Cruel Mistress!
As of right now, many users feel betrayed by the crypto market. Many of these users are new and jumped on the whole Doge/Musk train so they do not know what they signed up for. It's one thing to look at a chart for the past 10 years but it's another thing to actually have skin in the game and live it out on a day to day basis.
More than ever the strategy to HODL is the correct one. The more sharks that enter the water the more blood is fed to them via fear in both directions. Sometimes the best action is inaction, and in crypto often the best action is inaction. Stop reacting. This isn't a game of reactions, it's a game of preemptive foresight and hedging volatility.
If I'm being honest I am quite annoyed at myself for getting greedy right before the crash. Not because I lost money, but because my witness team was ready to buy a full node and we all had plenty of money to accomplish that. I had the brilliant idea of waiting until June because then we'd have even more money! Classic gambler's syndrome. Even when we win we double down one more time and lose. OOPS!
That is not how to run a business. That's exactly how Steemit Inc essentially went bankrupt. All they had to do was not get greedy and sell into the upward pressure. Even with 80M premined coins they didn't do it. Unbelievable. The greed really is infinite.
At the end of the day if we have the resources to trade in for stable coins and buy runway for our projects, we should do it. The value of the project technically should outweigh any potential gains we missed out on, and as we've all seen from the past it's when we get the most greedy that we are most likely to lose big.
Crypto might be one of the hardest places to run a business due to the sweeping volatility that hits everyone. Even if we are personally financially responsible, the communities we service are guaranteed to not be. We can't force our users to play it safe. Gambling is too fun, amirite? The addiction is real.
We are still perfectly trapped inside this damn wedge. Time is ticking though. Tick tock tick tock. We are guaranteed to break out of this thing within 3 days by my count. Probably sooner. It is highly unlikely that we will trade flat when that happens. I'm expecting a $5k spike up or down depending on the Cruel Mistress of Fate.
Seeing as I always seem to be wrong about these things, lets say we need to crash back down to $30k and test support again. Yeah, that's definitely what's going to happen. You heard it here first: dump to $30k inc.
However, as I've already stated, I don't really care where the price goes in the short-term. BTC could go anywhere from $20k to $100k this summer. I've been predicting $250k BTC in Q4 2021 for 3 years now, and I've been holding this entire time to get there. Only 6 more months to go! Feels like a dream. This is no time to get cold feet! HODL!
Speaking of Elon Musk, looks like he's trying to manipulate another market. Promoting CumRocket? Yikes. That's a new low.
I like how so many people act all high and mighty like they wouldn't do the exact same thing if they could just post a Tweet and manipulate these prices. 90% of these outraged citizens would totally do the exact same thing with that position of power. We already know this to be true. That's exactly how capitalism works and why we are here in the first place. Things would not be better if you were in charge. Fact.
Reputation is important to me, and I'd like to think that I wouldn't do such things, but then again I've never had to battle the corrupting forces of massive wealth, yet. Gotta see it to believe it, I suppose. Fake it till ya make it.
But I really do believe we are entering a new era; a completely new paradigm where finally truth, justice, and honor can be properly incentivized by the governance structures we lay down. It's hard to see it when everything is so new and floundering, but scrying the future has never been easy. Now with tech spiraling out of control this could not be more accurate.
Magitek
As far as my own project is concerned, I'm making some slow progress. Too a few shortcuts that I needed to take care of. A classic trick in relational databases is to create a unique user id for each user so that you can store a lot of the information required as an integer (4 bytes) instead of characters (at least 1 byte per character). The indexing is also a lot cheaper and faster. So I added a user ID and basically broke all the code I wrote. Basically cleaned it up yesterday so it would work again.
I do have a bad habit of trying to optimize my code before even knowing if it even needs optimization. Sometimes the slower option is the smart play, because the code is shorter and easier to read and maintain. I probably won't do any more optimizations until I launch a working product. Gotta grind out the rest of this code so that it can actually be alpha tested.
I'm feeling pretty confident in my ability to quit my job at this point. Tomorrow I'll probably head into work and work a shift (first time in weeks). Gotta talk to HR about the possible severance package. I would be floored if they weren't offering them at the moment considering how much time off is being issued. I can use that money to continue leveraging my fiat positions. Not looking forward to cashing out any crypto unless we happen to get a summer bull run. Then for the first time ever perhaps I'll take the golden opportunity.
The main thing I'm working on right now with Magitek is the voting system. I was thinking I'd be able to launch without it but... alas, the idea is just too good. There are already 29 variables available for the community to tweek in order to attempt maintaining stability.
As the stable coin, ICE will be the primary concern of the network. Keeping ICE pegged is all that matters in the beginning. Also making sure Fire remains relatively pegged to Hive is a top priority, because the price feed from witness oracles is imperative to the entire ecosystem.
If I'm being honest the peg to Fire is actually a lot more important than the Ice peg, but I think the Fire peg will be pretty easy to achieve. No one is going to want to trade their Fire for less than the Hive value after sending that Hive to @null. No one likes taking losses. I'll need to set up a bot that allows anyone to trade Fire for Hive at a discounted price. Perhaps there will be users who are even willing to make the full 1:1 trade in order to avoid destroying Hive. That would be a very good sign. We'll see.
Conclusion
Development grinds on in every direction. There is so much going on with crypto right now that looking at the current price is a big mistake. My advice is to just wait it out till the end of the year and refactor from there. It's gonna be a wild ride.
P.S.
I hear that HF25 is coming out on June 30th.
Perfect timing.
Very bullish on Hive right now.
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wait, are you just claiming dump to 30k in the hopes that the market will do the opposite pretending to be bearish? ahahaha.
as you said, it will be alright! hold your stake and let the gang have their fun with the newcomers, ultimately i feel we are in for some off the scale bull market. great time to accumulate hive and work on our stuff outside of the markets
I'm honestly fine with the crypto markets doing something, or nothing. I actually made a similar call to you with some development finances in the hope that May or June do something... but honestly even if they don't it should all work out okay.
I'm going to be floored if this isn't a good summer honestly...
First summer since the pandemic started?
Printers going BBRRRR in every direction?
Even if the gains are just temporary they should still materialize.
Should do... unless everyone is too busy partying it up and spending all their income on services.
That's exactly what's going to happen.
And where does that money then go?
Into the hands of the sharks that are currently buying out Bitcoin and Ethereum.
One thing the crypto markets aren't known for doing is going sideways! Something will happen, no doubt about that.
Totally agree... but you could argue that BTC has mostly been traveling sideways for the last couple of months... except for some wild swings in either direction for short periods of time, haha.
True, we've been doing the toppy patterm around 50k for like 3 months. But I don't think we'll hang out flat at 35k for very long :)
looks favorable I would say; that last push downward should have been the "e" of the abcde, which means we should break out to the top
Sentiments I agree with. The majority of people in the space these days are too reactive, getting tensed up over every market shift and Musk sneeze. Luckily we can Hold and do something, as hive at least lets us have a sense of community and accumulate one or two extra tokens while the market remains docile.
As for Magitek, thinking about getting help soon? I know you mentioned it in the past. I'd have offered but I have the developer skills of a Stone
I don't really need any help until I'm ready to port this virtual server onto a real one.
Also need to set up permissions and increase security.
Eh, I'll get there but it's gonna take a while.
As someone who'd always loved Elon's trolling sessions before the doge debacle, I still love them.
Crypto people just feeding the trolls
It looks like that wedge is going to be decision time soon enough. I wonder if it will break up or break down this time around.
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Will HF25 make my scripts stop working too?
I have scripts that are 3 years old that I wrote for Steem that still work.
Pretty crazy stuff.
HODL. Crypto is not stock. Company goes bankrupt along with their stocks. Crypto doesn't. Unless of course the development team is doing a bump and dump and run away with all the initial cash.
Bitcoin as the bitcoin, will never disappear. Only the price changes. HODL them, and it will go up and down. It's normal.
And for Elon, I don't know what to say. Just a biggest troll, don't feed troll.
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Greed
One of our emotions and sentiments, which can rob us of enjoying a good gain, to hold out for a bigger gain. All the while our capitol is at risk.
Better
Any project made with our hands, can always be improved upon,
Thus delaying its completion. The dreaded phrase the biggest enemy of good, is better.
Soon.
Khal’ s constant exhortation soon, takes on new meaning, when you personally try to build something for others to use!
Life.
Interesting article. Thank you for sharing your misses. I absolutely agree with you that inaction is often more productive than undirected action (I think your example with optimization is the best confirmation of this!)
Patience to all who are in the mood for HODL!
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interesante
Anybody who bought into a cryptocurrency based on twitter and reddit memes, THEN gets mad or upset because the value of the token goes down, is truly insane!! All I can do is shake my head with regards to all the dogecoin stuff, it is really strange to me that things like this happen.