Hive: Monthly Distribution Report Through 1/5/2021: Orcas Having A Party Again

in LeoFinance4 months ago

With All the excited of the New Year and what is going on, I totally forgot to do the monthly report. I apologize for that. This one will be about 5 weeks while the next one will be for 3.

For about two years, I did a monthly report on Steem called "STEEM: Whales Are Losing Their Power....The System Is Not Broken". This took a look at how the distribution of Steem Power changed on a monthly basis. The presumption on there was that the Whales were just getting more powerful when the reality showed the exact opposite. When it came to Steem Power, over a two years period of time, things were flattening out.

Of course, we know that Steemit Inc selling part of the stake each month had a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, as we found out, not enough was sold.

I decided to bring this report over to Hive so that we can monitor how things are going. I am going to use the first chart I have from Steem as the initial basis since Hive has its roots there. The chart is pertinent for all categories other than the Whales since we know that is much different than on Hive due to Steemit Inc.

These are the numbers through January 5, 2021.

Each month I monitor what is going on with new accounts and the amount of MVests in each category. I do this to determine what trends are taking place.

Now that we are at end of month, time to post the numbers again.

I want to thank @arcange for the work done each day compiling these numbers and making the charts.

We will be showing 3 months worth of data for analysis purposes to see how the 90 trend might be.

The first chart is from August of 2017, the month I started on Steem. It is placed here to provide some contrast to see how things are changing over a longer period of time.

Here is the breakdown.

8/1/2017

The total MVests here is 336,932.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 75.44%
Orcas 14.86%
Dolphins 7.16%
Minnows 2.14%
Red Fish .01%
Inactive .40%

10/31/2020
image.png
https://peakd.com/hive-133987/@arcange/hive-statistics-20201031-en

The total MVests here is 267,915 .

On a percentage basis:

Whales 38.97%
Orcas 27.03%
Dolphins 18.86%
Minnows 9.87%
Red Fish 5.27%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales +.83%
Orcas -1.78%
Dolphins +.48%
Minnows +.82%
Red Fish -.19%

11/30/2020


https://leofinance.io/@arcange/hive-statistics-20201130-en

The total MVests here is 267,965 .

On a percentage basis:

Whales 38.78%
Orcas 27.34%
Dolphins 18.75%
Minnows 9.87%
Red Fish 5.26%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales -.52%
Orcas +1.15%
Dolphins -.58%
Minnows 0%
Red Fish -.19%

1/5/2021


https://leofinance.io/@arcange/hive-statistics-20210105-en

The total MVests here is 270,108.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 38.98%
Orcas 27.73%
Dolphins 18.2%
Minnows 9.86%
Red Fish 5.28%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales +.51%
Orcas +1.43%
Dolphins -2.93%
Minnows -.1%
Red Fish -.7%

10/31/2020
image.png

11/30/2020
image.png

1/5/2021

The Orcas continue to have a party. They are the ones making the major moves over the last three months. In that time, the number of accounts went from 291 to 303, a gain of 12. What is very positive is only 1 of those was due to a Whale moving down. The rest, 11, were Dolphins who powered up to the point of qualifying for Orca.

That is a very positive sign for distribution.

It also tells us that those who were at the Dolphin level are doing well. The weak point is the Minnows, since not enough of them are moving up to compensate for the ones who "graduate".

Perhaps this is a good time to explain how this works. Each category outside of Whales, can have people move up. Everything is a multiple of 10. Thus, it takes 10x the number of MVests to be a Dolphin as opposed to a Minnow. Therefore, if a Dolphin moves up to Orca, to remain the same, 10 Minnows need to move up. In the last 3 months, we saw the number of Dolphins go down.

The Red Fish are doing their part, with a gain of 42 over that time. This has allowed the Minnow group to hold its place overall.

So what is the reason for all this?

My guess is that the recent success and interest in some of the tribes is directing people in that direction. Instead of focusing upon powering up HIVE, they are putting their efforts towards the second layer. This is a sensible move both from an individual standpoint as well as the entire ecosystem. However, the key to long-term success, from that perspective, is to get more people involved in those second layer applications.

On October 31, 2020, the Whales and Orcas had 176,521 MVests (65.99 of the total), a decrease of .26%; on November 30, 2020, 177,170 MVests (66.12% of the total), an increase of .19%.; On January 5, 2021, 180,200 MVests (66.71% of the total), an increase of .89%.


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In the long run having a large group of active orcas will be more benificial to hive. Ones that participate in voting and engaging will have a far more relevant say in the direction of the chain as they are the ones using it.

This is very positive to me and I will hopefully add one more to that group this month.

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I agree with you. It is vital that Hive be in strong hands. Having a large Orca class is really what will make things a bit more stable. It would be terrific to see 500 Orcas.

This is very positive to me and I will hopefully add one more to that group this month.

We look forward to you achieving that milestone. Please post about it when you get there. It is a major accomplishment. It is not an easy feat to pull off.

Your dedication, time, and commitment is shown through that goal.

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It was a challenge and took 3 years to get there. That was the fun part though. Hustling, building, growing.

That is what makes it more than social media. I'm invested with time and money into the chain and want to see it grow in size and value.

Now we just need a few hundred more to do the same this year and keep spreading out that stake.

Without a doubt. We need lots trying to grow at all levels. That is what decentralizes things. It is imperative to keep growing horizontally instead of vertically.

It is without a doubt more than just social media. There is the financial aspect of things as well as, in my view, the idea of working to make a major shift in the world.

We are laying the foundation for a new financial system. How many in history can say that?

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Such a great overview of the big picture, @taskmaster4450.

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If we talk about distribution, it will be more healthy with big dolphins and young orcas, I know whales might just decrease with time but it wouldn't matter if we have more of the dolphins and orcas and well I might be wrong, all in all we need more people to buy hive abd make it even more attractive to hold.

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That is true, the big dolphins and young orcas, in totality, if they grow in significant numbers can be the next group to take over and make an impact.

It all comes down to numbers.

Presently, the success that is taking place on the second layer is interesting to watch. I am not sure how much of a difference that makes but it has to be some. There are a number of people I saw write they powered down Hive to buy Leo, for example. That could be impacting some of the smaller accounts in the near term.

I say that because, if those projects end up succeeding, some might find they are able to buy a lot of Hive back with their profits. It is at that point we might see what you describe where a lot of big dolphins appear almost overnight.

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You're right I believe no issues with powering down hive to buy Leo because exponentially it's possible to buy more hive if perhaps we have 10$ Leo and hive is cheaper or even vice versa.
However there are various ways we can grow hive either directly or through the projects buil on it, this will all revolve around building value and attractiveness for hive.

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Many might not convert their profits back to Hive. However, if they want a say in governance, they are going to have to.

It will be an interesting place come the end of the year. I expect it to be far different than it is now.

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It's going to be an exciting year since we don't know how and when the alt season will pick up fully and how it might affect hive too, nevertheless people would be laced with having a lot of decisions to make, hopefully it'll go in hive's favour

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That is why I dont like the term alt coin it is too limiting.

We are already seeing the top altcoin, Ethereum running. We are seeing a lot of the large cap coins move. The mid and small caps, not so much.

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When you mean *limiting" do you mean in terms of performance? Like they should be known for even more?

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No to limiting in our view of things. Trying to put all the tokens together like they are the same.

Ethereum and Hive are two totally different classes. One has a market cap in the billions, the other under $50 million.

Ethereum is a large cap crypto while Hive is a small cap.

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@taskmaster4450, Good to see that every Hive Economical Structure Participants playing their part in this Journey. Stay blessed.

Interesting. I do agree I have seen quite a few people focusing on tribe tokens more than focusing on HIVE. I think the downtrending price of HIVE was probably one of the biggest reason for them jumping ship. Either way so long as they are active in the system, they are helping the chain.

I think it is the inevitable result regardless of price.

The second layer will end up being where most of the attention is. Hive being the governance token is extremely overlooked, and probably undervalued. That will come into play at some point.

My view is that Hive is the token that people earn the background. We will see the numbers shift with much larger numbers. If, for example, instead of 10K daily active accounts, there were 100K, this would seriously dilute the reward pool, spreading it out to more people.

That is what needs to happen and will, I believe over time.

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Those are definitely some interesting numbers. I am one of those folks kicking around in the Dolphin range for what feels like an eternity! I look forward to hitting that Orca level some day. Thanks for putting all of this together. It really gives a great overview of how accounts are moving.

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You are one of the ones @bozz that is helping to grow the Dolphin stake. We need more who are like you, powering up each opportunity and moving higher and higher.

Yes it does seem like forever. Let me tell, wait until you start trying to move through the Orca class towards Whale...talk about a lifetime endeavor. lol

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Haha, I can only imagine that grind! I will probably be long gone by the time I get even close to that. Perhaps one of my nephews will become interested and carry on the Bozz handle!

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Well I dont think so. I believe we will keep pushing forward, doling out tokens on a regular basis.

Another couple years, and you will be there.

After all, the first 20K is the hardest.

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Thanks!

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Proud to be one of those orcas accumulating.

I am too. I just keep powering up my rewards and keeping the pie growing.

We need Orcas to be the strongest hands. Hopefully we can see a jump over this year whereby a lot more join the ranks.

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Beginner question if I may :)
Around 40% of the whales representing 45% of the MVests are inactive. Are they mostly top witnesses ? Investors not really into posting ?
What I’m more surprised is by the percentage of inactive orcas MVests. What are the main reasons behind ?

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Hard to tell. I never really understood the inactive. On the daily charts, new signup can show up inactive. I never got how that took place.

Investors are not interested in posting, that is for sure.

Either way, those who are active are the ones who are altering the numbers. We just need to keep it up.

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The distribution is looking better in general and glad to see Orcas growing and making a larger pool. Orcas and Dolphins are the heart beat of Hive and are there to help other accounts grow. I expect to be there in March so it is not far away at all and it is a huge journey and goal to reach.

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It is sad to see the Dolphins falling back but I realize it is not there fault. The issue is with the Minnows. A number of Dolphins are moving up, pulling a lot of MVest from that pool into the Orca one.

We need a lot more Minnows starting to reach Dolphin-hood.

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With much larger audience we we can easily dilute the reward pool and then 2nd layers tokens will be more used as a reward. It's good time to buy hive in dip to have good governance control.

Very interested and informative.

100 percent upvote, reblogged and tweeted.

Bradley

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Well thank you for such a magnificent report, if in fact you can see that there is better distribution today in hive than before, since many of us converted what we had into steemit and brought it to hive, today it has decreased, I suppose it is due to investments in the second layer like you very well he says,
With redfish and minnow I think a little problem is happening, some are using their earnings to survive, and others I think they have joined some groups that force them to follow tracks and things like that, which does not give much freedom for a faster growth, but hey, everyone decides how to invest their time and effort within the blockchain, maybe it depends on how much HP delegates so they get their vote, the final this for the little ones is something hard, like everything in this life, Whoever has the most receives more, but hey, that's the way things go, that's why sometimes it's better to do your task well and the votes will come by themselves, something that has worked for me a lot, I don't complain about it, and now with I read good.
We are still here being dolphins, I never thought I could go that far and I have 50% of the holdings spread in second layer token, and in other cryptos something that I think some visionaries have also done, always remember not to put your eggs in the same basket , but as someone said when the market falls it does not matter what baskets they have, there will be a shake, and all the baskets will fall, I think I saw a report from someone who said that when a crypto rises they all go up so no matter where you are, That alt you have, they will all go up but I have learned to know that some go up more than others so you have to have some several, even if it is 5 units of each.
Greetings hand thanks for the update.

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More growth can be on the way. We just need each person adding to their holdings at whatever layer it is. At some point, the discussion will switch to governance.

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Yes, we hope that all the people involved here become passionately involved and their main goal is organic and systematic growth, when they realize the mine we have here, for now we continue working hard to achieve that growth, and the governance is what defines the roles in our beautiful platform, greetings sir.

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I was part of the 10k minnow initiative not long ago and worked a lot on helping redfish close to minnowhood to cross the line and trust me, it was very difficult to make them understand the importance.

One of the condition in order for them to get some Hive transferred to them was to continue power up. Many were cashing out everything they were earning. Some of them had no idea about different keys, power up, stake, they were just posting and let things flow.

I was happy to help but it was a difficult job, not sure how successful.

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I understand that. It is true, there is a lot of Hive hitting the exchanges and being sold.

Maybe it is time to stop focusing upon that level and just concentrate on the Dolphins and small Orcas. Those are the ones who understand and are vesting themselves to what is taking place.

Develop those categories and forget the lower tiers since it is like pulling teeth.

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Maybe it is time to stop focusing upon that level and just concentrate on the Dolphins and small Orcas.

You're right about that. You can't force anyone to power up and continue powering up. Those who are living off Hive won't do that because they need to put food on the table and trust me, given the the current economic situation, the number of these users will go up shortly.

Some can be schooled as maybe they don't know that liquid brings you less advantages than powering up, if you don't want to cash out, but those are not the majority.

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A few might set a portion of what they earn into powering up/staking for wealth building. However, the majority, as you said will sell it all.

I cant blame them. Honestly, we need to make the ecosystem powerful enough that it can support those people. This is what currency is all about, people living off it.

However, thus far, it is a slow bleed. I think it will change and the fact that more people are paying attention helps. But as always, we just need to keep harping on people to do what they need to do.

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A few might set a portion of what they earn into powering up/staking for wealth building.

I would be more than happy to see that as it would benefit both them and the chain. And would also be happy to see curators keep a healthy balance between curating quality content and posts based on users' need.

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I actually disagree about users needs. It is not up to us to determine what someones need is. Besides, should the top earning posts simply be based upon need.

We would get every sob story in the world. Hell I could put together a post that makes me look like I have a horrible life and live in a horrific situation.

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I have seen posts where needs are rewarded and not the content and hopefully that will change as it is attracting the wrong type of person and soon it will become worse.

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The number of accounts from Minnow levels and upwards is very low. Far lower than what I perceived it to be in my head. I'm currently focusing more on second layer assets, but as soon as those generate a reasonable amount of (semi)passive income, I will claw that out into HP, to go to Dolphin and beyond!

So 32 whale accounts have 7 times more HP than 1.4 m red fish accounts. It's still better than in 2017. ;-)

I've been kind of turned off to hive the last few months so I'm happily converting to Leo and believe that will have a trickle down effect. I still have some hive and I've introduced a gamer to splinterlands yesterday so maybe I will get interested in that. I've never played

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I must confess that I am a Hive addict and probably will hold onto to the tokens and power up as much as I can. I like to have a say and be able to influence along with others the direction of blockchain or the projects I participate within and one way of doing that is to build staking and curating. I hope this year will bring us joy with the announced airdrops and upcoming projects in the Hive ecosystem.

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Well that approach will net you a windfall when the claim drop from 3Speak takes place.

There is going to be based upon the holding of Hive, not the H-E equivalents.

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First of all thanks for this kind of report.

My guess is that the recent success and interest in some of the tribes is directing people in that direction. Instead of focusing upon powering up HIVE, they are putting their efforts towards the second layer. This is a sensible move both from an individual standpoint as well as the entire ecosystem. However, the key to long-term success, from that perspective, is to get more people involved in those second layer applications.

About this I think that should have a balance between 1st layer and 2nd layer power up.
2nd layers will not run if 1st layer die or I am wrong?

In my case I am trying to balance it.

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2nd layers will not run if 1st layer die or I am wrong?

That is a very valid point. HP needs to be in strong hands but also distributed across many people. The more hands it is in, the better.

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Yes, the more it is decentralized the better if not then we only have a few people to decide the future of everything

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I appreciate the analysis @taskmaster4450, I always find it interesting to look at these things!

If the hive-engine tribe/communities enjoy a period of growth, it seems to follow that we will see a good bit of growth in the number of active Redfish... people whose focus is on building whatever token they are affiliated with, and their Hive accounts being purely "coincidental."

I'll take myself as an example: Active here on LeoFinance, hoping to make it to the equivalent of "Orca" in THIS community, while I doubt I'll even have 100HP by the end of 2021. In fact, it might take me 3-4 years to even make it to Hive Minnow... anyway, my point being that it'll likely create a sort of "middle void" between those who are concentrating on a community, and those who are concentrating on Hive proper.

=^..^=

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That is all true. The key point is going to be in my next post.

But as you say, people are going to focus on what they believe gives them the greatest bank for the buck.

I wonder how things will be going if the price of HIVE starts running. Do people suddenly start dumping LEO and other tokens for HIVE?

Plus there is an upcoming claim drop from 3Speak based upon people's Hive holding.

It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

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It'll definitely be interesting!

If Hive starts running, I have a feeling the first thing we'll see is a huge ramp up in "dormant" accounts coming back to life. And if Steem is stagnant, we might even see a bunch of the people who dumped their Hive suddenly come back and start posting with their Hive accounts. As I recall, we ended up with something on the order of 80,000-100,000 actively posting accounts on Steem by December 2017. Show me $3.00 Hive, and I bet we have that here, as well. I just hope that a rise in Hive is gradual rather than parabolic so we don't just end up with a bunch of people using the rise as a reason to dump and get out...

=^..^=

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Seriously though I love these graphics! I'm a visual person so info graphics and such like this are great. Plus these could possibly be repurposed into marketing material

All credit to @arcange.

They are directly from his posts.

But yeah, I love them too. So easy to reference.

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My guess is that the recent success and interest in some of the tribes is directing people in that direction.

That would describe me. I was approaching dolphinhood when I went on a LEO/LBI (among others) staking spree. I did just power up 1000 Hive with some stimulus fiat I received. However, I just started another Hive power down to hopefully get some more LEO before the air drop. I still have a lot of faith in Hive but LEO/LBI has a strong pull for me right now.

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Keep in mind there is also a Hive airdrop coming too. Or actually it is a claimdrop being done by 3Speak.

No clue when that is happening.

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Yeah, I'm trying to keep an eye on that one too. May need to spend some more fiat for Hive PU. :)

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Bang, I did it again... I just rehived your post!
Week 39 of my contest just started...you can now check the winners of the previous week!
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Good Job! 2.jpg

Orca was 50k Hive right? i think we can do 500 :)

Interesting statistics and graphs
Thanks a lot @taskmaster4450
I'm a dolphin now but I hope to become an orca before I turn three on Hive.
A curiosity ... do you think it is possible a scenario in which killer whales and dolphins together can have more power than whales or the gap is unbridgeable?
!BEER

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Hey @taskmaster4450, here is a little bit of BEER from @libertycrypto27 for you. Enjoy it!

Learn how to earn FREE BEER each day by staking your BEER.

It is good to see that more people are realizing that second tier communities are a short path to their growth.

This year I want to dedicate myself to the maximum to reach the status of Dolphin. Since when I joined Steemit, I observed that it was practically impossible to think about becoming a Dolphin, but now at Hive and this year I know that I can reach that goal in a few months.

It will be really cool and fun to see your report and know that I have stepped up my status.

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I am a proud HIVE Orca ;)

WhatsApp Image 20210108 at 4.13.22 AM.jpeg

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