Australia may have a new neighbour soon.

A "non-binding" independence referendum was recently held in Bougainville, to the north of Australia. Bougainville has been a part of Papua New Guinea, since that nation gained independence from Australia in 1975. It was recognised as an Autonomous region as part of the peace process following the Civil War that raged from 1988 - 98 that led to up to 20,000 deaths. The cause of that war was a large copper and Gold mine at Panguna.

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Today, there have been many years of peace, but a growing desire for independence. A referendum was held in the region which resulted in an overwhelming vote in favour of full independence. The path to this remains unclear however, as the referendum was non-binding, and the Papua New Guinea government will have a big say in proceedings. Preferring to keep the fledgling nation under the PNG, the negotiations may still take years before Independence is granted. The results of the referendum, however, are very clear - with a voter turnout of 85% and a result of 97.7% in favour of independence.

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Politically, this comes at an important time for Australia, with our traditional role of influence in the South Pacific being challenged by China. Many nations around the region have been courted by China, seeking to gain both economic and military footholds in various South Pacific nations. The Conversation has an interesting article that covers this area.

There are also geopolitical implications. The referendum has taken place during a period of heightened strategic anxiety among the Pacific’s so-called traditional partners – Australia, New Zealand and the United States, as well as the United Kingdom, France and Japan.

There have long been concerns China will seek to curry influence with an independent Bougainville. As one Bougainvillean leader informed me, Chinese efforts to build relationships with Bougainville’s political elite have increased over the past few years.

Beijing’s interest in Bougainville is two-fold: first, it is seeking to shore up diplomatic support in the Pacific Islands region, thereby reducing support for Taiwan which lost a further two Pacific allies this year. And second, to access to resources, namely fisheries and extractive minerals.

China has been increasing its efforts to influence South Pacific nations, and Australia need's to tread carefully. China is important to us economically, being our largest trading partner, but are we keen to see many of our closest neighbours increasingly reliant on China?

Economically, The mining operations that were abandoned during the civil war remain an important consideration. Can small Island nations successfully negotiate the economy building opportunities that mining revenue can offer. The mine was originally run by a part owned subsidiary of Rio Tinto. Rio Tinto's interests in the mine were transferred to the Autonomous Bougainville Government and the Independent State of Papua New Guinea.

Re-opening the mine is seen as critical to the success of an independent Bougainville, but managing that process in a way that doesn't re-ignite the conflict will be a challenge. The resources are vast, with one of the worlds largest copper reserves, along with an estimated 12 million oz of Gold. The previous conflict was essentially around profit share, getting the balance fair for landowners, mine operators, and the government will be essential for the peace and stability of the aspiring nation.

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Over the coming years, a number of Independence referendums are occurring in the South Pacific - including West Papua and New Caledonia. The rise of small independent nations in the area presents new challenges to the economic and political influences in the region. Australia and New Zealand need to pay attention, and engage with these nations pro-actively and learn from the mistakes of the past.

Thanks for reading,

JK