Coronavirus Comes to the Stock Market (Finally)
And so it begins...
Do you know where your risk management is?
With upsurges in coronavirus cases in South Korea, Japan, Iran, and Italy (those are certainly 3 distinctly different parts of the world by the way), the US stock market, in these last few minutes before the market opens, seems to be finally starting to price in the potential for a coronavirus global pandemic.
Is this Opportunity #1,033 in this epic 10+ year bull run to BTFD?
Or is this the beginning of the end?
Capitalism inevitably goes in cycles. It was only a matter of time before China saw its first recession since “opening up” in 1978. Who knows? With cities getting back to a “new normal” here this week, they may even somehow be able to salvage some positive GDP growth for the quarter with a positively bang-up March. Most likely, however, there's absolutely no way that non-Chinese countries can enact the same restrictive policies that have, so far at least, done a remarkable job at restricting the spread of the virus. The stock market is postulating it's own huge IF this morning:
WHAT IF THE WEST CAN'T HANDLE THIS?
It’s gonna be an interesting day.
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I can't believe it's taken this long. I've known for 3 weeks that the products I deal with from China aren't available and won't be for a while. This includes computers and all sorts of other stuff. There will be huge drops in trade of everything, there's no way this doesn't start affecting every part of every economy.
Yeah, it's pretty crazy, right? Market just opened and I get 33 "big price move down" alerts on my screen. At this point, I'm just watching out of curiosity. I've raised cash in all my accounts in the past month. Stocks still went up for God knows what reason. Started risk-proofing even the long term accounts on Friday... Shoulda done even more than what I did!
Still, this could get picked up by the TA bots as a BTFD situation, although you'd think that the the headline-reading bots would overwhelm them today. If it goes up from this crap opening, it'll just be a selling opportunity.
Just as an example of a non-essential, but kinda essential, what are people going to do when they look on Amazon and find there aren't any more Lenovo Laptops? I know that the main wholesale channels in the US are pretty much dry now. There will be stock at retail but not much. The same is happening for millions of items right now.
Food and drugs are the ones to worry about.
The supply chain shocks are going to be felt for a long time. On top of that, stocks have been driven by the credit impulse from China and buy backs for a decade or so.
I'm 50% convinced this will be the trigger for the next big crash.
Yeah, I think people need to prepare for that potentiality. It becomes more likely every day.
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This is definitely going to give a sharp jolt to economies around the world.
It will be interesting to see if manufacturing policies change after CV is under control and the dust has settled...
Hopefully it will accelerate the movement that was already underway to diversify manufacturing bases all over the world.
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