Another day another All Time High for players! But wait! There's more!
Splinterlands is kinda on a tear right now. Untamed has gone over really well and we're not even at the season's end. We just recorded our All Time High for numbers of players. Transactions will likely show up again at the end of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if we have our first 4k+ daily active user day (player and transactor) sometime over the next week.
This isn't meant to replace the State of Splinterlands next week, but I wanted to report on Expected pack Value and the Flippening and added just a touch of other graphs too.
Expected Pack Value - UNTAMED Flipping is live!!!
I just got done talking to Jarvie and the conclusion I have is that the Flippening is here and it's in hardcore mode.
Between the discount through a full site purchase, referral bonus, and potentially a ~10% discount via DEC purchases you're able to get packs for around $1.50.
The expected value depends on your choices. The expected value of pack, without counting any airdrops in the total, is
- 1.78 if you don't use potions
- 2.20 if you use the legendary potion
- 2.12 if you use the alchemy potion
- 2.66 if you use both potions
There's an issue of timing in that not all cards are going to sell immediately, but for patient people, you can buy packs at ~$1.50 and sell the cards for $1.78. Of course, individual results vary because of RNG. You could get lucky or slammed when buying packs, but generally speaking the odds are that using current math you'll be ahead by ~19%. Oh, and then you get the airdrops... These include an airdrop of 5 legendary summoners and 1 legendary dragon summoner.
For this last airdrop you should have received 1 legendary airdrop for every 300 packs you purchased. RNG factors in. I should have gotten 5. I picked up 1. that's ok, I'm saving muh luck for the legendary summoners!
But all of that is to say, this current market is offering you 19% bonus for flipping packs + the value of whatever untamed airdrops you claim, but it requires patience.
Of course none of that is guarenteed, but using Jarvie's math I just wanted to explain it in simple terms. It's not financial advice because I don't know your family circumstances so it's impossible to guide you. But as I'm sitting here trying to figure out the math for me and how I choose to invest in the cards this is what I'm calculating.
Marketcap
While I'm talking about the game check this out!!!
Steempeak is tracking marketcap. They use a list price, a bid price, a market price, and a DEC price.
Combine that with the first marketcap tracking and you can start imagining ribbons forming on the chart of how to track the various prices.
5% benes to both steempeak and the dao.
What a great deal is offering by the splinterlands right now we can get 19 percent profit plus airdrops. If we look on the graph then the profit ratio can increase more I think anyone who has money must go for it to acheive handsome profit at the moment.
I love handsome profits 😍
YEAAAA, I was told Beta cards would be cheaper after the new cards were released. *not a complaint but I was hoping for a sale. LOL
A true success story on Steem!
Awesome stuff as always.
I'll have to admit that UNTAMED prices have surprised me. UNTAMED has sold close to 300,000 packs already and only went live a few short weeks ago. That is nothing short of amazing to me considering Alpha total supply was 300,000 packs.
Amazing stuff, its fun watching this thing grow.
MY UPDATE
I went ahead and used my 1million dec to get the 500 pack special. With my Peakmonsters profit sharing and my guild discounts on potions i'm doing pretty well. Listed 2500 cards in about 1hr on peakmonsters and already sold $220 from that purchase in the last 7hrs.
There is still risk... i assume there will be some cards that just don't sell easily.
Also i am now holding dec/steem/sbd in accounts and there's no telling what happens with the values of all 3 of those tokens between now and the time i buy the next 500 pack.
So it really will be determined when i'm mostly sold out of cards and how much DEC i end up with. If it's more than the roughly 1.2 million dec to buy the packs and potions (not counting discounts from peakmonsters)
Hi, @aggroed!
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Great job, @aggroed! I'm reading your posts religiously now, as I am seeing the value in them more and more as I "go deeper" into the game. On a (bit of a) whim -- actually, the "last straw" was when word went around my "DEC Hunters" guild that my buddy @forever-crypto hit the "Prince Julian" card (Gold (summoner_ - Level 4 - $20,000 USD (list price) - 23,108,030.040 DEC), and in combination with the fact that we get 75 free packs with the 500 (+75) ***Untamed" promo pack batch I just decided to go "all in". I had a bit of "buyer's remorse" after doing this (especially as some people have given feedback that ROI of the Untamed promo packs is not worth it), but since I've been following a strategy (outlined in my ongoing series) of gradually moving BTC off of Coinbase (taking some profit on BTC which I bought at $200 - $400/BTC back in 2013-14) and putting that BTC value into something more "kinetic", I have been trying to sort out in my mind whether this has been a prudent decision. Your analytic posts are helping me feel more at ease. The other thing we need to consider is the VERY REAL income we receive (in DEC) from won battles - ESPECIALLY with the "gold promo" cards. I mean, that is essentially "DEC dividend" income which can be calculated against the cost of the packs. have you factored this into your above calculations? Man, just by throwing the "Furious Chicken" (Gold - Level 3 (or higher) - $4.15 USD) into each battle (where there is room) we are getting a JUICY 10% bonus/dividend, and that is not even a "gold promo". So, my point is that when you factor in the "DEC dividend" it's a no-brainer. I'm now opening two packs per day, with 454 packs remaining (as of writing this comment). I have found that a gradual pack-opening process of ideal (compared to opening in one shot), especially now that I laid down a good foundation of Untamed cards with the first 100 (+10) pack batch I bought during the first round of the pre-sale. Also, being able to now buy the potions in "+1" increments was an EXCELLENT move, because now I can play several battles each day to earn enough DEC to top-up my potions to cover the two Untamed packs, PLUS the rewards cards (which I believe we SHOULD apply potions to, because you WILL hit some JUICY gold and legendary rewards cards which will GREATLY offset the daily cost of the potions for those. I am also now ramping up my effort on Twitter of sharing posts related to #splinterlands, and other "blockchain gaming" innovations. Man, I have been having a rough period in my life this past year, and this game has LITERALLY been a major "archor" keeping me afloat, motivated and productive. So cheers to you on that. Keep up the great work. I think the way forward is to continue harnessing the "wisdom/talent of the crowd" as ALL of the players can assist in bringing this game forward to the masses, and then we ALL win in the grander scheme of things..
i am hodling my alpha and beta cards
this growth is interesting