Market Watch: Moon Soon or Doom?

Crystals girls have invaded my email!

Is it the full moon already? Hm, that was quick. So I guess it happens tomorrow (or in my case 2AM on the east coast). Wild.

Bitcoin doesn't often trade flat during the bearish 2-week cycle, but when it does, usually massive volatility is on the horizon. Either we are spring-loaded and ready to breakout above $25k... or we have one more dip to go before potential recovery.

Crystals girl thinks dump before pump.

I'm inclined to agree. I think it's strange that the 75 point rate hike largely did nothing and got priced in super early. Then again everyone and their mother saw it coming.

But also Crystals Girl is a very accomplished professional trader, and I'm a ridiculous scrub of a trader, which is mostly why I must defer to Crystals Girl. Don't forget: one only has to have an accurate prediction 60% of the time to be a masterclass professional trader. More shockingly put: you can be wrong 40% of the time as a professional gambler and you'll shred the competition.

Pretty weird, eh? And guess who's predicted every major move for over a year now? Crystals Girl has (damn she rich). So now here I am... a scientist, following a god damn crypto Zoomer thirst-trapping Scarlet Witch astrology master who rolls the bones to determine if number go up or down. Life is weird.

Broken or inverse-correlated?

My annual cycle chart has been embarrassingly wrong for over a year now. Seems like every time I'm like "March is bearish" or "June is bullish"... not only is the prediction wrong, but it is violently wrong in the opposite direction.

Normally I would say September is a bad month and we should be ready to buy the dip. Will September end up being a really good month where we can take gains to buy the dip later? I guess we'll find out... it's coming up quick.

So right now at this moment we are testing $24k.

Seems like we are in a good spot. Ya never know, we could break out above $25k any second now... or dump back down to $22k. Either way, the stakes are pretty low. The movements we've seen over the past couple months have been largely small and inconsequential on the macro scale, which is a nice change of pace.

Meanwhile, I still have a ton of stable-coins I would like to dump into the market, but I am simultaneously afraid to do that, and also afraid not to. FOMO and FUD at the same time! What a ride! Obviously in times like this we should DCA, but honestly... sometimes the smart thing to do is to just do nothing. That's what HODL culture is all about. Do nothing; ride the wave. No decisions. Easy. I'll be honest that this works how far more often than not... which is a somewhat embarrassing testament as to how bad we are at trading with steady hands. The ultimate casino has only been kind to me a handful of times out of dozens of losses (good thing the wins were big).

It's going to $10k bro!

Remember when everyone was talking about Bitcoin crashing to $10k? lol, the bears never learn, do they? Where are all those people now? Wondering if they should buy in at $24k when they could have just stuck to the plan and bought at $18k like they were predicting the entire time. I was actually floored at how many people predicted $18k and how few of them actually bought in when it happened. Such is crypto.

Conclusion

We made it through the bearish cycle without dipping. This is not something that happens very often. If we don't crash within half a week I think the market is spring-loaded and ready to test $30k very quickly. Would be nice considering $30k is that critical level we held on for so long before this recent dump. Hell, the doubling curve is almost up to $40k at this point. I'd say getting above $30k is deserved at this point. Such entitlement.

Still, fighting the FED is a bad idea. It would be nice if they announced tapering soon, but who knows when that's gonna happen. Unfortunately, by the time they announce such a thing, we may have missed out on a buying opportunity. Decisions Decisions. Gamble Gamble. Let the chips fall where they may.

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