Bitcoin's Relative Volatility looking like it did back in early 2013 and early 2017, just prior to massive Bull Markets

in LeoFinance2 months ago

Bitcoin is seeing yet another Indicator implying that Bitcoin is still early in its Bull Market Cycle

We saw a few days back how bitcoin was likely still in the early stages of its bull market based on its Thermocap multiple.

More on that can be seen here btw:

https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/historically-accurate-metric-indicating-bitcoin-likely-still-early-in-its-bull-market-cycle

For those wondering what the heck a thermocap multiple is and how it applies to bitcoin, but don't really want to dive in to that post above, I have a TLDR for you...

Bitcoin's thermocap multiple is currently around 20 while it climbed to at least 40 in every other major bull market peak going back to 2011, which implies that bitcoin still has a lot of run to room before it might be near a top during this cycle.

And now today, we have another metric/indicator telling us that we are likely still a ways off from topping out...

Enter Bitcoin's Relative Volatility Index...

Bitcoin's Relative Volatility Index has a very good track record of indicating when the market may be topping out, or at least getting near a top.

If we look at a chart of bitcoin's 90-day volatility relative to the S&P 500 260-day volatility, we can see that there definitely seems to be a correlation between bitcoin tops and its relative volatility spikes.

Check it out:

image.png

(Source:

1351775441888149504/photo/1) twitter metadata:RFRBUENBUHx8aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9EVEFQQ0FQL3N0YXR1cy8xMzUxNzc1NDQxODg4MTQ5NTA0L3Bob3RvLzEpfA== ~~~

Specifically, we can see that huge spikes were seen near/after the tops in 2011, 2013, 2014, and 2017.

Also, we can see extreme lows were evident at the beginning stages of those rallies, which are circled in the above chart.

What should we expect from here?

If history were to repeat, and so far there is nothing leading me to believe that it won't, then we are going to see a huge relative volatility spike as we get near a top.

Based on the chart above, we would are likely going to see the gains start to accelerate and relative volatility spike tremendously from here as move through the rest of this year.

For some context, the above chart implies that we are in Q1 of 2017 right now. Which means we likely have several more quarters of gains before we are anywhere near a top.

When you combine what this chart is showing, along with the thermocap multiple mentioned at the top, combined with all the other post halving patterns and stock to flow models, and there is a very good chance we are no where near a top.

Based on all those models, the top should happen somewhere between August and December of this year, and it should be several multiples of our all time highs seen a few weeks ago.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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I just read edicted's post and now this.
I'm looking forward to seeing who is right.

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Yea, very knowledgeable guy but his predictions are all over the place and change from day to day. I can't keep up with them all! :)

Thanks for sharing... I believe that Bitcoin can reach $ 50,000 by this year.

I do as well.

Thanks for reply with your opinion

We are definitely still in the bull cycle (for at least 1-2 years)! But a correction to 20-25k seems not too far fetched for the mid term:

https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-btc-correction-over

A correction to $20k would be bigger than any correction that happened in 2017 during the bull market cycle. I highly doubt we go much lower than $30k on a dip, maybe $27k, but that should pretty much be the line in the sand based on what we saw last time around.

Percentage wise that is correct. From a fractal point of view it would be unusual as the pattern would definitely suggest a deeper correction. We'll see soon enough!

It will be interesting to watch

I expect that there are going to be a lot of people trying to snatch up some more BTC with the drop to the 32k range we saw this morning. Likely by the time we hit 10 AM it should start to rise maybe. Hopefully anyway since I am not in the position to buy right now.

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I was one of those snatching up some more coins. :)

Of course you were! :)

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