Lose a little, miss the lot

Sometimes I think about all of the time I have invested into Steem over what is coming up to three years in January and wonder what would happen if it were all to collapse. Honestly, I would be disappointed, but not because I didn't cash out at the highs as I think that is a very poor mental frame to hold. What would disappoint me is that Steem didn't fulfill its potential, it didn't change the world, it didn't empower many. That would suck because this world and most of those who inhabit it need a lot better than what is currently on offer.

Me personally, I will be fine. Not only do I have a couple of jobs now which means I haven't had to spend my earnings, I back myself for having a job in whatever future is to arrive and therefore, I will survive regardless. For me, IRL is spent working hard so IDL (In digital life?) I am free to work toward something much more meaningful for me personally that is both, improvement for many and improvement for myself.

From an investment perspective, I have definitely done a great deal more work IDL than my account value shows, but I wouldn't have been able to do that work IRL and still have the ability to put it into Steem. Most have some capabilities to buy some steem, most don't buy. The reason is that while everyone wants to earn Steem, the risk is too high for many to sink "actual money" into purchasing.

However, I sometimes think about what my time might be worth in regards to the time I have spent writing and commenting over my Steem journey and think, What price of Steem does reflect my effort?

Let's say that each of those 3300 top level posts took about 2 hours to create on average, a conservative estimate and doesn't include comments. That would be 6600 hours of direct contributions, not factoring in the consumption side and voting either. I currently have about 60,000 STEEM, some of which I traded for, some of which I bought, a lot I earned over those posts.

How much does that 60,000 STEEM need to be worth to cover the 6600 hours of IDL work? If I was to get a McDonald's salary of about 10€ an hour, that would be 66,000€ worth. To make it easier for many, that is 72,000 dollars worth before tax and is literally around 3.5 full-time years of work. So, that means that to get a McDonald's salary, the price of STEEM would need to be around $1.20.

22,000€ a year is about the point in Finland that is poverty line. But about 50% up from there is the average salary in Finland which means, if STEEM hit $1.80, I would be an average Finish earner based on what my account currently has in it. If we move to the 1 percent, that is about 50 percent up again which means that Steem would need to hit $2.70 to cover those three years as a top wage earner.

What are the chances?

Now, the interesting thing is that even if I stop earning Steem at all today, I will still be able to increase my STEEM holdings through curation activities by about 10% a year, without thinking much. Steem might not be worth much, but I don't know many people who get a yearly 10% bump in their salary.

But, if it fails and I get nothing, I lose 6600 hours of my life that could have been spent doing other stuff.

That is a risk I am willing to take, because the upside potential is so large that I don't mind risking it. Since I have been working anyway and been able to struggle through IRL anyway, if at some point I would be able to have the value of 3 years clear of working a top paying job on top of what I have done, that is worth the effort.

That is at $2.70 STEEM.

What happens at the ATH level of around 8 dollars is that instead of 3 years of highly paid work, I will have 9 years of highly paid work, which means that I will have effectively been employed for ~25% of a lifetime career at a highly paid level on top of what I have done. Not looking too bad considering at that level it would be equivalent to 72 dollars an hour or, 7.2 full-time McDonald's salaries for 6600 hours of writing.

Now, what happens if Steem gets to that point and then never goes below a dollar again? What if I sell say 25% of my holdings and then use the 75% to earn and curate to reward others with? That gets pretty interesting too as even dollar Steem makes quite a significant difference to the value of curation and Steem earnings per month.

Let's go back to that average salary in Finland of about 35,000 dollars a year or, 3000 dollars a month. If I can curate for about 300 STEEM a month, at a dollar, that means that every month I would be able to add 10% to the average income, forever. Not only that, it would mean that I would have that amount as an alternate revenue stream that is away from my own work, a stream that I cannot be fired from.

Lots of ifs in there.

But, it is only really in uncertainty that these kinds of numbers can ever be returned, the numbers from startup investment, risk exposure and the ability and willingness to take these risks. Most people do not have an investment mindset, most are not entrepreneurs, most are not risk takers. Most people on this planet want assurance and certainty, and they forgo a great deal to have it.

When I look at the developers and investors on Steem, the contributors like myself who have powered up and the consumers who have invested in to both earn and support the process, I see risk takers. In the past these kinds of risk takers would spend their time as individuals investing into this business or that, developing their craft and trying to get exposure and hoping that one day it will pay off.

How many opportunities have there been for this number of risk takers from around the world to come together and collaborate and invest themselves into a startup?

I find that pretty exciting to be a part of and that in itself holds value for me. While there are no guarantees in this life, the opportunity that is presented on and through Steem is incredible, and it doesn't take much to realize the fraction of potential that the blockchain has available to its future.

As I said to someone in a comment today, there is only room in this world for so many early adopters. All that has ever gone mainstream has had the first-ins, every billion dollar company started from zero and entire industries that we rely on today, didn't exist a few short decades ago.

I am willing to risk the little I have, but I am not planning to miss the lot.

Whatever you choose to do, good luck.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]