Odds & Ends

in LeoFinance21 days ago


There's just a bunch of random things I'd like to say.

Let's get started.

First off we all need to be worried about a dead-cat-bounce. Many called this out the second Bitcoin popped up to $37k from $30k. I saw a tweet that said: "This is the dead-cat-bounce you aren't going to sell." So true, but also so false. It takes longer than that for a bounce to happen.


This was a fun little tweet I just saw.

You all know how I love market cycles.

Bitcoin price has been charted against moon cycles here, with the full moons being the bottoms and the new moons being the tops. Pretty wild stuff... look how stupidly accurate that is lol.

Surprise! After checking the dates TODAY is a full moon. Good shit. Goddess Moon has bought the dip. We're good here. I was thinking I'd wait at least a week before selling off some gains... maybe two. But now three weeks looks even better. After all, it took 2 weeks just to crash from $60k to $30k.

Next new moon is June 10th... so like I was thinking... even if it's just a dead-cat-bounce it still should take like 2 weeks for that local peak to hit. As luck would have it: there was also a local peak on June 10th 2017 during the year of the last mega bubble. BTC hit $3k that day and then crashed to $2k a month later. Interesting stuff.



I've finally figured out that I need stake in all 4 of the main pools:

  • bLEO/BNB

Depending on the market I need to move money around but never fully exit any of these pools. Everyone got caught with their pants down in this recent crash. Felt kinda dumb having nothing in the CUB/BUSD hedge fund, and now I've paid the price: never again.


Crypto MLM

So multiple people have approached me with a crypto called Pi and I had to look into it recently. By all accounts looks like an MLM scam that farms users for data. It's not even connected to the market yet and you can "mine" the crypto on your phone by just clicking a button.

However, I think crypto will be the first tool ever to create a LEGIT MLM. I'll need to write a full post on this later but if anyone can do it crypto can. Multi-Level-Marketing doesn't need to be a scam. It has a few main components.

  • Downlines
  • Uplines
  • Fees paid to the uplines.
  • Value provided to the downlines.

In MLM, the people under you are like your little minions that pay you tribute. In every MLM ever invented this creates a system of exploitation. That's because the uplines, who often act like they are rich when they are really in crippling debt via maintaining their status, don't actually have any real money. There's a TV show called On Becoming a God in Central Florida that's pretty awesome. It's about MLM (in the show it's called FAM) but it mirrors Amway and other real MLMs.

I believe a crypto MLM will be invented where the downlines and uplines have a much more symbiotic relationship. A fully functioning MLM will allow a downline to break away from their upline at any time and stop paying them tribute. Therefore, uplines must provide their downlines with real value or they will leave. There also needs to be a decentralized reputation system in play so users can't run around doing shady shit.

Perhaps MLM is always a scam no matter what, but I don't think it has to be.


Banning cash increases the value of cash.

Lots of people think we are heading toward a cashless society. I see this as an absolute impossibility. Many occupations in the service industry depend on cash and the overhaul required to get to cashless is pretty massive.

Where supply meets demand: markets are made. It's impossible to get rid of cash because there will always be demand for cash. The best way to limit the use of cash is to limit demand, which means giving everyone a data phone and having better privacy than we do now (not worse). I believe with the advent of crypto the demand for cash can only go up (as the physical nature will be the other good thing left about fiat).

At the end of the day lets assume cash does get banned. The government instructs everyone to take their cash to a bank and deposit it. All business are now legally obligated to reject it. What happens next?

Well, they just eliminated 99% of the supply of cash. What happens when you reduce supply of an asset that has demand? The value goes up. So if the demand for cash doesn't go down 99% or more the value of cash will automatically go up. This shouldn't be surprising: black-markets always make the price of the assets involved skyrocket. When that asset is currency itself, things are bound to get very weird.

On top of all that this would make gold and silver coins much more valuable again as well. No more cash means that real hard-money can once again take over to fill the void of demand.


The beating will continue: until morale improves!

We've all taking quite the beating in crypto. It was very telling to see the reactions of this crash on Twitter. None of these people are ready for what's going to happen over the next year. They will be on a constant rollercoaster of ups and downs like a straight crack addict.

The word DECIMATED came from roman times. It used to mean punishing the troops by purposefully killing 10% of everyone in the unit randomly. Obviously it is not used in that way anymore. If anything it means losing 90% or more (opposite of losing 10%). We might say that Steem was decimated in 2018. Even Hive was decimated from $1 to 10 cents.

It should be obvious by now that volatility is bad. People can't handle the downswings psychologically, and the high of the spike does not make up for the devastation of the low. This is one reason why deflationary economics are inferior to inflationary ones. Deflationary economics wreck all the new users that are excited to participate in this new economy: like someone that says they'll "never drink again" we get the same over and over with crypto investing.


Creating money on click.

This is a feature of Hive that is greatly underutilized. Say what you want about blogging, but throwing the baby out with the bathwater is foolish. So many people are always constantly trying to theory-craft how Hive should make radical changes in the way it works. Stop trying to change the core of the system and build on top of what we have instead: there are infinite possibilities.

I would never trade the ability to create money on click for anything. It's simply too good. Just because we haven't fully figured out how it should work doesn't mean we should scrap such insanely valuable technology.


Abundance: how much does 3 ice cubes cost?
  • How much does it cost to leave a light on for a few hours?
  • How much does it cost to take a shower?
  • How much does it cost for a glass of water?
  • How much does it cost to throw away a small piece of garbage?

Said no one ever.

When things become abundant, we stop paying attention to the cost. No one cares what the difference in cost is between 3 and 4 ice cubes. No one cares what the difference in cost is between a 10 and 12 minute shower. No one cares how much it costs to leave a light on for 50 vs 70 minutes. Power, water, and plastic (yuck) are largely abundant.

Many of these costs get lumped into a flat fee. Your garbage is a flat fee. Your internet bandwidth is a flat fee. I think the days of flat fees are ending with crypto (micro-charging data streams) but that's a whole post in itself.

The point is that abundance is upon us: except this time the abundance is coming from money itself. We live in a time of the most radical changes in human history, and no one seems to realize it.

There will be many growing pains. How do we stop people from wasting resources when resources are abundant? Is this even a problem? If the abundant resource pollutes our environment (plastic/fossil-fuel) it matters quite a bit. Not so much otherwise.


And thus ends my ranting about random topics.
Back to work on Magitek.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta


Banning cash increases the value of cash.

For gold and silver coins, sure. Maybe even copper coins. But for pieces of paper? Fiat has value because a government says it has value. If a government says it no longer has value, how would that increase its value?

How much does it cost for a glass of water?
Said no one ever.

Oh, I’d be willing to bet that it’s been said in poor, dry places fairly often throughout history. Velázquez even painted several versions of it.

The beating will continue: until morale improves!

Heh. I’ve seen this attributed to everyone from Captain Bligh to a WW2 Japanese officer. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s actually much older than either of those.

If a government says it no longer has value, how would that increase its value?

It doesn't matter if the government says an asset has value or not.
The asset has value if people agree that it has value.
If the government destroys 99% of all cash but only removes 98% of the demand: the value of cash doubles.
It's still an asset that's hard to counterfeit that everyone has already agreed has value.
You can't un-brainwash the population and tell them cash has no value.
That takes generations. The timelines don't add up.

Creating a black market for an asset will always increase its value.

Maybe numismatists would consider it to have some value (much like some Confederate money does), but I doubt that anyone bought and sold anything for Confederate currency in 1866.


This is my favorite coin.

Liberty Silver Dollar.

I have many of them.
1 Ounce 90% pure junk silver.
I bought them at $6-$9.
They are now worth $30.

Yeah, and I also like the walking Liberty half dollars, fairly common in circulation when I was a kid. At least as far as half dollars go, never a particularly popular denomination. Because cash registers never had a place for them? Chicken/egg?

The beating will continue: until morale improves!
We've all taking quite the beating in crypto. It was very telling to see the reactions of this crash on Twitter. None of these people are ready for what's going to happen over the next year

I always feel that all crypto newbies need an experienced user to advice them during the bears (and likely after). This is another selling point for hive, if only more people will see it

even amidst rushing waters, the horse might not drink.

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Good point

I think crypto will be the first tool ever to create a LEGIT MLM

There already have been legit MLM's. Avon or Tupperware would be many people's go to examples. The key to legit MLM is having a real product or service to sell.

According to the FTC, "MLM's actually sell their product to members of the general public, without requiring these consumers to pay anything extra or to join the MLM system. MLM's may pay commissions to a long string of distributors, but these commission are paid for real retail sales, not for new recruits."

Now a real product can be mediocre or shitty of course, but businesses of all sorts hustle to sell things for as much as they convince customers they're worth, not just MLM.

Sure but I think crypto will be the first thing to create an MLM where pretty much all of the affiliates are making a ton of money.


All is over, it's the end. Nothing will have value tomorrow.


Or wait. This is not a real gun is it a hand and the cat is alive?


Man. If they get rid of cash, I'll have to give people beer cans directly. I better invest in a bigger cart.

I'll have to give people beer cans directly.

If they are not empty, many people would accept them. :D

I always make sure to empty them. Just doing my part to save the world.

In Germany, all empty beer cans are worth quite a bit of money. Three empty cans are worth like about one US Dollar. Same for bottles, especially plastic bottles. When you drink a beer in the streets (which is perfectly legal) you just put the empty can or bottle under a public bin. It will always be picked up by people specialized on that.

Three empty cans are worth like about one US Dollar.

Then I should go to Germany then.

I am a Hungarian, currently living in Hungary with a low (approximately $250 USD per month) pension-like income (because of my multiple disabilities). Nowadays I also work in a 4 hours part time job, but my income still does not reach the local minimum wage, which would be approximately 550 USD per month.

Well, as a Hungarian you are EU and free to move to Germany. Collecting cans and bottles can be a side-income for many people here. But with minimum wage even McDonalds easily pays over 1.2k EURO per month.

Where I live in Canada we pay a deposit which gets returned to us when we take the recycling in ourselves. Leaving a can or bottle laying around is no different than leaving coins on the ground or in the trash.

And yet millions do it everyday, while coin diggers search for them.

Absolutely. So it's hard to feel guilty after throwing one out the window, unless it hits a beaver of course.

interesting cub many recommend it, I will investigate.
I also think it can go up more because btc is volatile and always goes up and down a lot but that makes people close profits fast and let losses run.
I don't like MLM by experience, but there will always be newbies working in it.
Cash: in my country physical money is worth more than digital money because there is a shortage of cash and only with cash you can pay for transportation.
Wow, abundance makes lose value and scarcity makes the little have more value, I have lived it.
Thanks for sharing. !LUV

That was a good rant. More people need to hear this. Rehived

Those are certainly some interesting thoughts. That chart of the moon phases is pretty nuts! I saw that when you shared it in Discord yesterday. It really gets you thinking for sure!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Interesting correlation with the moon cycle. I never thought about that lol

I thought about having some stake in those CUB pools but I gave up because it didn't feel right to spread it so much... I wish I hadn't

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Never saw the correlation between moon phases. Crazily accurate!

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Felt kinda dumb having nothing in the CUB/BUSD hedge fund

Can you explain why? I was under the assumption that CUB going down in price by a lot would give you a bunch of CUB and less BUSD. Wouldn't this be worst compared to entering a bLEO/BNB pool where the exchange didn't change much?

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I have been mining Pi for a little bit over a year. Your assessment seems to be pretty spot on. If they ever reach mainnet, it might be worth something... but likely not much.

Your MLM description sounds a lot like Hive.

You are killing it on POB... enjoy the extra gains.

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anyone checked how far that correlation with the moon cycle goes back? Probably is a spurious correlation, but who knows?