Hive Trends: Turning the corner? LooooL

in LeoFinance3 months ago

Just like happiness, hive moon tends to be 'just around the corner'

Rat Race (live more!)

But we we maybe on the verge of breaking out the box?

Maybe, but then again maybe not.

If we review three key metrics at the end of this month and compare them to last month, the progress picture is mixed:

  • Number of accounts transacting is up, slightly.
  • All the newly minted Hive from last month remains liquid, in the form of HBDs
  • The distribution of powered up Hive across accounts remains broadly the same.

I take the stats below from the most excellent @penguinpablo and @arcange, both are worth a follow to keep up to date with key Hive metrics...

Number of accounts transacting are increasing

There is a definite uptrend in the number of accounts transacting on a daily and weekly basis, if we take the trend from that dip in early October.

We are up to 10500 daily accounts transacting compared to only 9500 shortly after the 'October crash', 3/5ths of the way along the chart below.

accountst.png

(I'm guessing that dip was a DAPP either shutting down or changing so that users had to re-authorise it and many never did).

The proportion of Vested Hive has decreased relative to the virtual supply

MonthHIVE virtual supplyVested HIVENon Vested Hive
Jan404,238,927 HIVE143,486,782 HP240,182,782
Feb415,174,027142,663,028 HP240,027,467 HIVE

And there are almost another half a million HBDs floating about this month compared to last month.

Not so good - awash with HBDs.

The distribution of Hive Power has remained broadly similar

I use the without delegation stats below. @arcange also produces the with 'delegation' distribution, but delegation is just 'patronage', not ownership, so I prefer to look at the 'owned' weightings, I think they're a more valid measurement of power distribution, which is what I'm interested in.

MVEST.png


Level% total MVESTS end Jan% of total MVESTS end Feb
Whales39.3839.19
Orcas27.4827.74
Dolphins18.0618.09
Minnows9.879.77
Redfish5.215.22}

Final Thoughts - Turning the corner

Na, looks to me like it's still a case of HBD money printer going bbbbbrrrrrrrrrr while the rate of increase in active users isn't sufficient to create enough buying pressure to soak up the print rate.

The only mystery is where the recent Hive price pump came from? I can't see any basis for it in these stats?

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The price move, don't hit me, was purely due to chart technicals. We have turned the corner!

Well crazier things have happened!

The assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand for example, and then everyone in Europe believing that was actually the cause of World War One.

They happen all the time! For example, I'm in bed before 11 and won't be refreshing my pf again today!

Thats what i figured. I think after this bull run where ever it takes us the bottom will be 30 cents so thats good news at least. At 30 cents im comfortable but id like to see the fundamentals start to look better. We need more power ups and users. Leo is hopefully going to help as well as all the other developments. Defi on HE could really be a game changer.

Yes, things have picked up since Leo started trying to keep up with the space - wleo was the first move into defi, but I'm hopeful that bleo could really bring some eyes to hive. Investors are key I think and this latest update could really hit the spot.

According to their stats a lot of new accounts are being created, but most are not doing anything. Are people just storing them up? We need more people being active and powering up, but the numbers of the bigger accounts are trending downwards. I hope the price increase will encourage more activity, but I appreciate some need to take money out.

I think that's what's happening - people just storing them.

Most of that activity is Splinterlands too!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

I know a certain abuser collects accounts, but he's not doing much with them. Others may be trying to nab good names. We need more real people. @splinterlands should encourage people to be social outside the game. They could be earning from posts about it.

Recent pumps seems to be happening only during weekends. Taking into account that biggest exchanges, in terms of volume, are in South Korea, and that we've seen a similar trend with Steem, a few years ago, I can think of something: it might be the price increase is purely pump and dump from individual investors / groups, who are mostly synchronizing during weekends. I remember one time the SBD was around $13, and the biggest volume came from the same area, during similar bull trends. But it's just speculation, obviously.

What we all seem to agree on, is that this isn't (yet) justified by fundamentals.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

I still have faith in Hive's fundamentals - I just don't get why the price is so stagnant.

Interesting theory on the pump and dump, I certainly wouldn't discount it.

There's a fair bit of profit to be skimmed from riding those HBD/ Hive peaks and troughs, and if you combine that with Steem, even more I guess.

How do you calculate the HBD?
There is now Hive to HBD conversions in the DAO, from the Steemit Inc HIVE that was put there after the HF?

Around 40k HIVE per day....

I've just used Penguin Pablo's stats - with HB converted to Hive essentially.

Not sure did he added the dao conversions .... I mentioned to him a few days ago, he liked the idea ...

Just be awere that Hive is converted to HBD .... around 80M of it ... for a 5 years period

P.S.
https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@dalz/hive-to-hbd-conversions-or-yes-they-are-happening-in-the-dhf-dao-fund-or-lets-take-a-look

I'm aware of it, I'd just assumed Penguin had included it!

If it's not included then I guess there's lots more liquid floating about?

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

There are too many zigzags on the chart.
Does it means that the higher number of hive in circulation may likely affect the price?
Why am asking is because, we have stayed too long with the price of hive being below $0.35.

The zig zags are most likely due to variations in Splinterlands games being played - it maybe seasonal, it may be tournaments, not sure.

Okay. That's for sure. It could be permanent or temporary.
That's for the info.

We are right on the cusp of the corner. I can smell it. I can taste it. I can feel it in my water!!!

Nobody ever said it as well as Del-Boy!

Can you do a blog on how new hiveans should be using the platform to invest earnings? Is powering up the way to do it or are there alternatives? I’m new but been active from day 1 and keen to know what to do next. There are no manuals on how to do any of this stuff so I’m trying to glean as much as I can. Thanks for rot when posts!!! Always so helpful.

I think @leo.voter is the best return for delegation - 16% APY but paid in LEO.

I'll put something together it's the kind of thing I like doing from time to time.

You might like these

https://peakd.com/hive-174578/@revisesociology/what-are-the-different-ways-to-earn-hive

https://peakd.com/hive/@revisesociology/useful-links-for-exploring-the-hive-ecosystem

Also this...

https://peakd.com/hive-174578/@sidwrites/what-exactly-is-hive

I think @leo.voter is the best return for delegation - 16% APY but paid in LEO.

That was when Leo was at 30 cents, now the benefits of a delegation are around the 8%.

Are you sure? I thought it adjusted to take account of the LEO and Hive prices?

Thanks I’ll check those out!

It was Mars... he did it... 🤣

Someone told me to blame him... so I did. 😁

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