Damn Sam. I really want number one to be true. Beautiful women (with or without clothing) intimidate me. I need to get to know them a bit before I can be comfortable around them. I'd make an excuse and go for that reason.
Two and three sound like the real deal to me (which almost certainly means one is the lie. That Dave is a clever fellow).
Hell, I think I might know the lake so I'm saying #2 is bullshit.