Hive Power Distribution Trends - A significant shift to greater inequality in September...
The distribution of Hive Power has become significantly more unequal over the last month, according to a comparison of @arcange's most excellent statistics, which show us distribution levels my MVEST and by number of accounts, and by all accounts and active accounts.
Below I look at trends in distribution from July 30th to August 30th based on all MVESTs and all users.
I'm using the 'without delegation' figures below - an innovation in @arcange's stats this month is to show the 'with delegation' figures too, but I can't compare that this month because there were no such stats for last month.
@arcange also produces the with 'delegation' distribution, but delegation is just 'patronage', not ownership, so I prefer to look at the 'owned' weightings, I think they're a more valid measurement of power distribution, which is what I'm interested in.
This analysis doesn't take account of the millions of liquid HIVE currently not staked in the DAO.
Trends in distribution by MVEST levels
30th August 2020 (without delegation)
30th September 2020 (without delegation)
| Level | % of total MVESTS 30th July | % of total MVESTS 30th August |
|---|---|---|
| Whales | 36.96 | 38.65 |
| Orcas | 28.51 | 27.57 |
| Dolphins | 19.18 | 18.77 |
| Minnows | 9.98 | 9.79 |
| Redfish | 5.37 | 5.28 |
This is truly bleak if you're a believer in radical decentralisation - a 1.5% increase in Whale shares in just one month, at the expense of all other levels.
Trends in distribution by number of accounts
30th August 2020 (without delegation)
30th September
| Level | No. of accounts 30th August | No. of accounts 30th September |
|---|---|---|
| Whales | 30 | 32 |
| Orcas | 287 | 291 |
| Dolphins | 1824 | 1819 |
| Minnows | 8843 | 8843 |
| Redfish | 1395927 | 1403786 |
Two more Whale accounts, 4 more Orca accounts, with Dolphins and Minnows holding steady.
Commentary/ Analysis
It seems that ordinary day to day users couldn't give a toss about buying into or holding Hive.
What seems to have been happening over September is a couple of accounts buying up lots of Hive and us having two new Whales added into the mix, or more likely one already existing whale powering up two of his Orca alts to whale status.
Either way, if you believe greater equality is key to true decentralisation Hive isn't moving in that direction, it hasn't been for months now, but this trend just accelerated RAPIDLY this month.
Could this be what's driving the price down in a vicious circle?
A few accounts get larger and larger, sucking up more and more of the rewards, leaving less and less for people in the middle, they sell and escape, the larger accounts buy up even more, while newbies look on in horror and don't join?
Maybe!
Of course a possible upside is that getting on for 40 Whale accounts isn't necessarily a bad thing when it comes to governance. Maybe.
And if Hive isn't supposed to be a social media platform anymore, maybe the lack of Power in the middle just doesn't matter?
The problem is I can't, hand on heart. look at a trend towards Hive moving to the Whales and market the platform on a decentralisation ticket, because that's not what's happening here ATM!
Notes...
I set @arcange as a beneficiary!
Sources:
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Who'd have thought that an oligarchical system would be wealth transfer upwards!
Imagine my shock!
Good post, though!
It isn't that surprising, you're right!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I dont find this as that bad. If you look at other DPoS chains, their distribution is even worse.
I would like for us to have at least 100 whales at some point.
The one single move that shifted things was the 2M HIVE buy from the encrypt.... dunno the exact name.
Also its open market, everyone can go and buy HIVE and make it more decentralized. We have this notion to give away HIVE for decentralization, but if people buy HIVE, that is the much faster way to do it :)
True, it's not as bad as other systems.
However, I do see Hive as a social media platform, which people are supposed to be using, so I'd hope there was wider distribution of ownership.
Ordinary users just aren't interested in buying it seems.
More whales aren't necessarily a bad thing. I'm not convinced 2 more whale accounts means more Whales.
Same old downtrend from Steem, seems like the Fork was just a blip.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Does include the one account that went straight to whale by buying a couple of million HIVE? That would affect the distribution. There is also the Freedom account that has about 12 million, but delegates it all out.
Of course I have just joined the orcas and it looks like you will too. Some of us are powering up and I keep encouraging people to do so. I found at least one orca who has done nothing since the Hive fork, but then he told me he was not made welcome. It's a shame his stake is not used.
It's an imperfect system and I just try to make the best of it.
That's all we can do - make the best of it!
!ENGAGE 20
ENGAGEtokens.There needs to be further development on uses for hive power besides curation and reward, I'm not talking protocol changes either I'm talking apps taking into account hive power for other uses like games could use total hive power for some sort of reward in game to incentives people to power up.
Yes, more integration like that would be a great idea!
!ENGAGE 20
ENGAGEtokens.It took me almost a week to buy 30k so far on Bittrex. There doesn't seem to be much, if any sell pressure there. Stagnant? Idk. Sold 250k LBRY today to buy more. The sell took about half an hour.
Posted using Dapplr
Well I'd be happy to be proved wrong! Mind you Bittrex is a small exchange compared to Binance
on the other hand this might be a good sign. We are always saying we need investors and we need bigger players. This might just be 2 new players coming in. And at least this is situated in accounts and not on the liquid market, making the market stronger. This is also not a typical month, the trend has been the other way for a lot longer.
2 whales the end does not make...
Yes fair point, I'm not too down on the place!
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