Bitcoin Falls While Others Soar

in LeoFinance2 months ago

History is riddled with end-of-the-world predictions. Somehow, the world keeps turning. The folly of forecasting is that, despite our best calculations, fate can forego our predictions. In the case of Bitcoin, nothing is further from the truth. While Bitcoin's price has fallen...for now, the performance of other cryptocurrencies continued to rise.

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Image by Prawny from Pixabay

Welcome fellow Hivians and Lions to our next discussion on finance. Today we'll be covering recent trends on Bitcoin. On January 8, 2021, at approximately 6:00 PST, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of about $42,000 (USD). As of January 17, 2021, at 8:00 PM PST, Bitcoin is currently valued at about $35,000 (USD).

Coinbase - Bitcoin (1/17/21-11:37 PM (PST))

I initially thought that if Bitcoin dropped in price, then all others would follow. Unsurprisingly, I was incorrect in my assessment. We'll discuss what other currencies have changed in the current opposite direction of Bitcoin. Additionally, I'd like to touch on the speculation mentioned in #LeoFinance, specifically the peak price people expect Bitcoin to reach in 2021.

Is Bitcoin in a Bubble?

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According to Investopedia, a bubble occurs when the value of a stock, or currency in our case, rises significantly above its intrinsic value. Economist David Rosenberg, speaking on Business Insider holds that many investors feel Bitcoin is in a bubble because they don't understand the supply inflow. Additionally, while there is a cap of 21 million, there's no definitive evidence that Bitcoin production will stop there once it's met. As of December 17, 2020, its market capitalization is $428 Billion.

It's more likely than not that people claim Bitcoin is within a speculative bubble. The "bubble" exists as a result of emotion rather than calculation or other technical analyses.

Does anyone know if some proofs have been presented in the market demonstrating an actual financial bubble?

Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Trends

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While Bitcoin's performance over the last week has dipped, other Defi currencies show marked improvement in their performance. Aava and Maker, as reported by Forbes, have risen significantly in the last week alone.

Polkadot, a cryptocurrency reported to be a rival to Ethereum, has had fantastic progress since August 2020. On August 21, 2020, at 5:20 PM (PST), it was trading for just under $3.00. It currently sits at approximately $17.82 on January 18, 2021, at 12:16 AM (PST). It seems like Polka has just entered a resistance band, so we'll have to see where the future takes us with this currency.

How High Will Bitcoin Get?

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I am not currently able to guess this on my own with any degree of accuracy. However, I can certainly report on it. The following predictions for Bitcoin's maximum trading price are listed below. The link for the magazine title I've referenced is also included.

I welcome any additional predictions, with references, to continue to tally them as the year progresses.

The Forbes Magazine article for November 19, 2020, was a surprising prediction. Billy Bambrough, the contributor to the article, wrote it based upon a leaked Citibank report. Unfortunately, these are the most singular forecasted Bitcoin prices I could find for 2021. Perhaps it is too early for anyone else to guess at its maximum trading price or range.

In Closing


Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Thank you all for joining me on this financial adventure. I welcome, as always, any comments or critiques below.

Your dreams may seem difficult to reach, but if you quit it becomes impossible.

MOTIVATION

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The crypto market is full of fluctuations and the current trend is making it harder to predict how the future will be but the most important thing is that all holders of Bitcoin and some other currencies are still smiling.

let's watch the trend and see how the slope of the graph will be

I agree with your assessment. While Bitcoins performance rises over time, short term trading remains volatile. I'd love to figure out how media reports affect the trends during shorter time periods.

BTC is in a bubble because it offers no real utility beyond what is offered by its competitors. The only thing it has over other cryptocurrencies is a the brand/popularity and more PoW miners (which could easily switch to a different coin such as BCH)

It took me a bit, but I think I understand your perspective. The brand popularity is certainly there as is the presence of other currencies. Despite its apparent popularity in trading, the purchasing power is still growing. You can buy things with it, but not as easily as conventional currency. It's in this regard that I feel it's in a bubble. If it can be applied as commonly as a conventional currency, then perhaps the price would be justified. Over time it just might be.

Time will tell how significant Bitcoin's volatility remains. The Federal Reserve in the U.S. seems to have few allowable actions to stabilize the economy. I feel that their available options, coupled with the economic issues brought about by COVID-19 leave a need that Bitcoin addresses.

I feel that their available options, coupled with the economic issues brought about by COVID-19 leave a need that Bitcoin addresses.

100% agreed. My only complain is that there are many other cryptocurrency that do the exact same thing much faster with less fees. https://www.dash.org and https://pivx.org are great examples for this. BTC can still gain against rampant money printing of central bankers. These better altcoins will eventually surpass BTC and might even push BTC out of Top 100 coins by the next decade or so.

It's almost like "survival of the fittest" applies to the digital world. Each iteration of a cryptocurrency evolves based upon the varying needs of the civilization. Hopefully, the coin that benefits society the greatest will prevail.

It reminds me of my readings on our pursuits of nuclear fuel for power production. Uranium was chosen over Thorium as the nuclear fuel of choice solely based on convenience. Scientists merely knew more about uranium than thorium. And they had a practical application of it in Japan.

The cites you referenced show currencies that seem infinitely easier to deal with than Bitcoin. I hope they do well.

The crytocurrency price varies all the time and so its considered as normal. Nowadays it is difficult to predict the future trend. Hope the price will go higher again.

Thanks for responding. I believe it will continue to go up again. What I'm concerned about are the doom-sayer predictions that say it's going to plummet back down to $1000. I'd love to see how they predict that specific value range.