The Degen Daytrading Diaries: Bitcoin Life in the Phase D Wyckoff Dist at Options Expiry
Happy Friday Bitcoin Options Market with approximately $1 Billion in Options expire today, so it should be a bumpy ride.
Today, the TA analysis will be confined to both the Intradays (4H and 15M). With that, let’s get to the TA…
The 15M Intraday Chart
Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation recently dropped beneath the key support line turned resistance at $9,240.00 and appears to be exhausting demand towards the lower end of support, which is expected in Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution.
A key point to keep an eye on with the 15M Intraday, is the formation is beginning to follow a typical Wyckoff Accumulation pattern (Shakeout and Spring are both appearing in this consolidation). The pattern appears set to breach the trendline resistance, suggesting a flip to bullish bias on the 15M Intraday. Given today is Options Expiry Day, and the amount outstanding is material ($1 Billion), it would be wise to keep a very close eye on this formation in the event something out of the ordinary happens (such as un Upward Thrust After Distribution in Phase D). An Upthrust above $9,240 which breaks $9,320.00 here would be a red flag and cause for concern.
I would expect another strong move or cluster of moves to push PA down into the $8,900.00 price region in the near future to exhaust all remaining demand in that region, test/break the lower end of support at $8,900.00, and transition into Phase E for a Selling Climax (SC).
The 4H Intraday Chart
Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the upper end of PA has shifted down from the $9,320.00 price handle to the $9,240 price handle, and the lower end of PA has been tracking the Bearish Line of Support formed from an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle.
The PA suggests the formation has finished exhausting demand at the $9,300.00 price handle. It exited on a PA drop through the Bearish Line of Support which printed a Sign of Weakness (SOW) at the $9,080.00 price handle and has remained constrained below the key line of support turned resistance at the $9,240.00 price handle.
Much like my earlier analysis in the $9,600 region and the $9,300 region, I would expect the formation to print another green candle (potentially two), as it moves downward in the support zone before breaking support at the $8,900.00 price handle and moving into Phase E and a final Selling Climax (SC).
Summary/My Trade Plan
Short positions should have been taken within the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 zone, the $9,400.00 - $9,300.00 zone, and the $9,300.00 - $9,200.00 zone. Given the appearance of an accumulation pattern in the $9,240.00 – $9,100.00 with potential to break trend line resistance on the 15M Intraday looming, it suggests adding more to short positions at this time is unwise – better to allow this formation to resolve first before seeking to add more short positions or ride with the current positions held.
The Target Price for the Selling Climax (SC) would be $8,020.00 (additional cause has been added to the formation during this Wyckoff Phase D). Covering short positions should begin at or near the $8,300.00 price handle, layer covers through $8,020.00, and reserve approximately 15% for a potential blow off bottom/bottom sell.
Stops currently at the $9,470.00 price handle should be shifted downward to the $9,365.00 price handle. The split should be a 50% of the total position at $9,470.00 and 50% of the total position at $9,365.00 to safeguard against an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which could fall back into the trade range. While uncharacteristic for Phase D, given the appearance of an accumulation on the 15M Intraday and Options Expiration today, prudence is wise here.
At the Selling Climax (SC), a scalp long should present itself off the Automatic Reaction (AR) from the Selling Climax (SC) once the Low Pole Reversal Confirms – potentially somewhere in the $7,900 - $7,700 region. This would also be an excellent place for long term cold storage buys. Once the Automatic Reaction (AR) is exhausted, sell off any scalp long buys immediately and wait for the formation to move into the conclusion of Wyckoff Phase B/start of Wyckoff Phase C to take a position again.
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.
You can follow me and keep up to date on Tradingview as well. I trade under the handle FOFAgent1 at tradingview.com
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