Bitcoin CME gap at 23k. Will we fill it?
The Gap
The CME chart has a rather large gap down at 23k as you can see in the chart above in the golden box.
Do you think we have a gap fill coming this week? Over the history of BTC the gaps tend to fill something like 95% of the time.
If the 30k support gets broken, I'm assuming we will fill it.
If so, I would expect it to get bought up immediately and hopefully put us back on the upward trajectory and eventually to new ATHs.
Overall, this retrace is healthy. I see a lot of people on social media freaking out about it. "OMG we dorpped 20%!" "BTC is dead" etc.
I don't know where people get the idea the an asset never corrects and just goes up infinitely. But, judging by social media apparently lots of people have that assumption lol.
BTC 4hr Spot Chart
If we take a look at the 4hr spot chart, we can see that we recently had a bounce off of the support at ~$30k.
Personally, I'm only expecting a bounce here and then more continuation to the downside.
If the 30k breaks, like I said before, I am expecting that gap at $23k to fill.
But, it's also possible that the price could rebound right where we're at. There isn't a law on gap fills and it's very possible $30k could be the bottom of this correction.
What are your thoughts?
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https://twitter.com/nolyoi/status/1348718639533461505
23K $ is an important level. I have some buy-limit orders at approximately $23,7 K.
However, CME in my view is insignificant for the Cryptocurrency Market. Moreover, its contracts are cash-settled. Hence, it has 0 effect on the prices of cryptocurrencies.
Probably, you live in the USA. That's why you know CME. Most of the cryptocurrency users all over the world even don't know what CME is.
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I find the CME charts to be better for charting tbh. I try to avoid weekends because of it.
If I see a pattern on CME and spot exchanges the likelihood of it playing out seems to be a lot higher. Or if I see a pattern on spot and not on CME they seem to play out a lot less.
Not sure why. Maybe it has something to do with it being mostly industry traders that trade on CME.
I also wouldnt say it has 0 effect on price. It's not a coincidence that these gaps fill 95% of the time and there's tons of traders and influencers that give weight to CME charts, especially it's gaps.
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Interesting article on the subject.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/closing-the-gap-the-effect-of-cme-bitcoin-futures-on-bitcoin-price
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@nolyoi, keep in mind, that these gaps only exists on the charts of CME.
As a trader/ investor I will never use any CME products. Even if it seems that you can make some profit from arbitrage trading. Because for me CME is not a reliable place. Oh, yeah, some big institutional gamblers/ and price manipulators in the USA do like it. These financial parasites like places like CME, because actually they control these platforms and they use such platforms to squeeze the money of the small investors. But, crypto is the tool that will dismantle and make obsolete such places.
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I'd never use any of their products either myself. But that doesn't mean their data can't be helpful in making money.
And trading is a zero sum game. You or me winning money is taking it from someone else. You can't be too mad at the big people doing it. Happens in stocks, crypto, forex, everywhere.
Now the banks and govt money printers, that's who I don't like.
@nolyoi , I've been in the financial markets since 2006. I started to work in a hedge fund as a stock market analyst. I was also very active in the forex market till January 2020. Yes, I don't like many of the big 'players' because they are actually financial gangsters. Let me give you an example as a FX trader. Imagine I am good enough and I always make a profit in the long-term. Then the broker starts to apply big slippage to my trading positions in order to take my profit. Ok! That's really very mean! This is for example why there might be 'gaps' in the price charts of crypto in CME. Crypto charts (BTC, ETH, etc.) have no gaps. This is a transparent and fair market. This is not a stock/fx market where big players can manipulate charts (usually, over the weekend when the market is closed for the retails traders/investors). Anyway. Later, when I figure out how to overcome slippage if I become profitable again, the FX broker starts to apply some crazy fees to my account. So, yeah, most of those big 'players' in the traditional financial markets are (in my view) just financial gangsters. It is not fair play when trading against them. Even if you are a better economist they will always find a way to take their money back. That's awhy I am really happy that crypto is going to erase them.