'm one of the few dozen. I've gained thousands of SP in the last six months thanks to @ocdb. Last autumn was depressing. I could easily have given up. Then @harkar told me he'd suggested that I be added to the list and that I had been accepted. I have a moral obligation to curate well. Speaking of curation, I might switch over to a predominantly curating role after HF21. If the price starts going up again next year, it means a lot of dormant and new users will show up again. It will be harder to earn STEEM. But with the 50/50 split, curators with some stake can earn pretty well too.

so they sell a person 200 SBD worth of votes, this is pure profit for the bid bot it can certainly reduce the price for its vote to levels that will please the user say turn that 200 into 80

No it can't. because the delegators want an ROI and they can go and curate for more than that. the curation rewards go to the bot and can be distributed but the buyer isn't going to pay the same as now, they are going to be paying less. introduce a few flags and that buyer loses the profit easily so, why buy? no many will wear a loss for long. the lower they drop the price, the more appealing curating looks.

As for downvotes, I don't think so, a retaliation round of downvotes by a bid bot would make a lot of the downvote lovers think again about downvoting them,

You think that is what they would do? :D I will gladly take their flags if that is their business model. THis is the first time in Steem's life that it really is up to the community. It is put up or shut up time.

You see bots don't make money off of curation that is what they give back to their delegators, their profit comes from the vote buyer buying the vote, and they can give a 30 SBD over the 50% to the delegator and still keep 50 SBD for themselves just by having a bot less profit but still profit with no risk, even lowering the buying price from 200 to 80.
And you have to be realistic man, the bid bots are owned and delegated to by the people pushing for HF21 you think they are going to screw themselves?

That is not how they work at all.

OK, look if HF21 is a success I will apologize to you for doubting your opinion, if it isn't I expect the same from you. Agree?

Firstly, make sure you know how the bots work at least to some degree.

And no. There are going to be successes and failures and depending on a person's opinion, what fails for one is a success for another.

But the success would be easy to measure, a majority of people satisfied with how things work out, like I get a lot of votes from curators who are after those juicy curator rewards that will make them change their voting habits, my rewards going up because of the linear curve which will let me reap a lot more once I get to a certain amount of votes and I guess the disappearance of bid bots, plagiarism, self upvotes, and other bad habits seen so often on Steemit, I think all can be measured.

You see if things go like I think they will there will only be a small amount of people who are more or less heavily invested in Steem who will profit from HF21, but I think you believe HF21 will be a boon to a majority, that is why I made that proposal to you, obviously one of us has to be wrong.

like I get a lot of votes from curators who are after those juicy curator rewards that will make them change their voting habits,

Do you produce content people want?

but I think you believe HF21 will be a boon to a majority, that is why I made that proposal to you, obviously one of us has to be wrong.

You think you know what I think. THat might be a problem.

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No problem. Enjoy!

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