RE: "New" $50k Price Target
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The biggest reason why I don't think it will happen is due to where we are in the cycle. The fractal you are pointing to happened after bitcoin had already made new all time highs and was getting near the blow off top portion of the cycle. We aren't really near that portion of the cycle just yet.
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True but there are also a lot of similarities with the Summer 2019 bull run which popped up from pure speculation (Bakkt) and because we hadn't had a bull run in 18 months.... once again we are in that pocket where we haven't had a bull run in 18 months... and we are only trading 50% higher than the doubling curve during a month in which the market doesn't usually peak.
All the history points to the idea that even if we don't spike up from here, December and January can usually keep the plateau going before crashing. Going bearish now just doesn't make sense on a lot of levels. I'm not even going to think about taking gains for another 2 weeks minimum.
For sure. Saying bitcoin isn't likely to hit $50k within a few weeks isn't bearish :) I'm just saying that the past halving patterns don't really point to that happening within this time frame.
They certainly do not. Unfortunately we have no data if we are looking at economic crisis' of the past, because Bitcoin was born out of the last one. Very possible that will trump the 4 year cycle.