Another chart indicating Bitcoin may peak north of $200k this year....

avatar

There have already been several indicators and past patterns pointing towards $200k+ this year, and now we just got another one...

The bullish signs just keep rolling in...

From the stock to flow model put out by PlanB, to the previous post halving rallies, to several other patterns and indicators all pointing towards prices north of $200k by the end of this year, we have a plethora of data pointing toward wildly higher bitcoin prices this year.

And now, we just got another one...

Based on data published by Glassnode, we are in the midst of a HODL flip. We are seeing a transition from the majority of bitcoin holders being long term holders to now seeing the majority being short term holders.

While this might sound bearish at first, it's the exact same thing we saw back in 2017.

Check it out:

image.png

(Source: https://twitter.com/Negentropic_/status/1361049437427089412/photo/1)

As you can see, we saw this flip happen back in 2017 and now we are seeing it happen again right now as new buyers are buying supply from older holders.

What can we learn from this?

While bitcoin moving from strong hands to potentially weak hands may not sound like a good thing on first glance, it's the exact same process we saw back in 2017.

The chart above shows the cross we are seeing right now happened around July/August back in 2017.

From there it took another 4/5 months for the price to peak.

But here's the really neat thing about that...

At the time the cross occured, the price of bitcoin was roughly $3k per coin, which means it rallied another 6-7x before ultimately topping out in December!

If we extrapolate that same type of pattern this time around, here's what could happen...

With a price north of $45k at the time of the cross, we would see a price in the range of roughly $250k-330k!

Not only that but it would happen roughly 4/5 months from now, which points to a top around June/July for this cycle.

Add it all up and we would be looking at a price north of $250k and it would it happen by July of this year!

That may sound crazy to some, in fact it sounds crazy to me as well, but if the past were to repeat in similar fashion, those are the numbers we would be looking at based on this pattern.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta



0
0
0.000
15 comments
avatar
(Edited)

it's gonna happen, but on a down side that would mean that we are already going to be in a long term bear market by the end of summer?

0
0
0.000
avatar
(Edited)

Yes, there is that as well... I actually think this bull market may peak sooner than people think. The bull market in 2013 peaked 12 months post halving, and the one in 2017 peaked 17 months post halving. We may not go all the way to 17 months this time around...

0
0
0.000
avatar

That would be really awesome if we were able to get to $200k by the end of the year. I am not sure I would be able to talk my relatives into holding on any longer if that were the case. I think they would be more than willing to take their money and run. I would probably hold onto mine and wait to see if it goes even higher. All of this is definitely encouraging!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

I don't think there's much question it will go higher. The real question is, how low will it go before it actually does go higher. I mean, if I could buy it at $15k right now I'd sell everything I own. :-) But buying it at $15k three years ago and watching it go to $3k was painful. I never sold and now it's more than 3x'd from there but...still not fun. This time around, if you could sell for $250k and buy it back at $150k that would be awesome. But if it goes to $400k and only pulls back to $300k you'll be hating yourself. Just so hard deal with all those emotions....

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

I am really happy with the small amount I picked up for around $3k about a year ago. That was a good move for me even though it was just a fraction. It sucks that I only ever have $50 or $100 here and there to invest.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

That's all it takes though. It's called "stacking satoshis". Personally, I think at some point Bitcoin will start being priced in Satoshis. 1 BTC = 100,000,000 satoshis. If and when the world ever goes on the "bitcoin standard" then things will probably eventually be priced in satoshis rather than a fraction of bitcoin. Again, if and when btc hits $1M US then 1 Satoshi = 1 US penny. In that realm, pricing things in satoshis wouldn't seem too far-fetched. If you own .01 BTC you actually will have 1,000,000 sats. My strategy is to just keep adding sats with the goal of moving the next biggest number. For example: turn .0001 into .001 into .01 into .1 into 1 BTC. It takes a while but it's fun seeing the number grow. Like I said, with minimal invested and minimal to invest, just focus on stacking sats.

0
0
0.000
avatar

Yep, exactly. The tough part is knowing when that peak will be. There are models predicting $100k, all the way up to $400k. If you sell it all at $100k and it goes to $400k, that is a pretty tough pill to swallow, and then you need a drop of 75% just to get back in where you sold...

0
0
0.000
avatar

Yes, that's why the way to do it is to probably have a certain amount that is HODL at all prices. Unless and until you have somewhere to put it, there's really nowhere else you can stash that money that's "safe". Even if you reach a level where you can cash out and live comfortably for the rest of your life, where are you going to put it? In gov't bonds? In real estate? Those face the same dilemma if the dollar collapses. You pretty much have to keep a good chunk in Bitcoin in case something like that happens. Despite it's incredible volatility, it truly is the "safest" place you can be.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Very well said. Michael Saylor said the same thing... So you made a million dollars, now what? You have a million dollar problem because you don't want to just keep it in cash which is going to lose 2% per year at the very least...

0
0
0.000
avatar

Yea that is always the difficult part, knowing when to sell. Sellers remorse is no fun, and it might even be worse than hodling through the dips. I think 10 years from now it will be higher than wherever it peaks during this cycle, so hodling is the right move in the long run. Though if you can sell near the end of this cycle and buy near the bottom of the next one you can greatly increase your holdings... Not near as easy to do as it sounds though.

0
0
0.000
avatar

Haha, I hear you. They got the BTC they do hold for free, so I have a feeling that they will be happy just to get any profit out of it. They have been waiting three years already :) Like we haven't been...

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

The stars are definitely aligning. Hard to imagine a run that huge, that fast but....stranger things have happened. Going to be a fun ride.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Agreed. The amount of money needed to push the price that high that fast is pretty staggering...

0
0
0.000
avatar
(Edited)

Bitcoin is going to 280k this cycle IMO, November 2021. I look foward to coming back to this comment. :)

0
0
0.000