Hive: Monthly Distribution Report Through 5/31/2020 (Whales Are Losing Power)

in hive-167922 •  last month 

For about two years, I did a monthly report on Steem called "STEEM: Whales Are Losing Their Power....The System Is Not Broken". This took a look at how the distribution of Steem Power changed on a monthly basis. The presumption on there was that the Whales were just getting more powerful when the reality showed the exact opposite. When it came to Steem Power, over a two years period of time, things were flattening out.

Of course, we know that Steemit Inc selling part of the stake each month had a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, as we found out, not enough was sold.

I decided to bring this report over to Hive so that we can monitor how things are going. I am going to use the first chart I have from Steem as the initial basis since Hive has its roots there. The chart is pertinent for all categories other than the Whales since we know that is much different than on Hive due to Steemit Inc.


These are the numbers through May 31, 2020.

Each month I monitor what is going on with new accounts and the amount of MVests in each category. I do this to determine what trends are taking place.

Now that we are at end of month, time to post the numbers again.

I want to thank @arcange for the work done each day compiling these numbers and making the charts.

We will be showing 3 months worth of data for analysis purposes to see how the 90 trend might be.

The first chart is from August of 2017, the month I started on Steem. It is placed here to provide some contrast to see how things are changing over a longer period of time.

Here is the breakdown.

8/1/2017

The total MVests here is 336,932.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 75.44%
Orcas 14.86%
Dolphins 7.16%
Minnows 2.14%
Red Fish .01%
Inactive .40%

3/31/2020

https://leofinance.io/hive-133987/@arcange/hive-statistics-20200331-en

The total MVests here is 329,353.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 45.4%
Orcas 24.95%
Dolphins 17.06%
Minnows 8.31%
Red Fish 4.28%

4/30/2020

https://leofinance.io/hive-133987/@arcange/hive-statistics-20200430-en

The total MVests here is 309,285.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 42.38%
Orcas 26.22%
Dolphins 17.95%
Minnows 8.87%
Red Fish 4.57%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales -6.74%
Orcas +5.49%
Dolphins +5.22%
Minnows +6.74%
Red Fish +6.78%

5/31/2020

https://leofinance.io/hive-133987/@arcange/hive-statistics-20200531-en

The total MVests here is 273,246.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 36.31%
Orcas 29.46%
Dolphins 19.07%
Minnows 9.97%
Red Fish 5.19%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales -14.32%
Orcas +12.36%
Dolphins +6.24%
Minnows +12.40%
Red Fish +13.57%

3/31/2020

4/30/2020

5/31/2020

So what does this all tell us?

We are seeing things starting to shake out. There was a lot of powering down which can be expected. A lot of STEEM was bought on the exchanges that ended up being powered by them. As we progress through the 13 weeks, those who got involved simply for the airdrop are now getting their money out.

As we can see, the Whales saw the decrease, showing how some big players were simply here for the airdrop. It was the only category to register a negative while the others gained significantly.

On March 31, 2020, the Whales and Orcas had 231,703 MVests (70.35% of the total); on April 30, 2020, 212,160 MVests (68.66% of the total), a decrease of 2.4%; on May 31, 2020, 179,704 MVests (65.76% of the total), a decrease of 4.2%.

Over the next couple months, depending upon how the power downs shake out, it is possible that we see the Orcas surpass the Whales as the category with the most MVests. That would be quite a move compared to where things stood 3 years ago.

It looks like the distribution on Hive is flattening out. It will still take another few months before we see the true trend established. Once the airdrop power downs are out of the way, we will see how the platform progresses in terms of token accumulation.


If you found this article informative, please give an upvote and rehive.

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I like the way this distribution is going to.

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  ·  last month Reveal Comment

Very interesting, thanks for putting together this report. I think things are moving in the right direction!

From the history of STEEM/HIVE whales and mega reward farms more likely funds are being moved to farming accounts

Yes, I agree with this statement!
As we know about the whale accounts but we do not know all of the whale's alt accounts on the platform.
Trace transactions in most of the known whale accounts and you will find the alt accounts and you will see the truth to this.
Most of them move Hive to these accounts and delegate to make money, I have to say delegating is where the money is being made right now!

Yes track transaction exchange deposits vote patterns etc doesn't matter now majority of STEEM over the years was farmed by the early users inja miners and witnesses HIVE power goes the same way it always has,
True delegation is likely used to hide farming of funds also since rates make no sense even if 100% of stake was used to farm pretty sure would return a loss

Yes, there is always an acceptable amount of loss to either farming or mining. That is the way it goes, even in the real world for farmers and miners!
Although it does not matter much since it is farmed or mined funds it was not bought funds with fiat so it was still rewarding for many of the whales in one way or the other.

Thanks for the article :)

@tipu curate

Let’s hope the trend continues! !BEER


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What's the whole situation going on with STEEM? Unfortunately it just seems so dead. Absolutely no engagement. You look at the trending posts and some have no comment on whatsoever. What is Justin planning on doing with Steemit?

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I can’t even read the trending posts. It’s all chinese. :)

hahah!

  ·  last month (edited)

good to see! On a side note: the only good thing that came from the JS theft is that some whales couldn't double their stake, thereby make Hive more decentralized

oh nice good report

I really appreciate your posts @taskmaster4450. They are valuable and educational for those of us who aren't well versed in metrics and financial analysis (but desperately want to learn more!). :) Thanks a lot.

Hopefully it translates into a stronger and more stable ecosystem and price in the long term.

I'm positive about it.

I really like when you make this stats. It also seems that we are losing dolphins and minnows... I hope this can stabilize when all the people that don't support Hive are out of selling HP.

Thank you!

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Интересное наблюдение!

For me, at that time, things would take a better shape and the Hive ecosystem would begin to grow organically.

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This is very great to see! I love seeing people working hard and making change!

Yeah... I belong in a REDFISH! LOL, soon in my dream to be a DOLPHIN! Dolphin without fins! LOL

I know i have been buying and powering up.

In Proof of Stake blockchains, the distribution of stake matters. Very pleasing to see a less third-world economic distribution and the rise of the middle classes.

  ·  last month Reveal Comment