Hive inequality trends June to July 2020: Hive becoming more unequal

in LeoFinance2 months ago

The distribution of Hive Power has become slightly more unequal over the last month, according to a comparison of @arcange's most excellent statistics, which show us distribution levels my MVEST and by number of accounts, and by all accounts and active accounts.

Below I look at trends in distribution from June 30th 2020 to July 30th, based on all MVESTs and all users.

I'm using the 'without delegation' figures below - an innovation in @arcange's stats this month is to show the 'with delegation' figures too, but I can't compare that this month because there were no such stats for last month.

In any case, 'delegation' is just 'patronage', not ownership, so I'll probably stick with the 'owned' weightings, I think they're a more valid measurement of power distribution, which is what I'm interested in.

This analysis doesn't take account of the millions of liquid HIVE currently not staked in the DAO.

I also noticed he's swapped his colours around too!

Trends in distribution by MVEST levels

30th June 2020


Mvests.png

30th July 2020 (without delegation)


HP without delegation.png

Level% of total MVESTS 30th June% of total MVESTS 30th July
Whales36.2436.8
Orcas29.2128.23
Dolphins19.219.1
Minnows10.019.93
Redfish5.335.33

It's pretty much all 'Whale gain' at the expense of Orcas.

My hypothesis is that now the Steem PDs are done, and no one external to the system interested in buying in, at least not significantly, this is just the way it goes with curation returns accumulating disproportionately to Whales - they gain more and Hive Power gets sucked upwards.

I believe that's the point of the systems design.

Trends in distribution by number of accounts

30th June 2020


accounts.png

30th July 2020 (without delegation)


accounts wout delegation.png


LevelNo. of accounts 1st MayNo. of accounts 31st May
Whales3131
Orcas302290
Dolphins18591831
Minnows89548865
Redfish138446931390458

Quite a significant decline of the middle ranks.

Commentary/ Analysis


Combined with @penguinpablo's stats which show a stagnation in terms of activity and steady drift of Hive to the exchanges, these stats suggest that everyday people just aren't 'buying into Hive'.

If you believe the success of Hive depends on mass adoption, and millions of people buying in, the stats suggest we are heading in opposite direction.

Of course there are many more more metrics we can use to judge the success of Hive, but if equality of distribution of owned Hive Power is one of them, we're failing in the mid summer of 2020.

Final thoughts


Next month I will compare the 'with delegation' and 'without delegation' stats, as I think there is some validity in doing that, but I'm still convinced looking at 'owned' HP is the more valid way of measuring Power trends.

Delegation can be cut in a week, after all.

Finally, I'm not sure how much such broad bins tell us - this could just be a couple of people going from 450K Hive to 500K Hive - not that significant!

I finally remembered to set @arcange as a beneficiary!

Sources:

June 30th statistics

July 30th statistics.

Posted Using LeoFinance

Posted Using LeoFinance

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There are factors not discussed a lot except in general terms, however once folks begin poking their way around here they either notice things not adding up and not understand why, or they do understand. Neither of which promotes mass adoption.

The first thing I realized is the math of the inflation doesn't entice mass adoption. I remember the dismay I had when I first joined reading the charges against many of reward pool rape, even when they were using their own stake to upvote their posts. I was confused at first, wondering why a person couldn't use their own stake as they saw fit. Or in other cases, high stake holders would vote posts up that would cause anger in others over the size of the reward pull on the pool. Both scenarios leading to others of high stake downvoting the rewards to decrease that pull.

I always read it was the fault of the greedy stakeholder or the post was being rewarded to high, or a disagreement on the topic usually (not talking of the plagiarism). At no time was the math involved in the reward pool ever mentioned as the culprit, never mentioned it couldn't accommodate such large pulls without quickly diminishing others share. Seems pretty easy to understand, despite these omissions that if the reward math was really capable of allocating decent rewards to all none of this would be an issue.

This was further demonstrated to me by many I've seen who come with large followings who get downvoted heavily by a select few whales. Often being called the most obscene while they are downvoted. There is a push by a few in the upper echelon to ensure no one with a large following settles in, builds a foundation and pushes to have their followers aid in mass adoption. I suspect this is because these few upper echelon know all to well that the math is not conducive to mass adoption lest everyone get crumbs (the masses who come do actually get crumbs).

Then we see the push to reward in alternate made coins on Steemengine, a further push to obfuscate the fact the reward pool in and of itself is not capable of a mass adoption that would be lucrative to those of large followings. I know I read a lot about how much is Fakebook paying, but that argument doesn't apply other than as a mind game since the presentation has always been come here and earn.

All in all, in its current state relying almost solely on rewards for social posting, this system is not conducive to a mass adoption and as people come and don't produce any significant results they will not buy into the talking points that defy what they witness as their experience here. Most certainly won't invest, as all the indications for most is it just doesn't make sense, especially if they were sold the bill of goods on coming here to earn. I say this as someone who has invested a little (which is more than most) and can see firsthand that money would have earned far more elsewhere, as well as my time. I'm still here although my participation is fluid, but moresso from connections I made than any expectancy of making money. In two and a half years I've realized perhaps 500.00 from rewards, and given taxes and fees to cash out (not even sure how to cash out) that's really maybe a couple hundred. And from what I've seen, I've been very blessed here compared to most.

In the end, for there to be mass adoption a realistic view of the reward pool adopted into the narrative will have to take place for there to be any mass adoption. As well as a stop to those with followers being chased off by a select few.

I hear what you're saying - I think the Wolfe's latest proposal about an individual reward pool is the epitomy of what you say.

I think what we'ere seeing is the masses being rational - however, there are plenty of greedy, stupid and lazy people out there - hence why I think Hive has a future, in economic terms,

The underlying blockchain fundamentals are sound I think, just the economics are shite!

I find the the drop in dophins to be quite troubling. CoinGeck tells me that the price of HIVE is about $0.2222 . The price of 5000 HIVE is $1,111.00. Seeing the number of dolphins drop when the price of becoming a dolphin is just a grand is quite troubling.

Much as I love the stats by @arcange , the information I want to see is trends. I would love to see the data over a longer period of time. I also would love to see how the price of HIVE affects the distribution of accounts.

It would be really interesting to get those longer term trends yes! I agree.

Although whether you can compare Hive and Steem in any meaningful way is debatable, and TBH since the PDs, we've only really got a month of data for hive!

Thanks for your post. I love to learn, so I read this publication plan. I don't understand a lot, but I have a desire to read and look for answers. I wish you success.

I wish we could see actual growth, but it seems the lure of free money is still not enough :) Hive will never be perfect, but it's better than most alternatives. Despite what @practicalthought says we need influencers to come here or the Hive price will continue to stagnate. The whales will lose out if they chase them away. A big slice of fuck all is still fuck all.

Succinctly put! I don't agree with chasing away influencers either. My worry is that there are those at the top who don't need the fiat money, maybe they'd rather see a low price and maintain their influence?

Well, there's at least one person, I think it's obvious who I'm talking about!

I am sure some whales just enjoy the power they wield here. This is why we need more big accounts to balance things out. Those whales who want to see growth need to help out.

Unfortunately I don't think we're heading that way - I can't remember who said it, but we have two Big Kahunas here - who have got bigger, not smaller - I'm happy enough that at least blocktrades seems like a reasonable individual, Freedom seems reasonable, but I've no idea who Freedom is.

After those two, you need quite a gaggle of Whales to compete with their power!

We have some big orcas who troll the place too. Some of them are not making much as their posts get downvoted. We have lost a fair few big accounts since the fork and need to recover some ground. My @tenkminnows project also has a lot of work to do.

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To support your work, I also upvoted your post!

Do not miss the last post from @hivebuzz:

Hive Power Up Day - Let's grow together!
The HiveBuzz Shop - New Items and Designs

I don't see a real search for mass adoption, what I see is the circlejerking of always keeping on, when Hive came out there was (apparently) some kind of enthusiasm for the development of this chain that IMO is loosing track. And I get it mass adoption would mean the loosing of power of some whales as they would see diluted their control over this blockchain.

Development is quite slow! There certainly isn't much to talk about, what with sideways price action. Or is that declining price action now, relative to BTC at least!

Can you reproduce this report?
Or, this one?

I can't myself but I'm sure @arcange could, or maybe @dalz ?

Ok, thanks, I will ask them.