On average, Bitcoin surges 153% after correcting by 30% during the last Bull Market

in LeoFinancelast month

Bitcoin just dropped by more than 30%, now what?

With bitcoin trading around $30k, some are starting to wonder if the bull market is already over...

My response to that is, if bitcoin continues to follow previous bull market patterns, then it's not over by a long shot!

And so far bitcoin hasn't done anything that leads me to believe it will stop following these patterns as it has followed them almost to a "T", post halving to date.

So, with bitcoin now falling roughly 31%, here's what is likely to come next...

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(Source:

1352285580982427648/photo/1) twitter metadata:QlRDX0FyY2hpdmV8fGh0dHBzOi8vdHdpdHRlci5jb20vQlRDX0FyY2hpdmUvc3RhdHVzLzEzNTIyODU1ODA5ODI0Mjc2NDgvcGhvdG8vMSl8 ~~~

In layman's terms, bitcoin should rally north of 100% from the lows after a correction of roughly 30%.

On average, after a correction of roughly 30% back in the 2017 bull market, bitcoin saw returns of 153%.

If history continues to repeat, that means we would see bitcoin peak around $75k after bottoming around $30k before the next major correction.

Will history continue to repeat?

That is the $64k, or should I say, the $75k dollar question!

As I mentioned above, bitcoin has continued to track past patterns almost exactly, which leads me to believe it will continue to do so.

The percentage returns may change this time around, but the overall theme implies that after this 30% correction, bitcoin will go on to make a higher high possibly in the realm of 100% higher than the lows of this move.

An easier way to see how closely bitcoin is following past patterns is to see how closely it continues to follow PlanB's stock to flow model:

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(Source:

1352280602721058819/photo/1) twitter metadata:MTAwdHJpbGxpb25VU0R8fGh0dHBzOi8vdHdpdHRlci5jb20vMTAwdHJpbGxpb25VU0Qvc3RhdHVzLzEzNTIyODA2MDI3MjEwNTg4MTkvcGhvdG8vMSl8 ~~~

I fully expect this time to be no different.

I was a buyer on the dip today, and I will be looking for roughly 100% gains from here over the coming weeks and months.

Time will tell if that is how it ultimately plays out, but history is on our side and I am going to keep siding with history until it stops working out.

As the saying goes "you ride her till she bucks ya, or you don't ride at all".

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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the timelines dont add up for me.
standard retraces take weeks or months to play out.
the ones we are seeing are 2 day flash crashes.
market is very unstable.

Are you sure BTC is done crashing? It may still take it some weeks to go down by $5k to $10k.

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Well just look at the chart at the top, from the highs to the lows it often took only a matter of a couple weeks (or days) on the majority of those corrections, which is more or less where we are now.

Past performance is somehow a poor predictor, especially when we talk about crypto. But as long as people are ready to spend hundreds of millions USD on BTC -- why would it fall?

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Past performance has been an extraordinarily good indicator of future price action in Bitcoin. Middle and small cap cryptos not so much. But Bitcoin has been amazingly regular. So regular that I would not personally bet against it.

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Yep, exactly. Well said.

I disagree tremendously. Bitcoin has repeated a very similar pattern to a T with regards to this bull market and past bull markets. Just look at the patterns. I mention them quite often in my posts.

I want to believe it will follow the same trend, but we are dealing with much different players this time. I think that makes it harder to predict perhaps. I think we have a pretty good idea of what will happen since institutions are usually pretty even keel, but then again... I don't expect we will hang around this price point too long.

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Like I said, I will keep playing the trends until they stop working. They haven't stopped yet.

Damn. Posts like this do really well in Facebook crypto groups, look (on peakd)how many views I got you 😈

How many views?

it says 100+ now, most of your recent posts got 10-20+ on peakd. I think your posts are fantastic for leaving around crypto social media, may keep doing it if you don't mind

I think the same as you, the patterns are the same so we can expect an ATH of 82K but then stay at 68K and so on until it finally exceeds 100K.

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That would be the trend yes.

There was a good bounce 28k, I want to see BTC going back to 20k-25k atleast, those key levels are very important in the long run, or possible it might just be dumped just like the 3k mark. But that really depends on the market, since there are already many big institutes accumulating BTC.

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Just dropping a comment right now to test the new lightning tech?

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I think that this is just a correction and there is the probability of BTC bouncing back. You nicely explained the chart and this correction. Do you think that BTC will move towards 50k price mark now or stay stable here for sometime ?

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Wouldn't mind a 150% gain... But also wouldn't mind the market waiting a year to do it so I can add more.

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Yea, I mean if it did wait a year to do it, the entire 4 year pattern/cycle would be broken.