Hive Reaches 10ks Sats | Some thoughts about it | Supply VS Demand

in #pump6 months ago (edited)

In a period of just 3 days HIVE went from around 1600 stats to a 10000 sats. This is around 6 fold increase in terms of Bitcoin price. In terms of dollar price things are even more dramatic and the increase is more than 7 fold.

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What cause this crazy bull run?

Truth to be told I don’t know, and most people don’t know as well.

Usually things like this are not a result of a one single event but a culmination of a multiple factors to create this perfect storm.

Basic economy says: Price is driven from the demand and supply

Demand and supply you say. Let’s take a look at these two things.

Supply

The total supply of HIVE at the moment is around 351 million. Out of the 351 million around 162 million are powered up, locked for a 13 weeks period of power down. Another 83 million are in the DAO fund also locked. This leaves us with around 106 million liquid hive.

But this doesn’t stop there. There is another almost 30 million tokens locked up, so to speak, from Binance. They have been powering down and they have around 12 million liquid now, but deposits and withdrawals are not enabled yet from their side at the moment of writing this post. This cuts of another 30 million from the liquid supply, meaning a total of 76 million liquid tokens.

Here is a table for the supply

HIVE Tokens allocation April 26, 2020
Total supply351M
Powered UP162M
Hive DAO83M
Binance30M
Reaming liquid76M

Only 76 millions liquid hive available. Probably a share of this liquid hive is not for sale either. There is a lot of sleeping accounts, and some of the active ones are not willing to sell either. This is reducing the liquid supply further.

How did me get here with less than a 76M liquid hive?

Well as most of the active hive users are aware there was quite a turbulent period leading to this.

Here are few bullets that cause this:

  • Governance war that lead to users powering up and voting for witnesses
  • Exchanges powering up and voting for witnesses
  • Binance still not allowing access to the HIVE tokens
  • A fork that removed the Steemit Inc tokens and locked the into a DAO fund

There you go. A series of events that super constrained the liquid hive to a less than 21% liquidity from the total supply at this moment. Less then 21% of the hive supply is actually available now, and I will go on and speculated due to the sleeping accounts and users that just don’t want to sell its less then 15% at this point. A 15%, or around 50 million HIVE.

Demand

Hive and Steem have been in the news for more than a month now. Cointelgraph, Coindesk, CCN and a lot more. All of them have been reporting on Hive. Twitter has been buzzing with hive as well and the top crypto acters have been mentioning hive like Vitali, Andreas and McAfee. In most of these news hive has been showed in positive light, decentralization vs centralization.

Hive was and it is still all over the news, getting a massive exposure. Exposure matters. Hive has been exposed to millions of crypto users in a positive way all over again. And then the fuse came in. The Huobi listing with a massive 100k HIVE rewards for the once that deposit the most. There was an AMA prior to this listing giving hive further exposure to the large number of crypto users. Huobi is a third largest exchanges, meaning it has a lot of users with crypto right there that can move around tokens instantly. Imagen some big player with a nice amount of BTC siting there. He may want to put 1 or 2 BTC in this promising project.

Combine this great exposure, a listing to a large exchange with a lot of big investors ready to go instantly, and the super constrained liquidity on hive. Also, not to forget, hive was a below 50 rank coin. Its overall market cap is small compared to the top ones. When you put such a great exposure and large listing to a small marketcap coin it can easily go up a lot. In our case, even that it was a below 50 coin, it had a super low liquidity on top of that.

Whales

Here I just want to put some emphasis on whales. In most of the cases, moves like this are caused from some large players. I bet there is some big players out there that want to buy some HIVE. Maybe there was a few of them. Anyways they might not have expected this huge jump in the price, as FOMO has been kicking in and a lot of other players may have come on board in the process. Things may have got out of control a bit. Is our old friend from the other chain one of these players? Can’t tell as there are pro and cons for that.


I guess this is a most probable scenario. Supply vs Demand. That what drives the market.

All the best
@dalz

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Good analysis.

One additional factor - no forced seller (Stinc is gone).

People will only sell if they can get a great price, otherwise they hold and maybe power up to gain voting power on the platform.

Psycology means what is a great price keeps rising.
Last week I thought 4400 sats was a great price.
Now I wont sell for less than 12000 sats.

Also I (like many other smaller players) are running out of liquid Hive to sell.

Thanks!

I think a lot of regular hivers are out of liquid hive atm :) Me as well. Also yes.... no programatic selling each month. We have the DAO now that is funding developers.... but I think those developers will not sell everything right away and will probably time the market.

Steem is now up 14%!
Hive has got too expensive for some speculators and now some of that demand is diverting to Steem as a 2nd best option.

Justin is buying.

If so I hope his childish ego pushes the Steem price up for my next powerdown on Wednesday. :-)

Mine is in 12 hours, cheers Sunny boy!

Posted Using LeoFinance

So am i right in thinking that Binance has not enabled withdrawals because they are staked currently? What a joke.

Huobi is also staked..aronud 50% of the holdings before the listing. ... but they did the listing.... Binance in general have been slow to react to this story.... Huobi unvoted the witnesses first, they started powering down first and they did the listing now first ... I guess Binance will follow soon

I didn't realize Huobi was so large...Wow.

Posted Using LeoFinance

Nice friend to have :)

Better than Binance for sure!

It's always a question what to denominate prices of a cryptocurrency in. Many users mistakenly price cryptocurrencies in dollars, when in general altcoins trade against BTC.

For HIVE, I've been viewing it against STEEM. See the 1-day candles from TradingView (can't figure out how to make link public):

HIVEBTC/STEEMBTC using BITTREX prices via TradingView

I'm still not sure the best way to view HIVE. In BTC, in STEEM, in USD?

Yep ... viewing it against BTC is probably the best thing ... although comparing it to STEEM is also something a lot of people do ... but it looks like a HIVE is detaching fast from steem.

CC @knircky who first showed me the magic of tradingview at a grungy meetup in times past.

The Huobi HIVE/USDT chart is interesting now:

Huobi HIVE/USDT chart Sun 26 Apr 2020 01:28 PM UTC

Looks like there's resistance at $1. Seems to me like the Huobi listing has driven the price explosion. The volume Huobi makes every other exchange appear minuscule.

I wonder if we can see volume for each HIVE pair on Huobi.

Found it on CoinGecko:

Market Trading Pairs for Hive on CoinGeckohttps://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hive#markets

So looks like HIVE is predominantly denominated in USD terms on the order books.

Ha.... didnt expect that... was totaly unawere of the USDT/HIVE pair on Huobi ... this means some Tether money staying on a side are actualy comming in. Totaly new twist to the story :)

Over $100M in volume was registered by this pair itself on Huobi. I'm wondering about the intense activity in this pair for two days now.

Our first run as HIVE is going to be a fun ride I wonder where we will peak at and what the effect will be I already see additional press about it and that helps eye balls wonder if we will see a spike in users too

Yes this can create quite a spiral .... although in the real world things take time :) I bet the spike in the market will reflect users and dapps like after two months from now.

I knew there wasn't a lot of liquid hive available but you just showed me it's much less than I thought.
Thanks for your calculation!

HIVE ON!!!

Liquidity is so low at the moment ... although Binance unlocking their hive, some users powering down etc will make things better .... but I wouldnt count as much on the power downs ... those are just to slow .... and not everyone will do it .... Binance is the most important factor here that can bring a lot of liquidity fast

You might want to fix that title of yours 11K Sats and going strong

Haha... cant keep up :)

Edit. 12.5K

Its crazy .... zero liquidity .... add some demand = moon :)

Crazy volume on Huobi!

happy to see hive rising but what is not yet clear is what is actually responsible for it