The 7 Quarter Delay - Why You May Not Be Feeling The Pinch Yet

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(Edited)

Hey Jessinvestors

Unlike most of the investment content you might read here, I don't give to tits if the price goes up, down, left, right or in circles for the short term. If you like reading financial speculation posts that are short-lived, like technical analysts charts or like Fibonacci sequences then this is not the type of content for you. I like to look at Marco trends, Its a personal bias of mine that has served me well.

It's no secret the VAST majority of day traders lose money, these are the suckers that are the market makers while the long term investor is the market taker.

7quaterdelay.png

Why sell fools gold when you can get fools to give you their gold?

But Che, I make this much day trading or I know someone who makes so much money day trading? As they say, if you hang around the barbershop enough you going to get a haircut, sometimes, someone does win, but not all the time.

These are all anecdotal evidence and not a true reflection of the practice because the silent majority do not want to tell you the truth, you only see and hear the 1% of the 1% shouting about how awesome and effective day trading is, don't be fooled.

Day traders are all about who will be the greatest fool today to save the others fails, but its part of the ecosystem.

I'm not saying you can't make money day trading, but it's just not my game. Day trading is capital intensive and not lives on information privy.

If you know info before the other guy, you win. Day trading like in its name works every day, you make moves for the day or the next few days you can trade as the market goes up or the market goes down the same way.

Focusing on Macro

I personally base a lot of my investment strategies on Marco events, this is a patience game and not a game of timing.

Yes, you do have windows to set your positions but these are massive windows, months even years you an even price up positions over time as you see your correlations I strong.

So here is the play I am looking at and trying to get in front of to try and maximise my gains as the market when the market starts to reflect the true nature of the economy.

If we look at the US's M2 money supply velocity we can see that it's on a sharp fall at the end, that's probably the first thing that catches your eye. However, what you should be noticing is that the CPI, consumer price index tracks almost exactly along with it with a 7 quarter delay.

The CPI, in this case, is core CPI is the inflation you feel AFTER they remove food and energy, so this does not include, eating, petrol, gas, electricity. This is basically the inflation rate of non-essentials.

Delfation price tracking

Image source: - deflation.com

What does this all mean for me?

So as you can see as disposable income becomes less or is pushed into savings, we see sending go down on non-essential goods and it takes a nose drive of note in pricing. This means in 2 years or so, we could see crazy price drops, however, what I feel will happen is over the next 2 years they will erode the purchasing power of you currency so much to try and flatten that curve.

That means currency debasement at record levels. If you're not storing some of your net worth in non-correlated assets like precious metals and the cryptocurrency you still have time, there are around 12 - 16 months for you to build up a kitty.

Once this price corrects come and the inflation to counteract it if you can hold on to any purchasing power relative to what you have no, you're probably going to be in the top percentile of wealth in wherever you are as the rest of the world gets blindsided by this.

Have your say

What do you good people of HIVE think? Will pricing track accordingly?

So have at it my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, comment "I am a Jessie."

Let's connect

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13 comments
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Time will tell.

You may not win big by diversifying, but you’ll definitely do better than the guy who did nothing.

That’s something I learned anyhow.

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I am most certainly not right about everything but I’m just less wrong than the majority and that’s enough to earn you a pretty decent return

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And the vast majority of the world's population would consider such matters boring...I guess the same applies to Geology, History, etc. The boring stuff that shaped the world.

Yes, I am ready to bet people dollars for donuts that donuts will get more expensive. Not that those are essential food.

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Paper wealth and nominal gains are an intoxicating trap and it takes time to see through it! Do I think donuts will be more “expensive” absolutely even with less demand currency debasement at the levels we see today will try to fight deflation at the cost of the system

If they can inflate their way out of this one I’ll be mightily impressed and open to saying well I called it wrong but the exponential need for inflation and it’s reducing impact lead me to believe it can only result in hyper inflation and the destroying of fiat confidence

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!ENGAGE 20

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Did you just engage me in a comment not meant for you? What sorcery is this?

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Actually doing some testing, but any comment a contender for some ENGAGE :)

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Lol in that case, my wallet is there for your testing pleasure, test away my good man, spot of tea for the thirsty work you do?

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(Edited)

Tea token? Should exist already.

I was here because i saw you used #leofinance and #palnet - my alts should have trailed misterengagement but didn't :(

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Lol I know there was a coffee one I think tea would be fitting too!

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Thank you for your engagement on this post, you have recieved ENGAGE tokens.

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