Italy Is Facing the Worst Demographic Crisis Since World War I

in italy •  last month  (edited)

Italy Is Facing the Worst Demographic Crisis Since World War I (Bloomberg)

Demographic Crisis

Italy’s population faces the lowest natural balance since World War I

  • Italy’s population is facing the lowest natural balance since World War I, with the number of people in the country falling for a fifth year in 2019 as deaths exceeded births by almost 212,000.
  • Pension costs now amount to c. 17% of the economy and immigration levels, which could help alleviate the situation, have declined 18% last year with immigrants exceeding emigrants by only 143,000.
  • According to Eurostat projections, Italy’s population of 60m could decline to less than 56m by 2050, while France and Spain record population growth in the period and Germany’s is forecast to remain flat.

Analysis and Comments

  • The current Italian government has offered lower income couples grants of up to €160 ($175) per month to help cover costs during the first year of a baby’s life and also promised young families up to €3,000 a year to cover nursery charges. Apparently all to no avail…
  • As was highlighted in these reports, the changes have some material long term implications for sector rotation including tailwinds for healthcare, utilities, and technology, as well as headwinds for banks and consumer-facing sectors such as retail.
  • While Italy may be a slightly extreme example, the future only looks slightly better for the other large European economies (France, Spain & Germany), especially if the recent productively trends are not reversed.


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Its not just Italy. Its all of Europe, China, Japan, Korea. In fact almost every non-third world country has falling working age populations. See more details in my post a couple of weeks ago.

Indeed but inside you had different strategy, France has always been pro-natality and therefore had 2+ kids before 2010. Now it is around 1.8-1.85 which is still very good for a developed country

1.85 is dying slowly vs quickly. Only above 2.1 can be considered good. Israel’s GDP per capital is higher than France and it has fertility of 3.2. THAT is very good, but it’s a complete outlier.

Don’t forget to add net migration in the balance.

Israel is also different because it seems there is a huge divide between Jew from Israel and other confessions less well-off and having way more kids. So it could be seen as an emerging population inside a developed country maybe 🤔?

I have talking about policies not Pro-life/choice

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