The Hive early adopter fallacy

in LeoFinance7 months ago

An interesting statement was made the other day about the advantage that early adopters have in Hive and I disagree. The problem with this view is that it makes the assumption that all one has to do is be early in and the gains are guaranteed, and this simply isn't the case. What was more interesting I think about the statement was that it was coming from someone who joined in mid-2017 - which by most people's measure, is an early adopter of Hive - but don't seem to have taken advantage of being an early adopter themselves. So, what's the deal?

Being an early adopter of a new technology has an advantage of opportunity, but it doesn't mean that an early adopter is going to act upon it, invest themselves into it, or behave in a way that enhances their experience. Often, it is quite the opposite, where early adopters take the opportunity for granted instead of as an opportunity at all. I have watched hundreds, if not thousands of accounts that could have both added value and increased their worth on Hive over the years, only to squander the potential for various reasons. It isn't just that they didn't invest, it isn't just that they used their earnings rather than build their stake, it isn't just that they failed to do anything that others in the community found valuable, it is often a combination of all of these things - and probably more.

I am not criticizing them for what I would consider the loss of opportunity, but it isn't a failure of the system, or at least as they seem to think it is. For example, I know plenty of accounts that joined around the same mid-2017 and they are very large dolphins and orcas in the same time frame, and the reason they have consistently been able to build their account is because they have consistently taken the opportunity to be part of the community when they can in ways that the community have deemed valuable.

While many of those who see the failure of Hive as it doesn't give opportunity to small accounts, it is an uncomfortable fact that many of the larger accounts on the platform have built themselves up from nothing. The assumption is that those who have been "successful" must have done it dishonestly is also one of the beliefs held by many who have failed to take advantage of opportunity - but again, it is an uncomfortable fact that this is not the case. Anyone who wants to check, the track-record of accounts is available to see.

If anyone bothered to actually check, a lot of the larger "from nothing" accounts are those who have put in the effort required in ways that are seen as meaningful for an early adopter to take advantage of the potential energy, the opportunity of being in early. It is a "buy low, sell high" approach where the early effort was made for potentially very little reward, but later it takes less effort for the same return. It is like the development of any skill, the cost in energy to ramp up is high, but maintenance of a skill is quite easy.

The thing is, Hive is not a place for everyone, even though anyone can join, because it is too complex for some, too basic for others and too "toxic" for a few. But, this is the case for anywhere there is the opportunity in a young industry and probably anywhere there is value. The life of an early adopter isn't for everyone either, nor is the position of an investor. risk taker or loss maker. Yeah, there is a high propensity for loss on Hive - loss of money for those who put in some fiat, loss of time and effort for those who invest their energy and for me who is willing to lose all of that, loss of patience with those who continually complain about the place.

I think loss of patience is common on Hive, though most are probably impatiently waiting for it to make them rich - an easy thing to want in this life of course as so many who come onto Hive are struggling financially. That is pretty obvious, because people worry about small amounts (even if from wealthy regions) and so many are unable to put some of their personal value into their stake. You can say that they are unwilling because of the community itself - but those same people are here talking and posting and complaining about values and opportunity to grow their account.

@themarkymark has been running some "buy small amounts of Hive" posts lately, 5, 10, 20 dollars worth - and while that is a lot in some countries, it isn't in pretty much any western country for pretty much anyone unless they are homeless. Then, if a person is unwilling to buy in out of some ethical or moral stance on the platform, why are they here and why are they transacting and willing to take any HIVE from the pool at all? Wouldn't that make them unethical and immoral?

The thing is, that pretty much anyone who came into Hive in 2016 or 2017 could have got some traction and built a relatively well-sized account as long as they put some consistent effort into something that the community actually cared about. Even 2018 and 2019 accounts can be of decent sizes - I know quite a few. It doesn't mean every post will have got voted highly, in fact, most might not have been at all, but if they had consistently built anyway, even a slow growth would be significant now.

The thing is that being an early adopter doesn't change skills, it doesn't change personality, it doesn't change behavior unless that early adopter chooses to change, chooses to look at what they are doing, the environment they have available, and then shifting (if they need to) to use the potential of the tolls at hand. There isn't one tool, there are many, there isn't one way, there are many. The thing is, that just because one person wasn't able to take advantage of early adopter status, it doesn't mean others did something wrong to be where they are today.

My failure isn't your failure - your failure isn't mine. Own your life.

Every industry that has ever matured is littered with the bodies of early adopters who had the opportunity to take advantage of the potential, but failed to do so for one reason or another. It could be that they weren't willing to invest, couldn't bear to wear the loss, didn't have the mindset to look long enough or had to pull out early because of immediate needs. Because these industries survive and thrive today means that they were successful, despite the failure of many early adopters to benefit from being in early.

I don't blame people for complaining about the system if the system they are not personally suited for the system, but at some point, people have to recognize that just because they might not be built for the current conditions, it doesn't mean no one is.

For me, I came onto Hive financially wiped out and desperate, but have chosen to roll the dice on the future, work hard IRL and keep expanding my footprint in crypto, in ways that I am comfortable with. Most people won't be comfortable doing what I do - not because it is wrong - but it is too much work, takes too much time and comes saddled with too much risk of loss. We all make our own decisions the best we can.

The funny thing about the early adopter fallacy of benefits is, many people don't recognize that this is 2020 - we are all early adopters in this industry. If you don't see that, perhaps you are one of the people who will take the opportunity for granted, instead of to your advantage.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

Posted Using LeoFinance

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I agree, Taraz. I've been here almost since the beginning, July of 2016, and have never taken a break for more than a week or so. I had an amazing run the first few years but don't get much engagement these days and that's fine with me. I really enjoy seeing others make a success out of themselves.

I saw so many of my counterparts from Gen 1 leave. Some left because of the toxicity or lack of vision from those running things (Steemit), others abandoned the platform when the currency took a dive. Most of those people end up coming back and regretting the time they lost on the platform. That's time they could've been building. I guess the crypto and traditional financial markets are no different. Most investors buy high and sell low because they're chasing the rest of the herd and react based on base emotion instead of reason.

It's super frustrating when you see the potential in something and others don't recognize it yet. You're right that we are still very early in this space. Does that mean Hive will ultimately thrive and survive? Only time will tell but patience will be needed before we find out. I mean years. In the meantime we should all have fun, support one another, spread the word, create awesome content, and think outside of the box about how we can use this platform to its absolute fullest potential.

I'm currently using Hive to craft my new book, Mindful Moments: Perfecting The Pause. The chapters came about as a series of blog posts published over the past twelve months. I'll be relying on my audience to be beta-readers for the final draft of each chapter. The Hive these posts raise will provide a kind of crowdfunding for the illustrator, book designer, and promotion of the book. It's so exciting and it's working incredibly well so far. I hope people try more things like this, it not only encourages engagement but provides an example to the world of the potential of Hive. If the book becomes a bestseller you can bet I'll be promoting Hive at every opportunity.

I had an amazing run the first few years but don't get much engagement these days and that's fine with me.

What do you think has changed in regards to engagement?

I guess the crypto and traditional financial markets are no different. Most investors buy high and sell low because they're chasing the rest of the herd and react based on base emotion instead of reason.

Yep, the bandwagon effect and the higher the peak, the more who try to jump on.

Does that mean Hive will ultimately thrive and survive? Only time will tell but patience will be needed before we find out. I mean years.

Yeah, it is going to take a fair amount of time and also a fair amount of luck. Competition is coming and if we don't get our ducks in a row, we will get caught out. I am glad that development is happening that is expanding the potential uses and hopefully, creates a few spinoff ideas to expand the space. The digital landscape is limitless.

I like the idea of people developing off-chain content from their on-chain interaction and exploration. I see it as a fine use case of the community as well as a way to build awareness externally. I gave you a follow by the way now so I can keep an eye on your continued journey :)

It's difficult to pinpoint why my engagement dropped off from what it was, probably a combination of things. I was making insane amounts a few months after I joined and I think certain folks just followed and engaged to get my upvotes. That engagement dropped off immediately after the price of Steem feel sharply following SteemFest 1. I was also posting my novel, Alarm Clock Dawn, in installments which got a lot of attention and drew people to my page. I have a smaller circle of really loyal readers now, which I enjoy. I like reading their posts as well.

I don't think Hive has to worry much about competition, we have to focus on making the ever evolving platform better, using it in new ways, and also have someone step up who's willing to manage the growth of it all. Each person who owns any of the Hive currency has a stake in the future of the platform and should realize, we're all ambassadors. This might quell some of the toxic behaviors if people realized when they do this they're only hurting themselves. Adequate leadership is where Steemit always, and very frustratingly, fell short. They mostly relied on the followers to promote the platform and that only goes so far. Even a decentralized platform needs a team of inspired individuals to help manage growth and foster outreach.

Thanks for the follow. Cheers to our collective future!

I came in when Steem was hovering at the all time lows (not that I knew that as I was clueless), but found engagement pretty good considering what I was writing about. This increased over time from about 6 months in when I started engaging heavily myself. I think long form content requires a slow build and that "loyal readership" you enjoy.

The competition is only a problem if we don't grow the space effectively. At the moment, it is fine, but I find the constant tweaking of numbers for the economics frustrating, as there are other things to work on too. Yes, these need to be tweaked - but so does the ease of gamification of user interfaces through the code (as an example).

Each person who owns any of the Hive currency has a stake in the future of the platform and should realize, we're all ambassadors. This might quell some of the toxic behaviors if people realized when they do this they're only hurting themselves.

I think a lot of people (often without much stake) take the negative path as it is the way they can gather the sense of support, as these types tend to group together and stick together.

Adequate leadership is where Steemit always, and very frustratingly, fell short. They mostly relied on the followers to promote the platform and that only goes so far. Even a decentralized platform needs a team of inspired individuals to help manage growth and foster outreach.

This is where I see projects (SMTs) will have to step up strongly and become business models. They don't need to promote Hive, they need to get support for their own business/experience in the same way a website doesn't sell the internet.

Thanks for stopping by for the chat :)

Okay, so first of all, i used to be active on steemit, and just returned there. I saw that it had gone to shit, so now i moved here instead. I am probably one of those people you mention who didn't put in the work, but i would like to add my thoughts.

For me, this is mainly a social website, that has the added benefit of making you a bit of money. So for me, i was simply too busy to spend time on a social media/ blog/ idea site. Now that i am finishing my masters degree however, i hope to have some more time.
But i don't think people should get into the site to "make it big". People should just post about stuff they are passionate about, take part in the community, and be happy with that. If that ends up making them "rich" that is great, but it shouldn't be the goal. That seems to happen way too often with youtubers, and they rarely succeed if they just want to make money.

The people who are successful on youtube are the ones who are passionate, and puts out great content (most often), and i hope it's the same here

Welcome back -it has been a while since steem.chat :)

People should just post about stuff they are passionate about, take part in the community, and be happy with that.

The challenge for many is that they either don't know what they are passionate about, or think that it won't earn them money. People put the money over the value of doing what they are passionate about.

That seems to happen way too often with youtubers, and they rarely succeed if they just want to make money.

Because the audience knows that they are faking it. Though, people are pretty blind these days in regards to this, which is why so many of the social movements get traction.

Thank you, i am looking forward to seeing what the community has turned into!

I know that it is extremely privileged to say that you should choose passion over money, and not everyone is able to do that. I will most likely start a new job in a startup soon, with equity instead of a salary, meaning that i won't be making a dime in a long time. But i am still excited about doing it.

I normally find it easy to spot the youtubers/ creators who has a genuine love for what they do, and it always makes their channel 10 times better

Yeah, I can agree with so-called passion posting. But you need to have some luck, too. Or a whale who supports you ... but that's another story ...

Sure, a little luck never hurts :)

 7 months ago 

Congratulations, you're out in the water, but you need to be paddling, hard, before the wave arrives, or it's just going to go right under you.

It's always "give me things NOW! I do not want to bother myself with putting effort" type of shit that make me laugh. Obviously they are not doing well in the job field because that is going to be a failure almost every single time. If it is a success then that's a real shame.

I think that anyone who's on here from today and back to the beginning is still an early adopter. We are in here before the masses and even then who knows what will happen. Are we even at 50k daily active, unique users across the world? I will have to look at Penguin Pablo's stats to find out but that's small potatoes. Even if we got to 100k daily active unique users that's a drop in the bucket compared to the giants like Fakebook and others.

I also think these are the same people who say "YOU were around when the price of hive was "$0.xxx"!!!, you're lucky!!!" When the hive price now is still dirt cheap.. but most of them won't be buying any of it.

Are we even at 50k daily active, unique users across the world?

Not at the moment, perhaps if there was a spike in price to 10 dollars! :D It is more like 5-10k daily, though there is a lot of automation that makes it look like more.

I also think these are the same people who say "YOU were around when the price of hive was "$0.xxx"!!!, you're lucky!!!" When the hive price now is still dirt cheap.. but most of them won't be buying any of it.

I heard this when it was 5 dollars, 2 dollars, 15 cents - some people will never buy - no matter whathighs they cashed in at.

!ENGAGE 20

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I suppose by the standards some set I would be an early adopter, direct investment from fiat to crypto is something I have only done through buying, and then selling of steemmonster cards, (at the time the sales did not cover the cost of the cards purchased nor won).

With the split to Hive from Steem, I am now at a point that my account looks big to some new users, I thought those with 5,000 SP were large accounts on Steem. I still in my mind see that as the real success point. It was a slightly over 5,000 SP account that gave me my first delegation and helped me reach the first milestone of Minnow.

I myself only know of one true early adopter that made very little outside investment that was able to work and use steem and eventually buy a small house with the help of his steem account. A success story for short term early adopter. The reality is though, I know very few first 3 month account holders that are active on Hive. (I may know more than I know but with out a hard look at when people joined I would not know for sure). Most of the early adopters I know are from the Nov/Dec 16 time frame til the point I joined Aug 1, 2017.

So I really do not see an early adopter advantage. The advantage is for those that have the extra funds, or can scrape up extra funds for actual investing, and that have the stomach for making the investment. I really have neither of those. What I do have though is an abundance of patience. Even though i am older than a lot I don't have that immediacy of life's want and got to have it now, attitude. I can wait. I was sad to see what happened on/with steem, but I have made the transition to Hive, and will continue with my 5 year plan, (2 to go), and see where things are then.

The reality is though, I know very few first 3 month account holders that are active on Hive.

You probably know more than you think, but there aren't that many out there active that still have stake. A lot of the early adopters cashed out and never got back into the game, they became "investment shy" even when prices went from 2.50 down to 6 cents - they never bought back.

The advantage is for those that have the extra funds, or can scrape up extra funds for actual investing, and that have the stomach for making the investment.

Yes. And this is why so many people aren't willing to buy, as their life doesn't allow them to, but that isn't the fault oif Hive or the industry. If anything, crypto is their opportunity to get into investing at a level they can't elsewhere with very little capital. Hive allows for some building with no capital.

. I can wait. I was sad to see what happened on/with steem, but I have made the transition to Hive, and will continue with my 5 year plan, (2 to go), and see where things are then.

A five year plan is goood and in 2, we will see what the next 5 will hold for us :)

!ENGAGE 20

Steem/Hive was my introduction to Crypto Currency. I am learning, and have built a small nest egg, whether that will grow or be worth anything is for the future to decide. If it works well, it could be a bonus to my social security, if mot I only lost 200 or so dollars.

Yep, it is a funny thing that with 5000 Hive, you could be very well off in the future or, it will be nothing. A few years from now, it will be one or the other.

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I really enjoyed reading this post and also the comment in it. To me, there is nothing like early adopter. In this ecosystem, it is only your mindset/target/dedication that makes you grow. I know someone that joined steemit when it all started but didnt achieved anything. I know who joined just recently and now making waves.

I will just say different folks different stroke. The tune is different for we all, becuase you are successful here doesnt mean others are cursed. They are people who put in all last effort but nothing achieved. Because they are early adopters and they failed doesn't mean they are failing in life. They might be doing better than us or than we think.

For me, I am here and because I am here right now, I am happy being a member. I will do my best to prove a point here. I know more than half of people who I joined this great platform have all quit. Because they are not seeing the support they need after all time spent. But I am seeing this place as more than just that. Communities again have make this place a better place. Just join a community and gradually you will move up the ladder and finally, dont expect upvote all the time. Just do your best and leave the rest for God.

Since I joined this ecosysten, Steemm/hive has really helped me to meet up with life gradually. I am still struggling to balance with life, I know someday things will be better.

Nice post

What is great about Hive is that different folks with different strokes can still take their own path above the same platform. Hive is far more like the Internet than it is like Facebook, it is more like an infrastructure, not a piece of software - anyone can build here.

In time, the community will spread far and wide through the development of applications designed specifically for a narrow audience, not for a general one. That will make it lovable by all kinds, not just crypto people.

Thanks for taking the time to comment well!

!ENGAGE 25

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Hive is not for everyone I agree. People don't easily lose their patience on Hive only, it happens in real life as well. Their attitude reflects what's inside. Of course the majority of people want to find a blame, an external cause for the failure. It is too uncomfortable to take a magnifying glass and put in on yourself. Of course it is easy to say that because of him/her I did/didn't do that. Own your life. Here you are spot on. Too few individuals assume responsibility for their actions. The platform is off, the technology is hard, my partner takes my time, the success is rigged etc etc. Excuses. Every person has a full bag filled with excuses while the bag of responsibility is empty. Who wants success better empty their excuse bag and fill up the other one.

Excuses. Every person has a full bag filled with excuses while the bag of responsibility is empty.

At the end of things, we are all left holding bags of something and I predict a life of responsibility is more of a journey than that of excuses.

Well said!
!ENGAGE 20

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As one of those 2017 early adopters I agree with much of what you say. Finally I have reached 5000 HP and have also been able to funnel some Hive into other tokens I have an interest in on Hive Engine, Bitcoin and EOS.
For me these three years has been a great education in crypto and a nice new hobby to have.
I do understand the envy some have of those who get large upvotes and engagement. Its understandable but if you focus on that it is energy better spent on doing your thing and improving yourself.
I like to produce content that is evergreen and although it has been hit or miss with the present audience this content has value for me that is beyond the Hive.
We are all early adopters, even now. In my time I have seen many changes and I'm sure things will continue to change.
Ignore trending and those whose success makes you feel small. Compete with yourself and you always win.

The education I have got here is very valuable to me, as are most of the relationships I have formed - people I like and interact with in real life also.

I understand the jealousy too, especially as most people don't actually look at the track records of accounts, they evaluate on a single post. It is like judging a professional footballer on a single kick - good or bad.

I can attest to all things presented in this post. I am/was an early adopter. I grew and contributed and grew some more. I brought some folks onboard. Then the market dipped and many folks left. I stayed for a long time after the last bull-run because I believed in the principles here. I was inspired to work harder to offer value. I worked hard on photography and editing. I was inspired to get my art and drawing going again. These boosts of inspiration were incentivized by the fact I could be valued.

I share a thing on Facebook and get nothing... hardly even any sentiments.

Here folks appreciated the hard work and that was encouraging. I am thankful that crypto and blockchain technology could be something of interest that would ultimately combine with my passions. This is an incredible time to be involved in anything that will lead us into the future.

Anything worth doing, is worth doing it right. Nothing is free. The time and effort plus the care and concern pays off though... even when the market is overall down. I did have a hiatus for a while as life kicked in and I had to pursue other things for a time. I will say i never gave up on the whole idea. I played a whole lot of 'Steem Monsters' but didn't feel like that counted as contributing to the overall value of that chain. I am super thankful for all those in the development and tech side that provide platforms and opportunities such as HIVE for folk like myself. I came back in September 2017 and felt I was late to the party!

I am back and motivated and encouraged. I haven't posted as often yet but I intend to. I have been working on my art to begin sharing again and if it wasn't for HIVE i probably wouldn't have taken the time to get that ball rolling just now. I could share more photography posts... but I don't want to try to overcompensate for being gone for so long. Thanks Taraz for always being a voice of reason and I do appreciate this post. I relate to the good, the bad, and the ugly in all that you said. I wish I had been growing this whole time even if just by voting. I wish i had been a better steward of the delegation I had back in the day. I won't take this community and opportunity for granted. I am quite thankful for it!

I don't know what HIVE GENERATION I would be but... I am glad to be here early.

I share a thing on Facebook and get nothing... hardly even any sentiments.

Funny isn't it? People seem to stay on these platforms that are so full of content, but not actually care about what gets posted there enough to engage with it. They are personal content dumps.

I have been working on my art to begin sharing again and if it wasn't for HIVE i probably wouldn't have taken the time to get that ball rolling just now.

The communities for art are becoming vibrant places these days. Not sure about the "values" but there is some great content out there.

I wish I had been growing this whole time even if just by voting.

I am guessing that this is how many might feel one day - definitely isn't "too late" for anyone at this point.

Be well.

!ENGAGE 20

Thanks man! I have been supporting some of the newer artists since you mentioned that community. I was one of the first artists on MakersPlace but I didn't keep on keepin' on there either. I didn't get Eth and gas prices and the Metamask wallet at that time. Glad to see Hive having a similar gallery that I plan on joining once I get some work done to add. This peice I have been working on the last few days is a little strange but I keep thinking of you while i am working on it. I have been listening to a 6 1/2 hour musical compilation of a few albums that are supposed to be an artistic simulation of dementia. I found out about it and wanted to put myself in that mindspace. It's been pretty dark to say the least. I am at the last hour and almost finished with the artwork that is coming from the experience. Sorry for oversharing as usual... Thanks for all you do. You have been an inspiration as well in more ways than one.

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I am one who lost patience. On my other account, rather than build my account with posts and curation, I have been buying. It's funny, an early adopter can be outdone by somebody with a lot of cash. Instant Whale. The opportunity is there for all of us.

I didn't really figure out that I could build up my Hive account until I started buying other crypto. One day, I reached $5000 in value from crypto, more than I had ever saved in cash. That's when it clicked that I could do the same thing with Hive. I obviously have the means and the ability to set aside money. It would be the equivalent of about 20K Hive, except that it would actually be more because I'd be earning Hive along the way.

We have the ability to do more than we think we can do. And if we can do that, why couldn't we take it a bit further the next time? With Hive, that's kind of baked in. Each action grows our stake a little more. We just have to keep raising the bar on ourselves.

Posted Using LeoFinance

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It's funny, an early adopter can be outdone by somebody with a lot of cash. Instant Whale. The opportunity is there for all of us.

Yes, in stake, but one has to have the capital and will available. However, here are plenty who have bought the stake but have never garnered community support. Buying in or working in are different animals. I prefer the hybrid approach, because I like participating - as well as potential future financial gain.

We have the ability to do more than we think we can do. And if we can do that, why couldn't we take it a bit further the next time?

The road to mastery -continual improvement.

!ENGAGE 20

I am all in on Hive. I cannot understand why people aren't standing in line to buy it at such a bargain-basement price. Do they know that they could easily make this the place everybody wants to call home?

I feel a little adrift here today, I am not sure why.

Where is that feeling that all is well in the Hive? I want it back! :(

!tip

Do they know that they could easily make this the place everybody wants to call home?

No, they are worried about squabbling over chicken scraps.

Where is that feeling that all is well in the Hive? I want it back! :(

All is well! ebbs and flows are needed to create the swell to surf.

It seems to me that one's influence on HIVE is driven primarily by the amount of HP one has in their account. If a new account bought 100,000 in HP, that new account would be a smash hit on HIVE. Long term accounts that sell off their HP lose most of their influence.

Yes, it is more difficult to build an account without buying HP. This complaint comes from people who want an opportunity where they invest nothing and receive great reward. That is they want a free lottery. I guess there was a brief moment when crypto was a free lottery ticket ... but that time has past.

Because influence is driven by the HP in an account, HIVE does not have the early adopter bias of other platforms.

If a new account bought 100,000 in HP, that new account would be a smash hit on HIVE.

Nope, I know several that struggle for traction who have done precisely this in those amounts and more.

I guess there was a brief moment when crypto was a free lottery ticket ... but that time has past.

Yep. Most projects will die off fast (next few years) but there will be more to come. I am counting on Hive making it through the cut.

Nope, I know several that struggle for traction who have done precisely this in those amounts and more.

That is not good.

I bought enough HP so that the value of my upvote is over $0.02. This small purchase completely changed the way people interact with my account.

A $0.02+ vote is a magic number as the system sends out notifications. It also means I can upvote replies with confidence that the commenter will receive the upvote. People buying at the dolphin and orca level probably receive a political backlash.

I don't think it is necessarily a political backlash, but I think that often people who buy forget that from a community perspective, engagement is still king.

If we can't vote with our feet and pitchforks, what can we vote with? Early adopters have a lot of risk and responsibility. I don't think they will necessarily be better rewarded unless they sold a bundle for a profit. I know a few people who've been here less than a year that are doing great, better than some who've been here 4 years.

Yeah. Those that sold even a portion(I didn't) at the highs are likely well up -but that also lowers their stake long term if they don't buy back. I always said - let Stinc dump but everyone was worried about the price.

Never selling is a decent principle, especially if you don't need the money, but it is not a particularly good strategy. I prefer to buy low and sell high (not as easy as it sounds). We have been through quite a few highs and lows.

I can honestly say, I have more Hive than I started with excluding the airdrop. But that is a rather convoluted statement. In some ways, I consider the support of crypto in general as most important. I haven't cashed out since late 2017. I also rarely mess around with stable tokens.

In any case, I think we are all most of us are going to do so well it's going to be silly to argue over this kind of stuff.

I have diversified a bit but still hold too much nonsense. I was in the process of beginning to consolidate just before the BTC run up, that wiped out my last few months of trades :D

In any case, I think we are all most of us are going to do so well it's going to be silly to argue over this kind of stuff.

Yep, it is silly - but there is no end to envy.

Actually, I just sold some crap today and deleted a few coins from my tracker cause they are down 99% and the only social media posts are people asking what happened. It's still in my wallet in the unlikely event it becomes worth the fees. I also found out one of my long shots is up 50% and looks like it could become a 10X or even 50X if things get to ATH again.

I like to HODL, but I also have common sense and HODL defies common sense a lot of times.

There are random pumps moving across the entire market now -so I am waiting to get some decent sells in as the bots try to squeeze more out of them. My volumes don't move the meter much :)

This post is a thing of beauty. I can attest, coming in around 2017, that what you say is true. I have seen people steadily build their accounts up. From nothing to respectable. I have seen them put in work to build communities. I have seen them engage with others. They've built tools. They've created radio shows. They've organized events. They meet up weekly just to talk...off chain. They invest time and money 5 dollars at a time. Simply put, they put in work. Are they whales? Not today, but if they keep going, I don't see how they couldn't be.

I made a post the other day about being the change that you want to see. I think that for many, it's just not something they think to do. You want a whale to upvote you? Do you upvote them, do you engage with them? Do their posts even interest you? Do you actually need them?? Why do you allow them to determine your success?

Let me step off the soap box since it's your thread, but suffice to say, I feel you on this one.

A lot of people chase the bog "lottery" votes, without building up a consistent user base. It takes work to build an audience, work most aren't willing to put in. If someone wants to have a changed position in life - they are the only ones likely interested - so they better be that change.

A bit like collecting 200 PAI, it is easier to earn over time than all in one day :)

Did you do all of that in one day!?

No chance! :D

There is some truth in it, from the perspective of hindsight.
It is always, "an informed opinion", once you know the outcome.
Just like the "friends" who console you with the advice after failure, "What you shoulda done..."

The "early adopters" take risks. sometimes calculated, sometimes not. I could have bought Bitcoin at $200, when David Seaman first mentioned it on his channel. But, I didn't.

But, the statement itself, is not wrong. It is all a matter of perspective. :)

There is always the shoulda, woulda coulda - but fewer make the actions to move forward. 200 dollar bitcoin, 2000 dollar bitcoin - 20,000 dollar bitcoin - at some point, we have to look in the mirror.

we're not all as beautiful as you, we just walk past the mirror & stick with our own version of what we want to see hahaha

The only early adopters I have issue with are those who mined on PoW and soaked in big rewards while Stinc was setting up their early stake to control the network. Those are the real early adopters that have an unfair advantage in the network. Otherwise I fully agree were all early adopters and have all the opportunity to grow from here.

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There is a range in that group too, some have done a lot more than others over the last 4 years to improve the place, some a lot less.

Agree with that as well but even if they have done a load of good do they deserve their, in my opinion, unfair rewards from before the network was really the network? I'd be happy to see them keep their rewards earned from posting, which likely are higher since large accounts earn better, and curation but would love to see all PoW rewards burned from the network.

I don't think that is possible in any way, as while we might not agree - at the time they did what they did,that was the way it was. We have to consider what happened at that time from the perspective of that time and anyone who knew and had the opportunity would have done the same as them, without knowing where it was going to lead at all. At that point, they didn't have any idea if it was going to become something either, only in hindsight can we see that. While they really didn't have to put much in for what they got, it could also have very well ended up going straight to zero too.

I don't fault them for taking advantage of a flawed system that Stinc used to capture power over the network. I just don't see why we (the network) would remove Stinc stake for Hive without doing the same to those early stakeholders if we really care for decentralization and our community's consensus. They didn't provide any meaningful advancement to the blockchain, other than some hashing for a validation method we never used long term, for those rewards to be actually warranted. Again I feel the only use for PoW was to let a small group (Stinc) capture control of the network without an ICO and the legal repercussions that the team were fearful of. The actual miners didn't do anything for the network other than provide some competition to Stinc for those early seed funds.

As for not knowing how the network would turn out I'm sure they've received plenty of economic benefit from their initial large stake in the form of curation rewards and added author visibility from their stake to reward them much less what they've been able to sell in past bull runs. It would have been a dream if Hive instead forked the codebase of Steem and we all agreed to start at 0 again where the actual community began distributing rewards from real consensus versus the consensus of a few people who have obtained stake without this community's consensus.

I just don't see why we (the network) would remove Stinc stake for Hive without doing the same to those early stakeholders if we really care for decentralization and our community's consensus.

Because it was gained in a slightly different way, including the Stinc "restart" when they fucked up with their miners.

The actual miners didn't do anything for the network other than provide some competition to Stinc for those early seed funds.

But, over the course of the 4 years and now, some of those miners are still working for the network.

It would have been a dream if Hive instead forked the codebase of Steem and we all agreed to start at 0 again where the actual community began distributing rewards from real consensus versus the consensus of a few people who have obtained stake without this community's consensus.

This would have been terrible for someone like me, who put almost 4 years of work into building an account and presence, only to have to fucked over twice - first on Steem, then on Hive. There would have been zero benefit for anyone who had remained active through all of that shit, over all of that time.

But, over the course of the 4 years and now, some of those miners are still working for the network.

They were still rewarded for those later contributions in the form of votes on the posts they made for those contributions. They were likely rewarded better for their contributions than someone like myself who has a lower stake than them since votes follow money and they would be in a better place to get quality rewards from their contributions.

This would have been terrible for someone like me, who put almost 4 years of work into building an account and presence, only to have to fucked over twice - first on Steem, then on Hive. There would have been zero benefit for anyone who had remained active through all of that shit, over all of that time.

It's completely fair that a lot of users wouldn't adopt a new network that didn't retain their past contributions. That is probably the biggest advantage of the air drop is encouraging adoption of this fork. That being said anyone who would adopt a blank network would immediately be in charge of the network as they wouldn't be fighting an upstream battle against ill-gotten stake. It's likely the rewards for users who adopt a blank network would be higher than the average of users who adopted the Hive fork.

They were still rewarded for those later contributions in the form of votes on the posts they made for those contributions.

Yes, but without the stake or the stake spread widely, would developers get rewarded by artists and poets? The development would still need to happen, but not everyone would understand the value of it.

That being said anyone who would adopt a blank network would immediately be in charge of the network as they wouldn't be fighting an upstream battle against ill-gotten stake. I

For better and worse though. A lot of the early accounts were relatively "self-centered" and without some kind of mechanism to discourage that, it could create a very bad result. Remember that while there might be a start from zero, no one in that first group would be a blank slate with some of the most abusive from the past having nothing in their way to counter their abuse. dart/tard come to mind, as do quite a few others.

Gosh, mid 2017, it feels like a lifetime ago. I’m so grateful to have been here since then and never taking more than a few day break. It’s constant work but also very rewarding in many ways. I feel like we are gonna watch back this time and just say WOW.

It feels like a different life - like I have been reincarnated since then :D

I feel like we are gonna watch back this time and just say WOW.

Either WOW (how wonderful) or WOW (what the fuck were we thinking) :)

Exactly, but WOW for sure! 😂

Wait. You mean I don't have some huge advantage by being an early adopter? :)

I'm not entirely satisfied with my 'balance growth' in the 2.5 years I've been here, but I know exactly who is to blame for that. Me.

Early adopter doesn't mean a 'work free' path to success, but it does imply that the real money in lots of projects goes to Select early adopters. It's like sex at the local pub on Saturday night. Some get it, some don't.

I consider myself an early adopter, and figure the path is wide open and waiting for me to walk it. All I can ask for.

You mean I don't have some huge advantage by being an early adopter? :)

You have my respect ;D

It's like sex at the local pub on Saturday night. Some get it, some don't.

Exactly, being at the pub increases the chances, more for some than others.

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