Wow! Told Ya So... AGAIN!

about 3 years ago

This must be some kind of @edicted world-record.

I've been chanting for a while now that we would be hitting $2 CUB on Wednesday. Been saying it for a week now. Why? Major Uniswap vibes combined with the information received on Monday the 15th when yields were reduced the first time.

The market didn't really bottom until two days after the yield reduction, so I figured this next yield reduction would take about two days to bottom out. Here we are: Wednesday! The day of blood!

This is the birth of Uniswap.

As I keep saying over and over, I'm getting major Uniswap vibes from CUB. Everyone jumps on the hype train in the beginning and you get those crazy spikes, but reality has to crash back to Earth eventually. Uniswap also crashed to a $2 low: more accurately $1.80.

However, we see that once the bottom is in on an asset like this, it becomes very short-lived. CUB market cap has plummeted to $2.3M, and we were having a pretty easy time of sustaining the $2.8M-$3.0M level for quite a while. Surely there are a few CUB bulls who don't even know the price is this low yet.

It looks like what happened here is that some big players in the Cub Den realized they were a bit overextended. 100k CUB exited the den. At least half of that was dumped on the market to reenter the LP. Not sure how many (if any) exited the ecosystem entirely.

Why did this happen?

Too many bulls assuming that a supply shock would happen instantly in the wake of a yield reduction, and then panicking when that obviously wasn't the case. Again, why would it be? We already saw what happens when yield gets reduced. The crypto crack addicts panic and dump. Game over, bro, game over.

Liquidity is liquid

Imagine the faucet of CUB pouring into a bucket. When you turn down the faucet the liquid is still in the bucket. It's not going to magically disappear. That takes what we call in this biz: time. You have to wait for the liquidity in the bucket to drain, something that apparently no one is willing to do: wait.

WEN WEN WEN WEN WEN WEN WEN?!??! wen

Hell, it takes Bitcoin 12-18 months for the bucket to evaporate and a supply shock to occur. People thought it was going to take CUB less than a day? Please. Litecoin's halfing was August 5, 2019 and the supply shock still hasn't hit... lol.

This is why we can't have nice things!

I told myself I was going to wait for Wednesday and get in on this $2 CUB price, but I just couldn't do it. That's the problem with these projects and the FOMO that surrounds them. NOBODY employs restraint or proper dollar cost averaging strategies. The price is $2 and everyone is already out of money to defend this level. If we had just played it safe CUB would be getting aggressively bought right now.

Pivot strategy

Now that CUB is trading at such a low value, I refuse to sell it on the market. All my farm is going directly into the DEN, I can no longer justify rolling my gains back into the compound farm. $2 is a good level to defend, especially while the market cap is so low. Basically all the CUB I receive at this level is going directly into the DEN, and I'll think about reentering an LP once we get back to say $4.

Again, major Uniswap vibes. I look forward to a CUB price of $10+ in Q2, and a price of $30+ in Q4. This is the mega-bubble year, and crazy things happen. Good things come to those who wait.