Bitcoin Enters a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation

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(Edited)

Happy Saturday. My price target for that most recent breakdown missed the bottom by $20 (too low), so I have some mixed feelings on that one. However, I do hope everyone found an entry into a short position.

This climactic breakdown to $9,060 during the Phase E Wyckoff Distribution exhausted the full cause built into the formation during the last distribution cycle. At conclusion, the formation moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation range to build cause again and determine the upcoming direction.

The 15M Intraday Chart

Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation immediately following the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,060.00. The Selling Climax (SC) at $9,060.00 established the lower end of the support range. The PA then turned upward on the Automatic Reaction (AR) to the $9,450.00 price handle, establishing both resistance and the preliminary trade range.

After establishing the prelim trade range, the PA moved downward towards support for a Secondary Test (ST) of support to the $9,300 handle, before moving upward towards resistance for a Secondary Test (ST) to the price handle of $9,480 to complete Phase A of Wyckoff Accumulation. The formation has now moved into a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation.

Some items of note with the current formation: (i) the current PA remains constrained below the resistance line established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $9,960.00 price handle suggesting a bearish bias, and (ii) the Secondary Test (ST) of resistance topped out at $9,480.00 - below the Automatic Reaction (AR) price handle of $9,540 also suggesting weak demand at this price range and bearish bias.

The 4H Intraday Chart

Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has mirrored the PA on the 15 Minute with respect to support, resistance and trade ranges.

Two key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart (i) the PA following the Selling Climax has remained constrained below the resistance line established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle suggesting a bearish bias, and (ii) the Secondary Test (ST) of resistance topped out at $9,480.00 - below the Automatic Reaction (AR) price handle of $9,540 (mirroring the 15M Intraday activity) also suggesting weak demand at this price range and bearish bias.

The 1D Chart

Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains within Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. The PA of the formation has moved below the lower end of resistance towards the midpoint of the trading range and is currently pushing lower inside of a red daily candle.

Typically, after a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT), the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible and moving into Phase C.

In the current formation, a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) was printed at the $10,420 price handle. Since then, the PA has gradually pulled back to the $9,060 price handle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term and move lower towards the bottom of the trade range to the $8,120.00 price handle (and potentially establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) before moving into Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Phase C is arguably the most volatile phase, which could propel the formation to higher highs on successive Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) before moving into the final distribution phases and pushing price down below the lower support handle at $8,120.00 in a bid to complete the cycle.

I would imagine in the near term, an Upward Thrust (UT) towards resistance should happen. A Bearish Triangle was recently invalidated on the 15M Intraday suggesting a move higher is in play in the near term.

Should the formation PA break resistance on a Sign of Strength (SOS) on a move above the $9,450 price handle and pull back into the resistance range without falling below the lower line of resistance at $9,480 (a Back-Up), this would suggest a bullish move higher could be in play in the near term before moving into a Wyckoff Distribution cycle. However, should an Upward Thrust fall back into the trade range, we would have to wait until the formation Jumps the Creek into Phase C (or sells off) to determine the direction of the next move.

Always remember this is not trading advice.

Outside of that, Happy Trading.


You can follow me and keep up to date on Tradingview as well. I trade under the handle FOFAgent1 at tradingview.com

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