Skin in the future

I miss quite a lot of buys and sells by a couple satoshis and it is pretty annoying to think what that might mean to my total stack a few years down the track from now. If you consider that if the total future supply of Bitcoin was spread evenly across the global population, each could hold a max of 0.003 BTC, there really isn't that much to go around - that 0.003 has a current value of 27 dollars each.

Interestingly, if the current supply of HIVE was spread evenly in the same way - each person on earth would have a max of around 0.05 Hive - Yes, 1/20th of a HIVE. That means that with my 132,000 HIVE POWER, I have the equivalent of 2,640,000 people's HIVE - Half of Finland's population. That 0.05 HIVE is currently worth 1 cent.

Of course, none of these numbers really mean anything, but I am constantly surprised at how few people will take a punt on buying a few Hive, just in case this whole "crypto thing" does go big - as Hive is a place that has a good chance of being a gateway for many into crypto, in the same way it has already been a gateway for many into crypto. lot of people on Hive didn't no much about blockchain or crypto prior and there are many including myself who have learned a lot from their time here.

While it is great to earn crypto for free, I was wondering what amount is needed for the future. Now, this is going to depend heavily on personal requirements as well as localized conditions, so it is all speculation - but then, crypto is all speculation at this point.

So, let's speculate.

Imagine you want to have a million dollars worth of crypto in the future, how much do you need now? How long is a piece of string... Yeah, it is incalculable because we do not know the future value at all. So it comes down to personal expectation and timelines and a host of other decisions, meaning we should narrow it a bit.

What do you expect the price of Bitcoin to be in five years from today?

Let's say that in five years, Bitcoin is going to be 1,000,000 dollars. Therefore, we would need 1 Bitcoin today and that is currently valued at 9100 dollars. So, if we predict the five year value from now to be at a million, for 9100 dollars today, we can be millionaires. Do you have 1 Bitcoin? Do you have 9100 dollars you are willing to buy one with?

Note, 9,100 dollars would buy 43,300 HIVE today and to be worth a million, Hive would need to reach 23 dollars in that five years. Well, that is not quite true as if one actively uses it to vote with and gets an average APR of 10%, you would have about 72,000 HIVE POWER, so it would need to be around 14 dollars per HIVE for the stack to be worth one million.

Now, you might think that it will take 10 years for BTC to get to a million, you might think it will take two, you might think it is going to half in price or go to zero also. Speculation.

As said, it is great to be able to earn crypto "for free" in various ways and I am fortunate that on Hive I get to do something I thoroughly enjoy to earn with, but that doesn't stop me from buying when I can, or stopping myself from spending if I can - which I have been pretty successful with so far. I have made my first ever purchase with crypto recently though - a pair of Bluetooth earbuds for my wife. Five years from now, that purchase could have cost me 3000 dollars... I didn't want to make the purchase, but it was necessary to keep the card I used active.

How I see it is that my future financial position is likely heavily tied to crypto on the upside, where if I am ever to be comfortable, it will likely be crypto that makes it possible. The results without crypto doesn't actually change much, as I am doing what I can with what I have with what I earn too. This means that if crypto does do well in the future, every dollar I put in now has a far greater value in the future, every dollar I don't put in will suffer the opportunity cost.

This means that in the future of 1 million dollar Bitcoin, every 3€ bottle of Pepsi I buy today is going to cost me 300 dollars later. I can use that 3€ to quench my thirst by consuming the Pepsi or, I can drink a glass of water and use the 3€ to consume 0.000329 of a Bitcoin. If I think that Bitcoin will one day go to a million, that glass of water looks pretty good next to a 300€ Pepsi.

Now, we might want to have 1 million, 10 million or 10 thousand dollars in some future, but the decisions we make now are going to affect the outcome in a set period of time or, lengthen or shorten the timeline. You might want this amount for yourself or at your disposal for others, for example in a charity - but if investing into the future, one has to be forward-thinking and have some process to build a view of that future and the steps required to get there. Yes, collecting whatever crypto one gets for free might be enough to satisfy that future you and your needs, but it also might not.

Trade or no, we are all speculating on the future in multiple ways daily, even if we aren't in crypto or trading of any kind. In Finland for example, very few save for their children's education, as education is largely state sponsored - they speculate that in 15-20 years from now, that will still be the case - I predict that it won't be, or the requirements to "qualify" for free education are incredibly high. We speculate on the future daily, making all kinds of predictions through our decisions, even if we don't actively think about where what we are doing is leading - every meal, cigarette, beer, gym session, handshake and emotional outburst has a cost of some kind associated with it that will affect our future life, even if the current cost isn't apparent.

We invest into our future actively and passively every moment of the day and we can't take every opportunity, we can't always make good decisions and, we are going to make some shockers - financially, socially, romantically, emotionally. Decisions that seem so correct today could be the most costly, and the opportunities that seemed so risky could prove themselves a no-brainer down the track.

Now, I have no idea about the future value of Bitcoin, Ethereum or Hive, but I speculate that they are going to go up, along with others, so I keep buying in, keep working and earning, keep supporting the industry where I can. I get the sense that while a lot of people say they are positive about the future of crypto being bright, most don't actually support their speculation, they don't put their skin in the game. From an investment perspective, speculation means investing into something with the hope of gain, but the potential for loss. Someone can speculate without skin in the game and protect themselves against the risk of loss, but what is there to gain?

If you maintained the same portfolio you have today - how long do you think it will be before it is worth enough to you?

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]