Panic Trading
So last night I impulsively started a powerdown on LEO. Not because I wanted to go bearish on LEO, but because I wanted to go bearish on ETH. Seems like all we have left now are the diehard holders and the people FOMOing for this upcoming airdrop.
So because I'm somewhat bearish on ETH in the short term I felt like I needed to sell LEO. Truth be told, we are so linked at the hip to ETH now that I kinda feel like I don't even need to hold ETH... and if I do I should just shove liquidity into the Uniswap pool and use it to farm.
I woke up this morning and canceled my powerdown... no longer in freakout mode and I didn't like seeing my vote strength get nerfed by 25% in an instant. The inflation that we control with powered up stake is pretty massive and impressive if I'm being honest. Especially considering that this inflation doesn't seem to get dumped on the market. Everyone wants a piece of LEO it seems.
So I've been thinking about all the crazy stuff I've been talking about lately, and I realized something that's pretty messed up:
War and Terror are good for the markets right now.
I'll admit I was a bit confused when the market was spiking as "domestic terrorists" "raided" the capitol. Why would that kind of uncertainty present that kind of response in the market? That's exactly the kind of thing I wanted to hedge against, and the market went into the opposite direction than I expected it would (up).
That's because the chance of actual insurrection on Jan 6th was 0%. There was no uncertainty. There was a 0% chance that Trump was going to coup the presidency over that event happening. But the interesting thing here is that many people somehow think this was a possible outcome, and now we need to trade our freedoms for security to protect the greater good.
And all the fear that's being generated right now, empty or otherwise, is great for the market, because Patriot Act Surveillance State 2.0 seems to be rolling out soon, and the people at the top stand to profit from that development.
So the next time some crazy shit happens and the market goes up instead of down, we'll know it's because that's exactly what the big-money players wanted. They want people scared and willing to accept this New Normal. Hell, they say it to our faces. The New Normal is coming. Get ready to accept it! Even Conan the Barbarian says we should support Biden no matter what!
I just now walked into the other room and some political nonsense is on the TV. I immediately heard the word "insurrection".
They are really milking this thing for all it's got, aren't they?
Why you jealous of my freedom, bro?
Seems like we've figured out the rules for lockdown pretty good: all the big business get to stay open out of necessity and small business remains under constant attack. You know how I always talk about tax/debt/wage slavery? Well apparently they don't like small business owners trying to compete while avoiding the wages part of that equation. Shutter your doors forever and go to work for the big boys like everyone else! Climb that corporate ladder!
Gross...
A corporation is a large-scale entity that creates automation using people as the robots. Things are going to get very awkward around here when the actual robots take over. First with driving and delivery, then with construction, production, logistics, and whatever else.
Unemployment is kind of like a traffic jam on the freeway... If there are 25% too many cars on the road then throughput grinds to a screeching halt. Well, the same thing is true with an economy at 25% unemployed, velocity of money will crumble. Is it really so silly to assume that this is exactly what's going to happen sometime in the next decade? I think not.
The Displacement is real.
You might even say "Disruption". Such blasphemy to say the word when it doesn't apply to crypto, amirite?
As far as Bitcoin is concerned...
I got some good advice to step back and think more long term: which provided me the following conclusion: If this pattern does indeed play out we should be at $30k for quite some time (2-3 months) before volume drops off a cliff and we crash to $20k around late March.
Then again, if I'm wrong, we're probably still in a bull market during the mega-bubble year... wouldn't that be something? Gogo $300k!
Panic trading need not apply
And what if something crazy happens concerning this election or the economy or COVID or...??? After seeing what happened on Jan 6th, there seems to be just as good a chance of such an event actually being bullish for the market rather than bearish. Pretty sad when you think about it.
Turns out war, fear, and ultimate control can end up being quite profitable for some. Seems like people are being farmed just as savagely as the animals we buy from the store. True story.
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@edicted, In my opinion changes are arriving rapidly, somewhere deep down we all can feel it, and this change is in the form of Volatility. Stay blessed.
I think some are maybe thinking "insurrection" means something it doesn't?
The event that took place was certainly violent (5 dead, one of them a cop that was beaten to death). It was against an authority or government (the US congress finishing the election process). Maybe it's getting confused with another concept?
As far as the market... I'm not as smart as you on these things, but I also see a lot of sideways action coming. The way the volume slipped out from under EVERYTHING, not just btc, and the way pricing just sort of picked a spot at the new vol levels looks sideways af for me. Isn't that the easiest place for traders to get paid?
So sad. That's the one that really hits my heart if I think about it... why'd you make me think about it? eDICKted
🤣
Good post as always. Thank you
I did look up the def of insurrection and wrote the post as is anyway.
Even though it fits the definition pretty well I feel like the response is extremely disproportionate when compared to all the crazy shit that happened in 2020.
Republicans across the nation are calling foul about the election being rigged and the response has been "Well the courts threw out all the cases so obviously nothing was tampered with." "No evidence, obviously didn't happen, COVIDIOT!"
No one is talking about how they are going to improve election security or process, because no one wants that. We're using a stupid 200 year old system on purpose for the exact reason that it's hackable. If people are going to die in a riot that's a better reason than most, if you ask me.
I hate when they say "didn't happen"
It's true there hasn't been any evidence of fraud to a degree that would change who won. It seem sensible that if there was a bunch of evidence, they'd at least hint at it in a court filing. None of that means it didn't happen though. Could just as well mean nobody got caught 🤷♂
But you know me... I long for a world were claims aren't valid without the logic and evidence to back them up. Imagination is entertaining, but everybody could imagine something different. Not a great way to evaluate reality
If not courts, election officials, the voter registration + logs... what do you think people would need to see to let go of that particular imaginary beast? (that beast being that the election results aren't valid). Or have they heard the same thing repeated so much now that they'll just believe it no matter what?
Crypto is all about self-governance and automated governance. If governments refuse to secure their elections... looks like it doesn't matter. The tech will dev on regardless.
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🤣
This shouldn't be true... but I've seen the world this past year. Nothing is more true. "The tech will dev on regardless"
too good!
Yeah it's pretty weird seeing this comet hit and the dinosaurs not realizing they're going extinct. Gonna be ugly. The system is going to cannibalize itself when Big Tech realizes they get to be the central banks. The whole process starts all over again when the people realize they get to be the central banks.
I'm gonna laugh my ass off when some 12 year old becomes a billionaire.
Wow!
Theres a lot to unpack in this thought for sure. Pretty cool if decentralization and code are written fairly, but that means We the People need to learn more code and stay ahead of the curve of tech and code development.
@shortsegments
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Then Hive has some flaws with the lack of governance vote decay. There's gotta be about a half dozen dead Hivers/Steemians, minimum, that are still voting for their witnesses from the Steem days.
I agree that some sort of mechanism to make investors rethink their witness choices is a good thing, and delegations.
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Vote decay is being worked on for the next hardfork.
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Yeah, other recent events (e.g. the Autonomous Zone) that also could fairly be called insurrection haven't been called that, or at least not as prominently. But that doesn't mean it's wrong to use it when the shoe fits.
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Probably partially from bias, but also the imagery. In the minds eye, they basically took over a street and some private buildings. Obv implementing your own law qualifies as insurrection 😂
Taking over the Capitol Building to stop the election process just seems like more what you'd expect. Makes it sound a bit big... maybe we need a new phrase. Maybe "momentary kings of the hill" 😎
I'll see myself out
I love your writing style! Your posts zing from pillar to post, one thing leading to another and all at breakneck speed like a puppy dog on acid!
Keep it up. we have precious little entertaining and readable content so stuff like this is a beacon of hope.
As for the commenter who mentioned the definition of 'insurrection', In English, a definition is not always the reason for usage, the context and emotion a word evokes when used often 'trumps' (excuse the pun) the true definition.
However, never say never. Come live in Thailand, we have coups and insurrection weekly and this population for the most part, usually do exactly what they're told!
Take it easy and best wishes :-)
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It’s obvious you are one of the strong hands. In the grand scheme of things what is $10k in btc if we believe it will be worth $100k or more in the future.
Big Tech deplatforming of Trump is turning out to be the worst business decision they have ever made.
All the alternative platforms are gaining HUGE numbers of new users - Telegram 25 million in 3 days! Gab 600,000 in 24 hours (even though its pretty crappy and barely functions under the load).
In addition every coordinated banning of commercial competitors in the online advertising market (and the Trump organisation is a competitor) is criminal cartel conduct. Big Tech execs are going to end up in gaol over this, if not in the USA, in other countries that still have rule of law.
Banks deplatforming Trump have just told all their customers that their money is not safe. Where is that going to lead?
I sort of hope all the banks deplatform Trump so he is forced into using cryptocurrency.
Imagine if Trump said "Buy Bitcoin; dump the banks that dumped me."
Whichever platforms Trump moves his communications and finances to are going to be HUGE winners as he will bring tens of millions of people with him.
It is a massive commercial opportunity.
There's a big target on Trump.
He's quite the social liability right now.
ooohh, nice quote. veg nutz forever. what animals are you talking about? you mean the beefs and the porks? are those things really alive? man if that's true then the human race deserves what it gets.
I think we saw something similar happen at the beginning of last year. I know myself and several other people were expecting the markets to tank during the whole Covid thing and in that time we also expected cryptos to rise. Instead, cryptos followed the markets and while they collapsed a little, they eventually slowly grew and grew. I guess like you said, most of us know now it was the big corporations propping everything up because they are in control. Meanwhile unemployment skyrockets and the small businesses suffered.
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One thing that I refuse to even imagine. It's like all the SF movies of the 80's and 90's are becoming a reality.
Yeah, for the filthy bastards running the world. These who actually created all the crisis we see and endure. It's all planned, as much as I refuse to digest this also, it's clear that this is not random or just a reaction.
Gandhi was right. One of the true politicians that have lived on this earth.
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The news, rumors and FUD gossip spread like wildfire in the days to come and we may see a collapse again.
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Expenonential growth using debt.. what happens when we deflate!
Wow it's back at 36K today, I suspect it will make another run at 40k.
I think I might sell half there....
And let the rest ride for a few more months, then pull the final trigger in February....
Or sell 25% now and let the rest ride until February....
I feel...conflicted....
Its definitely a good problem to have, with unemployment, politics and social media literally on Fire...
I am really worried about losing my Bitcoin and Ethereum gains...
I feel just a bit guilty...but then again I just suffered through two Bear Markets with Bitcoin, Steem and now Hive...sand I hung in there when Leo was like 4 cents, so perhaps I am entitled to this particular problem?
LOL!
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Today's markets are totally irrational.
One of the reasons that I think contributes to this is the fact that people in some countries (mainly in the USA) are receiving money for not working.
As what I usually say free money has no value and people end up spending it right away and in my opinion many are putting money in either the crypto market or the traditional market.
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