RE: Data analysis on corona spread in China: 1/22-2/08

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Data analysis on corona spread in China: 1/22-2/08

in steemstem •  2 months ago 

Makes me wonder why should it be a quadratic or cubic function? Assuming the virus has just began to spread and there are still no countermeasures in place should it not be like some exponential function xn, where x is average number of people infected by each patient and n is nth round of spread (which would depend on time taken by patient to come in contact with x new targets). I think I should read more on disease modeling. This fit seems interesting, nonetheless. Makes me wonder what are dynamics of the spread.

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If you where in a big hall with the middle person infected, nobody moving and assume that the person who is uninfected will get the disease with 100 percent certainty if they stand next to an infected person, then the new infections will behave linear since the circumference of the circle increases linear with the radius. So exponential behavior is probably based on some kind of additional assumption.

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