GREEDY PAWS!
Alright then!
Unsurprisingly I got a little wrecked by this dip after going all-in on the CUB DEN yesterday. Again, I'm pretty annoyed that a potentially bullish event like an AMA with another community was scheduled at the worst time possible: the day all yields drop 33% and people are panicking. This needless uncertainty of speculatory chop pulling in both directions was largely unnecessary and easily avoidable.
At this point, I'm not annoyed that I lost money on the gamble, I'm just annoyed that I feel locked into the den while the LP farm yield is still massive. At 3.5% a day I could simply farm back my losses in a couple days. That's the magic of the LP farm really: super safe high yield hedged in both directions.
Again, had I just been in the LP farm the entire time: I would have only lost half as much money, and my farm would have recaptured those losses after just 2 days at these levels. The LP pool is a Super safe place to be: which is kinda why I assumed CUB should spike. How are people not taking advantage of this crazy deal especially after doing an AMA & even giving them a deposit of 50 BNB... lol whatever.
We learned a lot of important information yesterday. CUB is indeed crypto crack, and when the yields get reduced people are pretty much going to dump no matter what. In fact it looks like the dumping starts a full day before inflation reduction. Come Sunday, I'll likely need to be all-in back to the LP farm to hedge against the imminent losses when yield gets reduced a full 50%. It's quite possible that next Monday/Tuesday will be the best time to buy into CUB: ever due to the massive panic I expect to see.
Again, I'm here for the long haul.
I'm not looking to make quick gains and exit the ecosystem. My goal is to acquire as much Hive, LEO, and CUB as I can. Seeing as CUB is a literal farm that was just born a week ago: seems like the place to be at the moment.
When it really comes down to it the Yields after the next inflation reduction are still going to be amazing. 1% APR a day (365% a year) is obviously a legendary return. Especially on an asset that can moon. This is especially relevant during the mega bubble year.
We would do well to stop fretting over the day to day price action. I'm going to be farming Hive, LEO, CUB hard all the way into Q4. It's during that time that I'll have to refactor my position.
We also need to consider if the overall Bitcoin/Market crash had anything to do with the CUB crash. Certainly, when users see red in every direction, they have a tendency to panic; especially when CUB is just "free money" at this point.
Revisiting impermanent losses
Some of the things I've said about impermanent loss are not entirely accurate. I say things like: a stable-coin pairing reduces volatility by 50% because half of the stake is stored as the stable coin. But is that really true? Is it really 50% exactly?
No...
So the example I give to do the math in my head is:
- If a whale pumps one side double, the other is extracted by half.
- Say one CUB is $5, and the LP pool has $1M BUSD and 200k CUB.
- Now a whale comes along and dumps 200k CUB into the pool.
- This whale will then extract $500k in BUSD.
- The price will crash x4 to $1.25; ratio 400k CUB : 500k BUSD
In this scenario, if you were holding in the den, you just lost 75% of your money (x4). However, if you were holding LP tokens instead, you'd only lose 50%.
Example
You've got $20000 in the LP before it dumps. That's 1% of the total. After the dump, you still control 1% of the LP, the ratio has just been modified. Unfortunately, the pool is no longer worth $2M. It's got 500k BUSD and 400k CUB. Doing the math, you don't even have to know the price of CUB, you just have to double the USD side because both are equal. So the LP pool lost half its value ($2M to $1M), and so did everyone in it. Way better than the x4 loss obviously.
Example 2
But here's a weird example I was looking at today. What happens if Price doubles, and then doubles again, and again, and again?
- Imagine the LP pool worth $2M ($1 on each side).
- Whale pumps BUSD x2, pushing the price up x4.
- Another whale pumps BUSD x2 again, pushing the price up x4.
- What are we left with?
Well, the CUB in the pool was cut in half and then cut in half again, and the BUSD in the pool was doubled and doubled again. Imagine having 1000 CUB and 5000 BUSD in the pool at the start. That's an initial stake of $10k total and a cub price ratio of $5.
At the end of it all, the price has gone x16 because the new ratio is 250 CUB : 20,000 BUSD. That's $80 CUB. Price went x16 but your stack is only worth x4 (from $10k to $40k). So clearly, volatility was reduced even more than 50% as these numbers go exponential. The same would apply to the downside.
Also, the impermanent loss calculation is odd. If you simply held the 1000 CUB / 5000 BUSD outside the LP pool you'd end up with $85k after the price went x16. Truly, the math on these automated markets is a little more complex than it seems at first glance.
Rock: meet hard place.
So now I find myself in a SUPER awkward position. Apologies to anyone that followed me down this canyon when the safe option was such a good deal. To be fair: I've been very clear. Every time I make one of these grandiose plays it tends to blow up in my face and you should do the opposite. I have an amazing track record on that front. If I'm gonna lose money, my readers might as well bet against me and get rich, amirite?
I did it for you, fam :D
I recently wrote a post about learning to take losses: perhaps this will be the first time I actually take my own advice. After all, I can still make back the $5000 I just lost simply by farming the LP pool for another 5 days... lol. I'm still up a lot of money even though I played it fast and loose and got wrecked on this one.
Conclusion
When it really comes down to it: longing the cub DEN is EXTREMELY risky. If the price goes down or trades sideways the higher yield on the LP (and the stable coin hedge to the downside) will ALWAYS outperform the DEN.
In fact, even if the price goes up (slowly) the farm on the LP will still outperform the slippage losses. The only way for the CUB DEN to outperform the LP pool is if the price goes up significantly. At the end of the day: is that just pure greed? Or is it diamond hands? It's up for debate, to be sure.
Now more than ever: it's important to remind everyone that I could lose everything I put into this CUB farm and be just fine. Legit I wouldn't be mad: I wouldn't cry about it. $40k down the toilet: no big deal. That's the kind of attitude one needs to have when they are investing. Light the money on fire. If you cried you were risking too much.
It's all about that long game. Soon the 50% yield reduction will come. APRs will finally stabilize a week or two later. Khal will have a chance to launch products like the ERC20 >> BEP20 bridge + the lending/leasing dapp and whatever else. As we add functionality to CUB more BSC communities will realize that this isn't a cash grab: this is value generation out of thin air. I'm here for the long haul. I hope my dear readers are as well.
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When math? People see % go down sell, see price go down sell! That’s fine by me because I’m monetising time in the market the more they panic sell and buy the more my coins are worth in theory
What I put into cub I’m happy to lose either way it’s just fun to be in from the ground up without a premine bulkshit and all that drama so I’m keen to see where all this goes
It’s still early days and liquidity is still rAzor thin for big players to make any sort of trade and arbitrage in cub with any meaningful volume so I’m sitting tight
I am sitting tight too, and figuring out how to get my hands on more cub.
And, when math? I'm being "smart" this time, and parking some cub before I figured out how it works.
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You just overthinking. As always.
Just collect those Cubs, hold them, and you'll be fine.
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Not so much overthinking as over-emotional and over-greedy.
I'm a gamer.
I'm into game theory and professional gambling.
I've made thousands of dollars on video game auction houses.
I've made tens of thousands of dollars playing poker.
This is what I do.
Please Teach me to gamble, I won't tell who did 😒
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That's the beauty of the LP farm.
Farm LP and HODL is the best strategy 99% of the time.
@oldtimer overthinking brings alot of confusion and that is why everyone should avoid it,the best thing to do is that we should accept things the way they come,holding the CUB token is not a bad idea so holding them is good and we should just be hopeful that the value keeps rising and i believe it will....
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I love your perspective mate, as you emphasized, the upcoming utility will leave strong hands in the game. I think we passed the first milestone when the amount of CUB found in each block was reduced. For non-believers, it was the time to take profit and leave the boat.
LeoBridge and Q2 features are likely to create stronger support levels that people do not dare to sell their CUBs in such low prices. Just a matter of time :)
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Felt like I just want back to school after going through this, lol.
Scary Math here.
The rules of the game is to risk what you're ready to loose.
Investment is tied to wealth, that is net worth is highly significant when going in. A person worth $100 should definitely not be going all in $50 which is 50% into any investment at all, that would be pure greed leading the way to gambling away your spot value.
Its most advised to go in 1-5-10- at most 15% of total wealth, that way any casualties can be managed.
I really do See Cub to be flaming soon, which is why am looking to throw in my 10% worth in tomorrow or next, or probably Monday/Tuesday as advised, and rest assured I won't be going into the cub's den, dad might just be around and devour me😏🤞
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On a scale of 1 to 10 how good is Spring Breakers?
First Time Hearing of it, just got back from duckduckgo, seems it's a movie or something I don't know of 🤔😅
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Go back to school? I don't think any of my math teachers would be able to a b c this math for me.
I wonder how many of them would understand.
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Well, I see my teachers paying me to receive lectures on topics of this sort soon. Life really is weird, tables can just flip and a master becomes a slave. So I guess we'd be tutoring our teachers now 🤔
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that logic only applies to large capital, the guy with 100 dollars might as well go ham most he will lose is 100 dollars. Where as the guy with a million should defo not go ham.
Whatever you do, wherever you stand, get those cubs and don't loose them.....
Letters to myself.
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@edicted good point you have there....
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Great writeup as always.
I quickly wanted to expand on what you mentioned at the end. It is extremely important for BSC defi users to see the value in our project. We know it's a safe bet coz we are with the platform for a long time and we know Khal can deliver. For others, we are just a PCS/Goose clone. Most of them will not read through our documents but will go after hype. Yes, we can tackle them by redirecting them to our documents and success stories but we also need to reach out to them by giving them new products. I know Khal is capable of delivering. As you said, hope they understand this is not a cash grab. But, most users are not looking for a long term engagement. They are so used to pump and dump they are not willing to look beyond three weeks :)
Here for the long run!
It took me longer to park cause I was parallel parking using a 2001 Excursion with no camara or mirrors, but I parked.
Diamond hands.
HIVE, LEO, CUB - great choices to HODL.
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I’m doing an experiment with $300 in the Cub Den and $30 in the Cub-BNB farm.... I’ll let you know how it goes,,,, after 1 day, 1 week, 1 month.... !
Image : 04C59720F4114A338042732D61E6F9C6.jpeg
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I think it is a good opportunity to buy some
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I don't open My wallet except for every 3 or 4 days to restake my harvesting
Intend to make it a year or over investment
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I think a lot of people (including myself) are taking the CUB that they earn and constantly selling half for BUSD to go into the CUB-BUSD farm (or potentially just selling all of it), so that creates a somewhat constant slow selling pressure which will reduce over time as the inflation reduces and as more liquidity goes into the pool.
The really safe play here is the stablecoin pools. Barring any type of hack or issue with the stablecoin (unlikely), the maximum loss you can have in those pools is the 4% deposit fee, and even after the final inflation reduction next week the returns will still be crazy high assuming all else stays the same.
So it's just an unbelievably good risk/reward ratio there. Then if you want to gamble on CUB you can just stick the tokens you're earning from the stablecoin farms in the den or CUB pools.
As for the future value and potential of CUB, I really don't know. I have faith that they're going to build some cool stuff but I don't know if that will necessarily translate into price appreciation for the token. CUB is a tiny fish in a huge ocean of very similar, competing defi apps and even if it will be better than the others in many ways it still may never get noticed or appreciated.
Wise words.
True but I think the crazy upside relative to the downside should be able to get people's attention.
I feel confident in our chances in the long run. Sorry about your losses, but I feel like it is a safe bet they will return. I'm personally excited for that upcoming dip and am thinking of ways I can get the capital to make an investment come monday. Good luck, we are in this boat together
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I have written something about impermanent losses too. It's all about the ratio.
For me, I ignore short-term prices. We only at 12,5M$ it can easy 20x without talking about being one of the big.
That's the reason for me im in chill-out mode. compound and do nothing. If i should lose all funds ( whats IMO unlikely), it is what it is :)
On the other side of the coin, we can also see a massive price increase.
Btw, I told you people panic fast :)
If my exit from LEO is any lesson don't sell your CUB period! (not you but those listening)
Good lesson took me a long while to accumulate LEO at higher prices. I'll be buy CUB during and after the inevitable weak hands exit.
I went into the den with my BUSD-CUB position before you did. In total I am up 80% from where I was last week. You are probably doing better than me. Either way: This is fine...
Go and do the math again and again and again. It's fun. But entropy will always be stronger than what your gambling mind comes up with. You are holding four aces on your hand. No need to think about how to pull out the fifth one.
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The math is more for me just so I have a better understanding of these mechanics.
Playing the market is secondary.
For yourself AND for us. I am learning with each post I am reading from you. What do you think I am here for? For the jokes? No seriously, I am mostly here for the jokes. Just kidding, I value your epic mispredictions as well.
I've gotten good and smashed up in the CUB/BNB LP pool as well over the last few days. It's extremely perplexing to wake up to $200 in new cub, convert half to bnb ... compound stake both in dens ... and be down 1 bnb from the night before. In the end, it's really about what your peg is mentally on the trade ... since I'm funding the engagement with bnb it's easy to get a little wigged out when you run https://howmuchismylp.com and discover you are somehow down despite seemingly ransacking farmed cub.
Looks like price might pick back up and you'll be in the extreme green again tomorrow or the next day. Every day in this market is like a month.
All a learning experience. I watched Uni and Cake take the spotlight and didn't jump on it so when I saw a defi endeavor born of my home platform, I figured this was going to be the best opportunity to learn about the mechanics first hand.
I'm not even really playing for Cub to moon out. Steady growth, strong hands, reliable ratio seems above all to be the governing factor as to whether you make money long term with one of these farms ... .so .... uh .... I'm hoping for that. = )
Man if I understood any of this I'd do the opposite and make money...
But I don't, so I'm stuck with making money on cryptos...
why?
I don't understand why you say "extremely".
I'm new to this kind of defi tools but from my point of view the cub DENS is a contract that pay you interests for staking cubs, so i think it is extremely better than just holding, even if the price go down.
Cub is just born, give her the time to grow :) Remember when leo was born? Was nothing compared to now...
Because the CUB Den is only more profitable than the CUB/BUSD LP pool if the value of CUB is spiking up. If CUB trades sideways or goes down the LP pool is massively more profitable then the den.
ok so it is extremely less profitable but not risky :D
So the BUSD - CUB den is the better option? I am totally lost at the moment. Suppose CUB Den is better safety in the long run.
I dunno. I just dumped cash in and I've totally screwed my returns. Took me a week to recover all my losses from app bugs to accidental burns.
Where is this $50bnb you speak of? I never got that. Is there a place to claim?
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Is the safest option if you want to have CUB exposure.
Damn, I just moved all out to Den.
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To be honest, I'll probably start using the bleo and BNB pool now as I can generate Leo and Hive via blogging and do a mixed stake on CUB and Blog.
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And now I'm cringing because it was my post I think you read about moving to the CUB Den like I did. @edicted is right about BUSD-CUB giving you a hedge. The idea that we can drop even more ... maybe it's time to cut losses AGAIN and move some into the farm. Sigh
Hahaha nah you're fine, I'm happy with this, I've switched the way I am investing as I'm not investing for maximum yield I am investing for the future.
I have a back burner generating me some cub, it's what I have labelled as burn cash. A few grand that I will switch to buy CUB.
The end result you want to have is a sizeable stack of CUB. Well I do anyway. I'd anticipate this low period to occur only for a few months.
Once the team get this listed on a few exchanges alot of people will flurry across and it will send CUB sky high as there won't be enough liquidity.
Once leofinance.io implement more of their umbrella offerings we've got a good view at a $10,000 CUB price.
My objectives are pretty clear for what I want.
Leo and CUB
So for what I'm looking to achieve is a bleo bnb stake and the CUB Den.
It's better to try and assess the data and see where things will be at in the future not the here and the now. Sure you miss out on a few peaks but you will gain more playing for the long run.
Safest bet still remains CUB Den. Beside if price peaks you haven't lost anything and you can provide liquidity later.
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Thanks for providing this perspective. I have not invested anything that would really affect me even if I lost 100%, so that's something good to keep in mind. I'm not as bullish as $10,000, but I see long term appreciation as well.
I've just taken some of my CUB back out of the Den and moved it back to the farm. At perhaps the worst place -- or maybe not. What I'm continually learning is that I think I know more than I actually do, and hedging against that lack of knowledge is a wise thing to do.
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I know not everyone sees it like that and I could be wrong. I did see Leo close at $2 when it was 30c. I was totally wrong it looks like it will beat that by the end of the year.
I think anything over $2 edging closer to the $5 mark will see a dip as people sell off.
I'm looking far ahead like 5 yrs from now. My biggest issue with tokens previously is I saw patterns emerge but didn't believe it would get to where it is now. So I didn't enter.
Now a days with crypto it is alot easier to see the trajectory and match it with user uptake plus what's already out there.
Assessments are alot easier, but keep in mind they are Assessments and could be wrong. But 3 cheers to $10,000
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Mind you $10,000 is still quite far away, but it is the cash zone I'm aiming for. I want to have enough cub so when it hits $500 I can sell a few and piss off half my mortgage while continuing to hodl till $10,000
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What kind of dump you are referring to? CUB is still almost 4$ and the TVL is still close to 13M.
Are you disappointed that the CUB Den is "only" yielding 500%? What have been your expectations??
I lost $5000 in a couple hours so... :D
But those never existed, just on paper. Or did you change LEO or other coins in CUB?
Just wait, CUB will rise again. E.g. when the Audits are published.
Same here. I would be lying If I said I already fully understand the calculations of impermanent loss, but long haul it is; I'll fine tune my learning on the way!
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Wow, I feel you about feeling locked into the Den right now. I went all in with CUB after seeing how an increase in CUB price caused my LP holding to go down. So then I sold my BUSD for CUB at nearly $6 and put it in the Den: literally the worst move I could make. But now I worry we're at a bottom and so moving to the Farm isn't a great idea.
If that's the case, then it would make more sense to go into LP right now. No reason that the price would go up significantly now before that happens, and if it stays the same then the Farm is better. Hmmm ...
i must to admit, i am still to recover the 4% fee for my cakes, but i am close to, 3 more days, and i have 320 cub set aside as profit already. but i still need 50 cake back. :)