HIVE's little secret: 8 days after new ATH there will always be a dump!
I was wondering when the price of HIVE gave us a new ATH ten days ago if we would see any kind of reaction 8 days later when people started selling. Why 8 days later? Because a whole bunch of people clicked their power down button on the day of the pump (or the following day) with the intention of selling some HIVE. One thing we can be sure of as a social media platform is that it won't take long for all of us to know our coin has hit a new ATH, so around 24h after the pump the majority will be aware and a large percentage of them will automatically hit their power down button. Hence the 8th day guarantee of a drop in price.
For any of my non-hive readers (like my mother!) please understand that our hive is locked into our wallets if we want to vote for other people and it takes 7 days after hitting the power down button to get your first payment of hive in order that you can sell some.
As you can see, on the 8th day after the ATH we saw a whopping 72% move on the daily chart here.
Take a look at the previous ATH on the 6th Oct (which by the way, we are currently using as support) and you will see that on the 9th day following the ATH we saw a 33% drop. Nine days on this occasion because people were not so on the ball at that time.
The higher the new ATH, the higher the probability of a pull-back around the 8th day.
So the first lesson to learn here is to not do what everyone else is doing!
Keep some HIVE on the side and don't be the person selling at the worst time on the 8th day. Personally I have been selling a little at each new ATH.
If you had been watching HIVE for some time, recognising this old channel we were stuck in for almost five months, you would have sold just after the ATH at the first sign of weakness (when we rejected from the 0.618 retracement) at around $3, ready to buy back at $1.32 four days later when we bounced off the top of the channel, selling it the following day for $2.04. That is a great week for any trader!
I did not take these trades because over the last week I have been clearing out my Binance account which has been used to sell STEEM & HIVE for the last five years. If you are not already aware, Binance are clamping down on KYC rules, locking account features for those who don't do it.
Unable to give them bank details (I don't have a bank), proof of address (my name is not on any bills), or my mobile number (I don't use a sim card in my mobile), I have no choice but to stop using them for HIVE trading.
Which is fine. Frankly they are no different to a bank now and I am happy to turn my back on them.
Does anyone have a recommendation for the best alternative trading platform for HIVE?
The next challenge for our beloved token (beyond staying above the old channel) will be breaching this new weekly level.
Get above that and we can look to the new monthly level here.
Get above that and obviously we will retest the ATH and see where we go from there.
But let's not get too excited quite yet. Something tells me BTC could be in for another drop, which will likely pull us down with it...
But do I think this bull market is over yet?
Not a chance.
I am bullish till we break this trendline and retest it to confirm it as resistance.
Love & Light everyone 🌱
I use Ionomy mainly due to no KYC. The liquidity is less by far but I like it way better than Binance. I refuse to KYC anywhere so am very limited on exchanges I can use.
Perhaps we will see a sharp rise in liquidity on Ionomy now that people like us are leaving Binance in search of alternatives? Appreciate the recommendation. Hope all is well with you.
It would be nice if more people used Ionomy and hopefully you are right. There aren't that many alternatives out there that I know of that are KYC free aside from some DEXs.
@timcliff has a great suggestion for us here. Am keen to retain all my old trading pairs and had no idea this was possible till now. So, I'm going to see how it is on Mandala...
You are right about the seven day cycle. This cycle was even more pronounced after the hardfork. The cycle creates a predictable drop in the price of HIVE.
The odd thing about predictable events in financial markets is that they work until there's enough money in the market anticipating the predictable event ... and then the predictable event stops working.
If you want to play this part of the market, I would actually follow the power downs. The Financial Reports by arcange summarizes the power downs. I guess the smart way to play the powerdown phenomena would be to subscribe to HiveSQL and look at the total power downs.
BTW, the price of the alt-coins are far more indicative of sentiment. People playing the market in Hive-Engine pull their funds from Hive-Engine and the price of the alt-coins plummet with each ATH.
I think the price of the hive-engine tokens plummets each time Hive spikes because those token prices are denominated in Hive. It's lke when the USDollar index spikes, and gold appears to drop suddenly because it's priced in USDollars.
How right you are. I have seen evidence of this over the last year.
Great call to check for total power downs. This would certainly help confirm ones suspicions in advance of the selling day. Hadn't heard of HiveSQL till now...
I've just started using Ionomy.
Having now spotted @timcliff's message at the top I am going to give Mandala a try...
I've noticed this effect as well, usually exactly 7 days (168 hours) from a spike up. Any move up will be noticed immediately (as it happens) by investors, who will begin their power down within seconds of a price level being reached (say $3). And they know exactly when those tokens will be liquid and available to sell. First out sells at the highest price, second out gets the next best price, and so on. Thus the long downward slide we see after sudden spikes up.
I hate this new "KYC" thing. Basically it's code for "we're regulated and controlled and your privacy isn't important". People get into crypto (over fiat) for 2 reasons. One is privacy, and two is decentralization. Crypto isn't crypto without those. So if you have to give those up to trade your crypto, what's the point?
Good on you for pulling out when they went bad. If enough of us do that, there will have to be services for us. If most of us cave and use the nonprivate centralized system laid out for us, the few with principles will be scrambling in the shadows. People should take a stand while they still can.
I don't feel like there's much incentive to stay powered up here. I've been doing it for years, never taking anything out, but I find that mostly benefits other people, rather than myself. I mean, we're "allowed" a bit of self voting, but for the most part, we're meant to dish the benefits of powering up out to others.
And as I've seen recently, unless you're ahead of the pack, you might as well not power down! Especially if you're like me, not sure what to do once the power down happens. What I need to do is set something up so I'm able to move that HIVE at a moment's notice. Then when I need to do it, I'm ready to go.
And yeah, why stay powered up? Perhaps that's what is wrong with this platform. No/little incentive to power up! Which means low investment in the token. Which means small payouts. Which means content creators don't get paid. Which means they're less inclined to bother. Which means there's not much to read or watch. Which means nobody visits.
What would reverse all that? I don't know. A whole bunch of people powering up, and staying that way? But with no/little incentive to do so....
shrug
There is nothing unusual about seeing a big drawn out retracement after such a huge pump. But at least we still have the chance to increase our holdings on the way down, using the 7 day cycle theory. And as @yintercept pointed out, checking the active power downs would confirm the coming dump.
Not sure I really had a choice! But it did feel good to leave them with my account on zero :)
I took a look at your other post and wanted to know what is your evidence for this statement?
As you pointed out, looking at the monthly chart tells a very different story to the daily! And from my perspective we are still in a bull market until the monthly chart tells us we are not. This drop before xmas is a trap to get everyone to sell before we pump beyond the next level. This is what I am personally dreaming of anyway!
So, my advice is hold on to your hive, but always keep some liquid to beat the crowd on selling day. I think it is a good idea to take profits on the way up. Like I said, I aim to sell a little at each new ATH (or as close to that as I can get!) and put it into other assets. No one ever went broke taking profits ;)
It feels good to reward other people no? And no one cares if you vote for yourself on each post. You can be sure I do it! Even @timcliff is giving us in this post a great example of self-voting with a purpose. Which is totally acceptable. If a person believes themselves to hold a valuable comment then why not?
We power up because if we don't the platform fails to function. Though I suppose the main motivation from a newcomer's perspective is the possibility of curation rewards which obviously grows with the amount of powered up hive they hold. If one uses an autovoter cleverly, one can have a decent passive income. Though one will make more as a curator if they don't use the autovoter and actually scan the airwaves each day. To me this seems like a great motivation to buy & power up hive with the intention of hanging out here indefinitely. The only downside I still see for a newcomer is that all of this is complicated and takes months to figure out. And I think we must lose a lot of people before they understand the full scope of financial benefits around here.
I'd suggest switching to Mandala. They run on Binance Cloud, so you get access to the same trading pairs, order books, and liquidity. They don't have any KYC requirements though. It is basically like trading on Binance, except it is not Binance - if that makes sense :)
Here is a referral link to get 5% off your trading fees:
https://trade.mandala.exchange/account/signup?ref=957Z23J3
Also here is an article with more information:
https://peakd.com/binance/@timcliff/why-users-are-using-mandala-exchange-to-trade-on-binance-with-lower-fees-no-kyc-up-to-2-btc-daily-additional-trading-pairs-and
(self upvoted for visability)
Legend! I wonder why coinmarketcap list it as only being moderate confidence? Who cares! This looks perfect. Thank you for that. Will be sure to use your link when signing up. Checking your article now...
The confidence is low for a few reasons. It is a newer exchange (about a year old) and their volume is currently being reported incorrectly because CMC is not separating out the Mandala volume from the Binance volume (since Binance Cloud and Binance share the same orders). CMC is working on a fix for the reporting side which will likely increase the confidence score after they start showing the right numbers.
What on earth are you doing awake at this time? Aren't u in the UK?
Appreciate your swift response.
No, I'm in central time :)
Thanks for this very informative post Sam.
No worries bro. I suspect as time goes on I will get more and more into trading ideas and no doubt share a few more here...