Calling the bottom

I have a pretty strong urge to write this post. Despite it being about finances it can't actually be financial advice. I don't know you or your financial anything. I can't and won't tell you to do with your money, these are my thoughts on the financial future of steem. Just put it as information to digest along with the rest of your financial due diligence. I sucked at this before, this might suck too. But I'm making a call.

Steem price hit bottom.

Technicals

I believe this for two reasons: technical and fundamental. Traders will tell you not to mix those. They're probably right, and I might be bad trader with bad instincts, but here's what I think.

My favorite technical analyst for crypto, willywoo, put out this chart showing that alt coins are at a historic level of support

Tone Vays was saying that bitcoin dominance looks like it may have peaked on a "9" for now using his favorite system of trading called TD sequential. I'm also reading tea leaves and seeing negative interest rates become a thing. I'm seeing QE looking like it's coming back strong. People are going to need a safe haven of an asset that psychopaths and oligararchs can't print at whim. Money will come to crypto.

I see some good signs specifically with Steem from the TD sequential system too. Steem is now trading with a "Green 2" over a "Green 1" for the first time in a long ass time. I think the direction of price change is imminent, and frankly I think it's 1 day into it.

Fundamentals

While people like Crimsonclad may be socially more connected to this ecosystem than I am I would argue there's hardly a person that touches the heart of this ecosystem more than me.

I helped found the largest community.
I helped create a broadcast network in that community.
I helped launch Steem Monsters
I helped launch Steem keychain
I helped launch Steem Engine
I helped launch the Steem Alliance/Foundation
I volunteer with the delegationtrust committee for Steemit

There's only one or two names that come to mind of people this connected within the growing business heart of Steem. Even with the bear market I know of tribes forming, games being built, projects launching, and see the low price of steem as actually a low barrier to entry on a lot of projects rather than a detterent.

On top of that I think the change in economics happening on Tuesday will be great for Steem hodlers. I originally pegged the change to doubling the benefits of holding steem. I think @smartsteem's math is better, and it's quadrupling. Helping the hodlers will help the price. That will in turn help the authors, and I think this change is going to be great. I also think there's intense fear about it, which for investors with some balls and some confidence makes it a perfect time to buy.

Combine this with SMTS a few months from now and the resource intensity of spreading tokens around, some of the projects I have cooked up for SM and SE and I'm feeling very bullish and very greedy.

Call made

So, there it is. That's my case for thinking that Steem is at the bottom. I don't have a price prediction going up. I just think we finally hit rock bottom and should see some nice action going in the other direction.

Do your own due diligence. Make your own calls. I'm just a dude that internets all day, but I'm calling the bottom. We'll see...

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