"New" $50k Price Target

in LeoFinance3 months ago (edited)

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I just noticed this and if the pattern completes we could get $50k Bitcoin in as little as three weeks. It all started on this most recent pullback from very near ATH to $16200... I was thinking to myself... you know... I've seen that before.

Now, I wasn't thinking much of it because this latest "flash-crash" of 17% made the market look extremely weak. I was fully expecting another crash down to $15250 with the hopes of simply creating a new ATH monthly candle. Wouldn't that be bullish?

However, today the market perked up just a tiny bit...

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You see, we've broken out of that potentially bearish wedge to the upside, I was fully expecting the opposite, but here we are. I'm not going to claim this is a hugely bullish development, but it is slightly bullish.

ATH

Now that we've broken upward back into the Lucky Number 7 range, the chance of creating an absolutely massive ATH monthly candlestick is high. Obviously such an event would be some level of bullish, and we shouldn't be surprised to see more upward action from there.

If this mini-2017 pattern completes, the upside will be massive, in as little as 3 weeks.

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  • The red rectangle is June.
  • The orange rectangle is August.
  • The green rectangle is November.

And I'll be damned if this pattern doesn't look EXACTLY the same.

At 'exactly' the same times.

Because the dip in November 2017 went from $5866 to $18500 in 25 days, I think the same thing can happen this time around. That's an 3.15x increase. A 3.15x increase from $16200 puts us at $51k, so round down to $50k because that would be a pretty powerful psychological unit-bias barrier.

Now I've already been saying my target for this run is $40k-$60k, so now that I've seen this pattern and done the math and seen that it comes out to the exact average of my previous estimate... wow, pretty exciting for me personally. I think this has a significant chance of happening. I'm talking coin flip odds. Going bearish at a time like this is not an option.

It's only a mini-bull-run.

That's the crazy part, because even if we get to $50k, that's still only x3.9 the doubling curve; well within range of what is possible at a time like this. The run we got in Summer 2019 was x3.1 the curve and we are in a much more bullish place this time around with all the corporate adoption.


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The reason I call this a mini-pattern-repeat is that in 2017 the price of Bitcoin was MEGA-BUBBLED x13 higher than the doubling curve. Obviously x3.9 is a lot less than x13, and totally doable in this environment.

This means that even if we hit $50k there is still enough time for that mini-bubble to deflate before we hit the big one... although I must admit that perhaps many of the theories that place said mega bubble in Summer 2022 instead of Q4 2021 would have a lot more credence. I guess we'll find out soon™ enough.

Or in the context of this prediction... three weeks time.

Another important thing to note is that if Bitcoin does end up peaking around December 20, that gives plenty of time for the market to be volatile and deflate during Feb while getting a dead-cat bounce in March. But at this point I've gotten way too ahead of myself and just need to wait to see if this actually happens first.

Cheers!

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The first phase is obviously simply to wait till the end of the month for that ATH monthly candlestick. From there the market should give us a bit more relevant information. At some point BTC will be trading above $20k, which should squash all this speculation about how we're going to bounce off ATH without running higher. This should cause all those people to FOMO back into the market. Speculators gotta speculate.

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I try to speculate as little as possible and only buy until the top of this bull market in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022.

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That's the best way to do it.
I'm simply torturing myself and anyone else that will listen :D

Please go on. This is highly entertaining. :D

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My question is, will we ever seen coins like Hive go anywhere. Man have we been holding our breath for a LONG time.

Certainly, if I could go back in time, I would have kept my 8 BTC that I initially had and never bought anything else. Also the 60 or so ETH. I traded it all away like a sweating FOMOing fool in 2017 and 2018. (Let's not even get into the 50 BTC that I solo mined way back in the day before I deleted it thinking the govt. was going to get me)

LOL man... so many tough breaks!
Condolences!

Don't worry about Hive. When Bitcoin transaction fees are $50+ and the scaling issue hits everyone like a ton of bricks we'll be doing just fine. Unfortunately I've learned the hard way that you can only go bullish on Hive price action safely one out of four years... the mega-bubble year. 2021 is our time.

Hopefully it will be better the next time around because we got rid of Steemit Inc. and a lot of the centralized ninjamine stake got spread around rather than being controlled by those who didn't respect it. No promises.

Fingers crossed! It pisses me off seeing the Steem price outperforming us. It's just bizarre that people are investing in it! Unless it is is still just Justin propping it up.

Steem has a strong Korean community. Justin Sun is better with his money than the average Hive whale. We should have never pumped x10 to $1... now all the Hive whales are burnt out and Sun was able to sell that peak and make even more money.

With the predictability of the Bitcoin algorithms it seems natural that they would be reflected in the marketplace.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeated-ly while expecting a different result. Having a predictable management of a currency and not expect the same predicable results to be reflected in the market seems the likely oversight of those that see no patterns in Bitcoin's algorithms and have no sense of a financial black hole beginning formation as mutual fund managers, covid-19 benefit beneficiaries and even states start stacking. Iran's 3%-ish hashpower rate on the BTC network is one such honest case which does not entail crypto confiscation which has been the first order of adoption for the Five Eyes Cebal.

That said, by following the Bitcoin market for some time now, my non-financial advice is to expect a hot knife the fourth quarter of 2021; the pattern being the 18 month-ish point out from a recent halfing.

The tip may well be worth busting keys from the vault of this old HODLer; keys which have not seen light of day since 2015's doubling down. 😎

Yeah the sudden bump up when I saw the charts this morning seems to have quickly put an end to the mainstream media articles I've seen. With phrases like "bloodbath" being chucked around, I just have to laugh, considering the run its been on in the last 2 months!

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Ha yeah $13k to $19k to $16k... what an unmitigated disaster!

Lol, yep, such a blood bath that it has pretty much recovered in less than a week!

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I'll take the under on that $50k within 3 weeks coin flip :)

Ha, only a fool would make that bet.
Oh wait you already know that :D

Yeah I sold a tiny bit, which was all my funds in an alt wallet at part of the downward dip, got it back in at the bottom so now I’m ready for some fun. What I’m not looking forward to is taxes.

What about alts sir?
Are you still expecting the peak of the bull market to occur in Q4 2021?

Hat off for this price action comparison. As much as I don't like comparing the current price action with late 2017, you really pulled out its similarities.

$50,000 by EOY would be spectacular and the show for the next year even more spectacular.

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I try to stay away from alts because Bitcoin is so much more reliable. Certainly Ethereum will keep running up if ETH 2.0 delivers. I think Litecoin is going to kill it as well.

IMO during such a risky time-period the smartest move is to only gamble with Bitcoin at this point. I wouldn't pump fiat into anything else.

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Love your optimism! Hope that the markets love it also and will react accordingly. :)

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In about a month, you will either be a hero...or a zero.

We will see if the pattern recognition plays out here. I did add a bit on Friday so I am a bit better positioned.

$50K is quite a move but, as you point out, it is not without precedent. It happened before. Year end runs seem to be liked by BTC.

The question is whether it will pull alts with it if it does go on a tear like this.

As always, good analysis.

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I think there's a good chance that alts actually retreat back into BTC, fueling the beginning of the run, while an explosion would occur as we ascend into the $30k-$50k range. Although the big alts like Ethereum and Litecoin could easily outperform the entire time as they often do.

We are living historic times in the cryptocurrency world and we are heading for the better. With Bitcoin having all time high lows the price just consolidates year after year. This tendency pushes it to new record prices and pulls the entire market up. Great to be in the space, many opportunities.

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If selling at 50k, at what point to buy back in for the next leg? 😁

YMMV

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Anywhere back down in the teens I would think is reasonable, or the low 20's. If that scenario plays out that would be my direction.

would be not bad :)

we see us on the moon!

It doesn't make me immerse myself in the crypto world, but from everything I've read and analyzed myself I think what awaits us is fabulous. This has not started yet and I think that from now on we will have some values for the BTC that will be very encouraging!

Hats to the moon does not stop!

Hug

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there is a contest on coinmarketcap where you can predict when the price of btc will reach 20k! check it out if you want to

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It's not impossible but I don't think that's gonna happen soon let wait this week to see if price go down if not it's possible it will increase more

I hope it 🤔👍👍

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The biggest reason why I don't think it will happen is due to where we are in the cycle. The fractal you are pointing to happened after bitcoin had already made new all time highs and was getting near the blow off top portion of the cycle. We aren't really near that portion of the cycle just yet.

True but there are also a lot of similarities with the Summer 2019 bull run which popped up from pure speculation (Bakkt) and because we hadn't had a bull run in 18 months.... once again we are in that pocket where we haven't had a bull run in 18 months... and we are only trading 50% higher than the doubling curve during a month in which the market doesn't usually peak.

All the history points to the idea that even if we don't spike up from here, December and January can usually keep the plateau going before crashing. Going bearish now just doesn't make sense on a lot of levels. I'm not even going to think about taking gains for another 2 weeks minimum.

For sure. Saying bitcoin isn't likely to hit $50k within a few weeks isn't bearish :) I'm just saying that the past halving patterns don't really point to that happening within this time frame.

They certainly do not. Unfortunately we have no data if we are looking at economic crisis' of the past, because Bitcoin was born out of the last one. Very possible that will trump the 4 year cycle.