Hive: Inaugural Monthly Distribution Report Through 4/30/2020 (Whales Are Losing Power)
For about two years, I did a monthly report on Steem called "STEEM: Whales Are Losing Their Power....The System Is Not Broken". This took a look at how the distribution of Steem Power changed on a monthly basis. The presumption on there was that the Whales were just getting more powerful when the reality showed the exact opposite. When it came to Steem Power, over a two years period of time, things were flattening out.
Of course, we know that Steemit Inc selling part of the stake each month had a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, as we found out, not enough was sold.
I decided to bring this report over to Hive so that we can monitor how things are going. I am going to use the first chart I have from Steem as the initial basis since Hive has its roots there. The chart is pertinent for all categories other than the Whales since we know that is much different than on Hive due to Steemit Inc.
These are the numbers through April 30th, 2020.
Each month I monitor what is going on with new accounts and the amount of MVests in each category. I do this to determine what trends are taking place.
Now that we are at end of month, time to post the numbers again.
I want to thank @arcange for the work done each day compiling these numbers and making the charts.
We will be showing 3 months worth of data for analysis purposes to see how the 90 trend might be.
The first chart is from August of 2017, the month I started on Steem. It is placed here to provide some contrast to see how things are changing over a longer period of time.
Here is the breakdown.
8/1/2017
The total MVests here is 336,932.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 75.44%
Orcas 14.86%
Dolphins 7.16%
Minnows 2.14%
Red Fish .01%
Inactive .40%
3/31/2020
https://leofinance.io/hive-133987/@arcange/hive-statistics-20200331-en
The total MVests here is 329,353.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 45.4%
Orcas 24.95%
Dolphins 17.06%
Minnows 8.31%
Red Fish 4.28%
4/30/2020
https://leofinance.io/hive-133987/@arcange/hive-statistics-20200430-en
The total MVests here is 309,285.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 42.38%
Orcas 26.22%
Dolphins 17.95%
Minnows 8.87%
Red Fish 4.57%
The change over that time period is as such:
Whales -6.74%
Orcas +5.49%
Dolphins +5.22%
Minnows +6.74%
Red Fish +6.78%
3/31/2020
4/30/2020
So what does this all tell us?
At the moment, not a great deal. Since Hive is online for a little more than a month, it will take a while before we can analyze the trend. These two groups of charts basically give us a baseline to work from.
That said, the Whales did lose a great deal of power while other categories gained. None of this should be a surprise considering the airdrop of HIVE and the fact that some unloaded what they received.
That said, there are a couple points worth noting.
The first is, with the exception of the Whales, every category is higher today as compared to the original chart from a few years ago. In fact, except for Orcas, all are above the number of MVest of the previous higher category.
Secondly, On March 31, 2020, the Whales and Orcas had 231,703 MVests (70.35% of the total); on April 30, 2020, 212,160 MVests (68.66% of the total)...a decrease of 2.4%.
The next report should start to tell more of the story. I believe we are seeing the effect of the airdrop in some of the numbers. That said, it is good to see the overall trend appear to continue from Steem where the non-Whale categories are starting to make up a greater percentage of the share.
If you found this article informative, please give an upvote and rehive.
gif by @doze
Posted Using LeoFinance
Hi @taskmaster4450,
thanks for this report. It shows some interesting development and it will be interesting to follow this over the coming months.
One thing that came up into my mind was: how big could be the influence that some whales can't bring their steem to hive because their stakes are frozen?
About 25% of these frozen stakes could have been transferred to hive already if sunny-boy would let them.
HIVE ON!!!
There was a big shift. Since the Steemit Inc and other accounts are now in the Hive DAO, that is not part of the powering up process.
As for the others that were frozen, without a doubt many large accounts are not transferring it over to HIVE, thus keeping the distribution a bit flatter.
It certainly is an opportunity for smaller accounts to improve their position.
Posted Using LeoFinance
Thanks for the analysis. Strength in small things, the more small (plankton, fry, gudgeons and dolphins) accounts, the greater decentralization.
Yes that is a vital factor. We need to go wide. Decrentalization is a horizontal power structure, not vertical.
At present, we are still vertical although not as much as before. It is moving slowly. Hopefully we can see an increase in accounts who keep working their way up in terms of the Hive Power they are holding.
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100%
I really hope to see Splinterlands on HIVE. This will be a huge step forward.
Agreed. I believe they are in a tough position. There is a big part of their players who are still loyal to Steem. If them moved everything over, that would be the biggest app lest on Steem going away. Would people follow or quit playing the game?
Posted Using LeoFinance
It's going to be interesting to watch how this evolves with time. Thanks for doing this
It will be. My guess is that we will see the trend that was stared on Steem continue here on Hive.
The distribution was spreading out over time, just very slowly. I think we see the same process, the only question is how fast does it move?
It likely will be rather slow for a while but we could be surprised.
Posted Using LeoFinance
More and more small accounts is what we need more.
Still early days but it’s defiantly gangbysters time on hive and a great time to move up the ranks if you want to grow organically! I wonder how long this will keep up for before it becomes hard to actually mine this token through content! Also we still have plenty of power downs from the old chain so I’m sure theirs still plenty of movement coming in the next few weeks!
That is a very good question. My guess is that, if we get an explosion of users, there will be a lot of people earning a little bit of HIVE. That would mean the SMTs, HE tokens, or whatever become more important. HP is still vital for voting of witnesses, token distribution (which is looked at from the outside), and voting power.
This is how it should world in an ideal world. We will see if it unfolds that way.
Posted Using LeoFinance
I wonder what proportion of people are selling Steem to buy Hive. That could give a lot of them a nice boost, even if the exchange rate is not as good as it was. I would hope we see growth in the lesser fish.
Some are. We know a number of large accounts are not since they were frozen by Sun.
But there has to be some movement out of STEEM into HIVE as power downs take place.
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I am sure some people are selling their Hive too, but from what I have seen it is mostly going Steem to Hive. If those frozen accounts could power down then could really shift the balance. Meanwhile on Steem haejin is really milking it :)
Yeah that is no surprise. I bet he is back to his 10 posts a day and upvoting himself each time out of all his accounts.
I read that bidbots are back in full swing.
Posted Using LeoFinance
He certainly is and the top trending posts have paid votes and hardly any comments. Just like the 'bad old days'. Nobody seems inclined to downvote them. I know some people don't like to, but it is the only control we have for such behaviour.
Against that threat and spammers too.
I recall when we had all the comment farming going on.
Posted Using LeoFinance
From 75+% to less than 50% cumulative voting power for the whales. That is a pretty interesting development and definitely improves the claims that we as a community are really decentralized. It also proves that whales are willing to value good content and are allowing those who invest in the platform to become dolphins and orcas.
I do notice that the total amount of accounts on 30/4 are down compared to 31/3. Do you know why that is?
Thanks for sharing the information!
Well it is an improvement although decentralization is more of a process than a destination in my opinion. It is something that we keep moving towards. I dont know if we ever truly reach it.
As for the accounts, the Minnows went up to offset the loss of the other accounts. My guess is that many had HIVE that they powered down and sold out which moved them down the ladder.
That is why it will likely take a couple months for things to settle down and us to get a firm handle on the trends we are seeing.
Posted Using LeoFinance
You're right, it is more of process than a destination.
Looking forward to future updates 👍
This makes sense. Thanks for the charts @taskmaster4450. Already gave an upvote. All the best to you.
Thanks for the update, I hope that Hive will become more decentralized over time. Do you know the actual total supply of Hive? After we got rid of the ninja stake from justin sun and several other accounts.
368 million less the amount in the Hive DAO.
https://hiveblocks.com/
Posted Using LeoFinance
I never had 5000 Hp.
I use Hive projects almost all the time of the day. Maybe I'll be a whale in 2025 🤗
Being a HIVE whale is already out of reach for most of us. Ultimately, HIVE will serve as the transaction token on the blockchain with some voting to reward more users very small amounts.
The Whale status will be achieved through the tokens in newer projects (SMTs, Tribes, or whatever).
That is where our focus will eventually lead us to.
Posted Using LeoFinance
Man, am I glad to see this report continue! Thank you.
I look forward to next month for the start of a trend line. WooooHoooo
Yes next month will give us an indication of how things stand although I am not sure it will be truly representative since there still could be some leftover from the airdrops and an assortment of other factors that came from the hard fork.
It might take a few months to settle down and establish a true trendline.
Posted Using LeoFinance
Cool analysis, however since these accounts are not proven individuals, we don't know if a whale just turned into 10 orcas to avoid attention, etc. With the way Hive operates, we will never know.