Market Watch: Time to refactor.

in LeoFinance12 days ago

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June moon soon.

It's been a weird wild ride.

We got the consolidation we were looking for during January to May, but that consolidation was at a jacked up bubbled level that got shorted into the dirt. Now everyone is still terrified that the party is over. The party is... not over.

However, fear reigns supreme.

Somehow I highly doubt that this market is going to make an instant recovery in such a short period of time. The sharks will take every opportunity to capitalize on this fear they've instilled in retail.

The chart posted above is an extreme rule of thumb that depends on the current circumstances of the market. However, we have yet to see a summer that didn't trade bullish (or at least flat). Considering this a mega bubble year (2013, 2017, 2021) I have to assume that we will see some pretty nice gains over the next few months.

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While the cyclical chart remains open to extreme interpretation, the one metric that hasn't failed me yet is the doubling curve. Even when COVID struck and sent us tumbling 50% lower, that crash only lasted three weeks, and then we traveled on the curve for 5 months after that to the letter.


2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curve

JanFebMarAprilMayJune
$13867$14933$16000$17067$18133$19200
JulyAugSeptOctNovDec
$20267$21333$22400$23467$24533$25600

On a certain level it just blows my mind that Bitcoin just keeps consistently doubling in value every year and literally no one talks about it (except me). How is that even possible? I guess once the mainstream catches on it won't work anymore. As soon as the market knows these things it has a way of trading around it.

But until then...

I remember when BTC was $50k and I was warning everyone that it was only worth $20k. I practically got laughed at. People just assuming that it's never coming back down to earth. My how the emotions rage. Now that everyone is in extreme fear I say the same shit and no one disagrees. But I would still be really surprised if we returned to the doubling curve this summer.

Why's that?

Because we are legit right where we were last time in 2017.

t2.png

Back then BTC was x1.75 to x2 higher than the curve. And that's the same range that we find ourselves in today. The only difference is that the market tried to price in the mega-bubble way way way too early and that bubbled just crashed back to exactly where it should be.

If we see a repeat of 2017, August is going to be a pretty amazing month. Sure, we might get a local peak in June and a crash in July. There's still plenty of fear left in the market to make that happen. However, a lot of that fear may be gone come August.

I am, however, still predicting a nice crash in September as that is one of the most predictable months for a crash it seems (out of the entire year). Where will we crash to in late September? In 2017 it was x2.2 above the doubling curve. At todays prices that's $50k, which is the perfect support line if we get a sick summer run up to $70k-$100k.

$70k BTC would make more sense in August if we are expecting a standard 30% retracement. Unfortunately, you never know what institutions will do with their newfound powers. It's pretty obvious they are going to manipulate these markets and constantly dominate retail just like they always do. If I see BTC get up to $100k in August I'm going to expect another massive wave of FUD and short-selling in September that brings us back to $50k.

t1.png

Speaking of $50k...

We are still trapped in a range-bound wedge, and time is running out. Will we break to the upside or downside? Considering the circumstances, I have to guess upside. But again $20k is always on the table should shit hit the fan. Considering this institutional adoption I highly doubt it. All the longs that were gonna get squeezed already did. Another round of FUD would have extremely diminished returns.

So, assuming we break to the upside that still leaves that terrifying $50k resistance line in the way. And, if I'm being honest, that's just way too good of an opportunity to capitalize on all this fear and go short (even if only for a week). If we had enough momentum to break past that barrier in the short-term I'd be extremely bullish. Eh who am I kidding I'm always extremely bullish. How can you not with an asset doubling in value every year?

So once we break out of this local wedge to the upside I think there's an even better chance that we will get suck in the bigger wedge between $40k-$50k. However the gap is narrowing quickly. If we break to the upside again after that the sky is the limit.

xenuParadox triangle.jpg

2017

Looking at the rest of 2017, we see that there was a 20% dip in November that would have been pretty much impossible to predict or make any money off of, then from there it was up up up up mega-bubble into the 2018 bust. Still seems like we are in line for the same thing to go down this time around.

What about alts?

Summer is normally pretty good for alts because the market is less volatile than winter. When Bitcoin consolidates at various price points people get bored and move out to alts. I don't expect that pattern to change. Lower caps, higher risk, higher reward. As long as BTC stays above $30k until the end of the year alts will continue to climb furiously.

In fact, I think Hive is due for another crazy 10x. Our support lines recently have been nothing but legendary. Looking to DCA from $1.90 to $5.00 Hive. Not looking to sell a whole lot but obviously if we reach those prices I can buy the fuckin dip like a champ. I feel like it goes without saying that if we 10x to $5 there will be an automatic crash that will likely last months. Happens every time. No need to be surprised by it. There's so much going on with Hive there's bound to be a fresh wave of hype sooner or later.

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There's also the possibility that liquidity from alts gets sucked back into Bitcoin as it begins making all time highs again. If alts start performing poorly against Bitcoin as it ascends above $64k we'll know. Honestly I'm quite curious to see if this happens. I don't think it will but it's certainly possible considering that BTC dominance is only at 40%.

At this rate I think the BTC dominance will drop all the way to 25% or less during the peak of the mega-bubble. I'm also half expecting Ethereum to flip Bitcoin for a week or two. When crazy shit like that starts happening it's DEFINITELY time to start dollar cost average selling. We do not want to be caught up in extreme greed as this mega-bubble inflates.

Conclusion

Speculation is always a constant process of refactoring the information we've been given. It's impossible to time the peaks and the troughs, but we can capitalize on rough generalizations. Successful trading only requires a 5% edge. We only have to be right 55% of the time. To put that into perspective, we can lose 45% of the time and still be professional gamblers. It's all about taking measured bets, being willing to take losses, and dollar cost average to reduce volatility. One of these days I'll figure it out for real.

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That annual cycle shows March as red (as is September), but March this year BTC actually was actually up a fair bit.

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So maybe September might be good too?

Yeah I mean sure maybe some other big ass tech company decides to scoop up a couple billion worth of BTC and the market tries to wrongfully price in that short-term action again.

This 6-month run has been nothing short of unique though.
I'd be pretty surprised if it happened again.

Still thinking BTC will go down further before it jumps to the upside.

I would prefer that we make a move down to $20k... that way I would 100% know it was safe to go long.

I want to say this post aged well, but I don’t want to be jumpy....but at least this part confirms it
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Apparently May 2021 was the worst month ever for Bitcoin.
Does that mean the graphic will be amended? Or is May still one of the hottest months historically?
I'm sure glad I didn't turn my Magic card collection into crypto a couple months ago. Magic just continues upward, while my cryptos have suffered a 50% loss. Not that I'm an investor. I just hate losing my savings when I transfer them around at the wrong moment.

Apparently May 2021 was the worst month ever for Bitcoin.

Only if you go by market cap...
and if you're going by market cap you're going to be saying that at least once every four years.

Also May was a fine month.
We are in the same price range as January.
The consolidation months were bubbled.
Feb/March/April were high a lot more than May was low.
That's what happens when you have a billionaire tech troll pulling strings.

So green months are months that are likely to be record down months?
Just confused what those colours mean. Green is down and red is up?

I don't think you are confused.
Green is up.
Red is down.

And this market is way up.
Don't believe me?
Go back one year and tell yourself the price of Bitcoin.
What did past you have to say?

This mega bubble is creating a lot of chop.
The Q4 run extended all the way into Q2 of the next year.
That's insane.

It's pretty obvious that even with a cursory glance of Bitcoin price action over the last ten years that we very rarely get a solid back to back Q4 run followed by a Q2 run. That's only possible during the 4th year of the mega bubble. Most of the time we have to wait 18 months between legitimate bull run. The green cycles turn bad all the time if we just had a bull run the cycle before. The best example on that front being Q4 2018 where BTC crashed 50% back into the doubling curve rather than being bullish.

Aren't you better than me at speculation? You should be telling me where the price is going. I've been saying $250k Q4 2021 for three years. I could care less where the price goes within the next few months.

So green months are months that will be up compared to the previous year, and red months are months that will be down compared to the previous year? I honestly can't figure out what the colours on that circle are supposed to help predict.
I don't think I'm good at short term speculation. I agree with you this bull market isn't finished.

If Bitcoin is at the doubling curve (currently $20k) the chance of Q4 or Q2 being bullish is very high. If Bitcoin is above the curve the chance of that quarter being good is significantly lower. Most of my predictions that have any accuracy whatsoever are derived from the doubling curve first and the cyclical chart second.

I wouldn't really say you need to be right 55% of the time because it depends more on the risk/reward you are taking. Of course when the risk is equal to the reward then yes that 5% edge will help quite a bit.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

What evidence do you have to support a 10x of HIVE?

We've maintained support during a bearish period better than we ever have before.
There are tons of developments happening on Hive.
HF25 is huge.
Lots of non-consensus development as well.
10x is the max.
Can't really get higher than a 10x without people dumping.
I intend to be ready for the best-case scenario.

I can't see HIVE getting over $1 for a long time.. there's not enough user base plus it's still to complicated for the average person to figure out. And the people inside the HIVE community are more concerned with their personal tribes. (LEO, POB, CINE, WEED) to focus on the big picture. Just my opinion..

St**m made it up to $8 in 2017. There is no reason Hive couldn't repeat that in 2021.


Posted via proofofbrain.io

Love how you think. ❤

the market moves on its own terms, expect to be surprised

Smart contracts on Hive + investor-friendly use cases I can see also a way way way higher price for Hive.

A great break down and alts seem to be bouncing back which is a wonderful thing. Let's hope CUB gets some growth too!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Hive is very bullish right now. If we somehow get to mainstream twitter we are going to explode.

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Wonderful market analysis and a greater conclusion to end a post.

I guess defi is new and speculations might not be totally correct but I will like to see your views about the defi space sooner.

What coins would you recommend based on the validity and nature of their project. I believe in hive already.

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