Where does Bitcoin go from here?

in LeoFinancelast month

Bitcoin dropped to $30k, and recovered nicely, now what?

Last week bitcoin hit $42k and then shortly after dropped all the way down to $30k.

The drop was fast and if you blinked, you likely missed the bulk of it.

Just as quickly as it dropped though, it rebounded and pushed all the way back up near $40k.

Since that time, we have been consolidating between $30k-$40k, with that range getting tighter and tighter.

image.png

(Source: https://bloqport.substack.com/p/bitcoin-50k?r=3ixac&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter)

What comes next?

Well, if history is of any indication, a gain of at least 100% from those lows is probably what comes next.

From the highs to the lows, bitcoin fell by about 28%, which is more or less in the realm of what we saw around this time back in 2017.

Back in 2017, we saw 6 corrections of 29% or more, which is more or less what we just saw:

image.png

(Source: https://bloqport.substack.com/p/bitcoin-50k?r=3ixac&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter)

For some real apples to apples comparison, our halving this time around took place a couple months earlier than the one back in 2016, which means we are in roughly March of 2017 by comparison.

We can see that there was a large correction around this same time of about 38%.

Going off of that, one might think we have another leg down to get a little more than the 28% we saw already, but given that the majority of these dips only lasted 2-3 weeks, with every day that goes by without a dip, the next move is probably higher.

Plus when you factor in the types of hodlers this time around, IE large institutions with long time horizons, the corrections will likely be less severe than they were last time around.

Which means...

In my opinion, and based on past patterns, the next move is probably up.

Going off of the chart above, we can see that after every one of these large corrections, the price goes up by more than 100% every single time.

If that is indeed the case, then we should expect to see a rally to at least $60k over the coming weeks and months before another large correction.

The neat thing is that the gains tend get larger and larger after each correction as we move forward.

Never before was the age-old advice to BTD ever more spot on then with bitcoin during a bull market!

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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When multiple governments are imploding at the same time it's time to look past the charts...

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-01-17/explainer-italy-faces-a-political-crisis-amid-a-pandemic

 last month (edited)

All coincidentally involved in the alleged foreign vote flipping. 🤔

Great links!

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(To get this back in the original order you posted.) Edit: didn't work. You'll have to give it a little nudge yourself. Sorry about that.

Charts are simply a reflection of all the news and buyers/sellers reacting to said news. The charts never go out the window.

And very often they're a heads up on things. We see it all the time where people discover the "news" after the price event. On the other hand, it might be just as often that we see the storm clouds gathering on the horizon before price reacts. You know, the perfect storm that is visible to everyone but nobody sees? ;-)

This is what I'm watching on a technical level.



BTC-17012021.jpg

Successive breaks of the channel lines could lead to a consolidation pattern. But, if we're going to continue straight up, then those lines, the lower line in particular, would need to hold, I would think. We could always get a break lower like we see on the chart as already having happened once . . . thing is, those kinds of "repeats" are not all that common. In any event, the channel must be respected in the intermediate term (a short term break that quickly recovers stays within that context), otherwise I'd be looking for sideways consolidation as people step back to wait and see what happens.

I pray for a BTC consolidation period of 2 weeks: https://leofinance.io/@cryptovios/where-are-we-heading-with-btc

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No limits.

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I expected to see a bit of a run up yesterday like we saw last weekend, but I didn't take into account that today is MLK day. I always forget about everything being shut down on that day. Hopefully tomorrow we start to see some positive movement and a testing of that 40k mark again.

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so, 60ish april - may
back down to 40
slow in summer
80 august - september
back down
120 December

That would be the pattern if you really break it down... Though keep in mind after some of these dips, the price rallied more than 100%...