As they say: up up and away in May.

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Hive is as volatile and unpredictable as ever.

Spike up to $1, crash to 50 cents in a week, and now we've been climbing up for a few days. Where she stops, nobody knows. With Hive being totally uncorrelated to the market Q2 could be amazing for every other coin while Hive just kinda sits flat like it did last time. I don't necessarily think that will happen but it wouldn't be surprising.

All we can do is hedge our bets and rebalance our stacks should such an event occur. These happenstances are actually huge opportunities to get more Hive. If a bag we are holding goes x5 but Hive does nothing, that's just an epic opportunity to get more Hive in my opinion.

I won't even consider selling any significant amount of Hive before we hit the $5 mark. Obviously there will be ton of resistance and money transferring hands between $5-$10 due to how many users got absolutely wrecked during the last bear market. All those people will refuse to get that wrecked this time around, which should honestly be good for all parties involved. We need as much liquidity as we can get.

https://peakd.com/hive-133987/@penguinpablo/weekly-report-how-much-hive-is-stored-on-the-exchanges-april-7-2021

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Looking at @penguinpablo's analysis, not only do we see that there are more than 130 MILLION HIVE on the exchanges, but also HBD is still trading massively above $1 and the stabilizer proposal is taking a ton of liquid Hive off the market and pumping it back into the dev fund.

Hive Powerup Dominance is still sitting at all time lows, and even with an epic pump back up to $1, the positive feedback loop snowball of increased prices and powering up hasn't even started yet... like at all. We are still on square one in terms of a bull market even after going x5. We aint seen nothin yet.

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Obviously many Hive users are going to be thrilled with a price of $5-$10 and there will be a ton of resistance and selling there, but judging by what I'm seeing my old predictions remain the same: I think every relevant altcoin is going to be able to at least x10 previous all time highs. Based on this information I think that Hive will easily spike to $50-$80 a coin in as little as 9 months... crazy stuff.

Such insanity would put a single upvote from my account at near the $1000 level... and my blog posts would be paying out 5 figures a day. Again, obviously that sounds absolutely ridiculous beyond any kind reasonable expectation, but as we all know, the mega-bubble is anything but reasonable, and the impending bear market will once again be absolutely devastating for those who get caught off guard.

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BNB

However, the real reason I wanted to write this post was because of Binance's Token. As much as we all hate to admit it, this centralized shitcoin is absolutely unstoppable and has always been a top performer since inception.

Binance is one of those coins that starts performing well before the rest of the market and crashes late as well. You really get the best of both worlds if you're a Binance bull.

BNB is the new XRP 2.0 or the new Tether 2.0. It's that number three coin that makes it to the top leaving everyone scratching their heads. Why is this centralized piece of garbage valued so highly?

BSC

Obviously Binance Smart Chain has a lot to do with it. People hate fees and are willing to ignore all of BSC's centralized attack vectors in order to use a network that actually works. At the end of the day the Ethereum mainnet scaling solutions are a disaster of epic proportions. The Ethereum Foundation has a ton of money, yet not enough devs, just like EOS and many other networks with centralized development (all of them). Decentralized development doesn't exist yet. Perhaps Hive can invent it. Who knows.

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ETH fees

Only the wealthy can use ETH now due to high fees, and the only way to invest in ETH while avoiding these fees is to use a centralized exchange. How ironic that avoiding fees using a centralized exchange pushes the price of ETH up, further increasing the cost of transactions on the main chain. We can be sure that this feedback loop will keep happening because ETH has been deemed "not a security" by the SEC, providing massive legal protections for big-money players looking to enter the space. Many of the big players entering Bitcoin have already declared they will support Ethereum as well for this exact reason.

BSC has already lowered fees by 50% down to 5 GWEI from 10. They can theoretically lower fees all the way down to 1 GWEI for a further 80% reduction as BNB spikes up over the next 9 months. ETH can't compete in the short term... unless of course one of those centralized attack vectors get exploited and Binance gets hacked. This would obviously be devastating to a lot of users, and fully within the realm of possibility. In my mind, it's all but guaranteed that a major exchange will get hacked within the next 12 months as these honeypots of value skyrocket exponentially in value.

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Steem Hostile Takeover

The Hive community is a unlikely ally of Binance. Most of us are still salty as hell that Binance powered up customer funds to attack the Steem consensus algorithm. CZ's apology and actions regarding the matter were pathetic. It will be impossible for many to trust someone like that, especially when he still obviously has ties to Justin Sun and didn't even cut him out of his circle.

That being said the entire point of crypto is building trustless environments that don't require us to put our faith in CZ or Binance. Even though most coins like BTCB on BSC are pegged to a Binance cold wallet we already have two assets on BSC that are completely independent of Binance and enforced by a team that we can trust more (LEO & CUB). This is just the beginning, and as we branch out we can further plug the holes of centralized attack while reducing trust in centralized authority.

Conclusion

BNB is steadily climbing while BTC and ETH stand still. I can almost all but guarantee that BTC and ETH will follow BNB's lead shortly in a week or two. Soon™ everything is going to be trading at or near all time highs. All we have to do is wait.

The month of May provides consistent upward action (sideways at worst) for the last decade. During one of the strongest mega-bubble years of all time, it's safe to assume that next month is just going to be a HODL FOR DEAR LIFE month that we shouldn't be trying to day-trade whatsoever. The same can't be said for June, but I guess we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

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31 comments
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I think CZ has ties to Justin Sun because of the Chinese government and the way they treat companies in an industry. They force them to help each other.

However, CZ is a libertarian at heart, this is clear in his interviews. There are even rumors that Binance is the team behind Thorchain, and that they were looking to disrupt themselves with a decentralized product. I forgot the reason for this rumour but it was well founded.

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I think that Hive will easily spike to $50-$80 a coin in as little as 9 months.

That's better than sex...

BNB is the new XRP 2.0

Exactly what I was thinking when started reading the paragraph.

CZ's apology and actions regarding the matter were pathetic

CZ is pathetic quite often and it's clear that BNB's pumps are an inside job.

When do you foresee the peak of the market before entering bear market?

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Price of Bitcoin determines when we peak.
I assume it will be x10-x15 the doubling curve like always.
We are currently at x3.4 the doubling curve... so we have quite a ways to go.

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Just give us a sign when x10-x15 the doubling curve occurs. I believe that somehow intuitively I will know when that occurs being part of this market at the end of 2017 and I have to recognize that euphoria preceding the top.

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I'm thinking $250k-$400k in Q4, but it could happen sooner considering how quickly the current run started.

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I think that Hive will easily spike to $50-$80 a coin in as little as 9 months.

That's better than sex...

Sex is pathetic and ridiculous legacy crap compared to that. :D

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Those are some amazing outlooks for HIVE and I would be happy if HIVE was $10 by the end of the year.

Decentralized development doesn't exist yet. Perhaps Hive can invent it. Who knows

I think the HSC (HIVE side chain) is in development so I hope it becomes the first decentralized development in that front. I predict BNB might also have similar issues to ETH in the future.

As for Binance, I gave up keeping track of them after Binance US came out. I heard about the Steem hostile takeover but I do think they are in the wrong for using customer funds like that.

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I'm both excited for Hive to hit some huge prices, and sad for it... as it means it'll be harder for me to buy a ton of hive to power up! lol.

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Yep it's a very strange double-edged sword.

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It's pretty cheap now.

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It's not too bad right now. I've been accumulating more as my wallet allows... and will continue to! Would love to close this year with 10K HP but we'll see how she goes.

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That is a nice goal. I have similar goals in that regard. 10K seems really good once the masses flood in here. It seems small right now cause we are swimming with whales.

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I mathed it out and at 10k I should be able to increase my HP through curation alone by a couple thousand a year, and that only goes up from there - so that's most of why I want to hit there. Long hauling this!

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Well, this last hike left me with my arms closed, I bet everything I had in leos and suddenly I read it continues like a stable coin, thank God while hive triples in a stroke, but that's how the market goes we don't know how it will happen until it happens Well, today we just have to keep trying so that things are in order, some of us did not learn enough from 2017 but hey.
True, we all want a US $ 5 to 10, we are waiting for it so that we can get a little bit that I think will happen soon, once we have the leobridge that will put movement on our platform.
BNB I just bought some of it like 1/10 of a coin to cover Binance smartchain transactions but having known I would have bet a little more but hey
Yes, I know that we are negotiating with almost a barrel of powder when using BSC, but for now we have no other, at least while Cardano activates its protocols and we can see if it can be migrated there, but I see this possibility as remote.

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Am amateur is learning, sometimes I am indecisive about which to stick with.
I got some BNB for a while moved them to ETH before realizing how it became stable even as BNB climbs up.

For hive I am very sure and can't wait to experience this like you have said.

'Based on this information I think that Hive will easily spike to $50-$80 a coin in as little as 9 months... crazy stuff'

Am learning.....

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If your Hive price assessment materializes we will literally be printing our own money. Not to mention many of the lower valued tribes will benefit from the excess purchasing power.

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Eh it's only a matter of time.

If not this year then for sure in another 5.

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Hive will easily spike to $50-$80 a coin in as little as 9 months>

AMEN

But my honest opinion is that yes we can reach that price. Dont know why but I have that feeling. Ok I have to admit that I told this even before.
MAybe we just have to wait for the right time. But more and more we wait I see the signs that the world need a blockchain like hive and people need free speech.

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Geez. I really need to spend more time on Hive if even half of your forecast comes true.

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That Hive prediction for the next 9 months is really something! I also believe the same thing is going to happen. In fact, I'm actually glad the price dropped a bit so I can go and buy more Hive

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Honestly though I'd prefer if it didn't spike that high.

The higher it goes the more downside we'll get later.

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In my opinion we will see Hive touching $5 in near future but I think the bear market is around the corner maybe June and we will see that Hive will get down. But I think the projection will hold true for another Bull run and that run will see Hive dominance.

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The Hive community is a unlikely ally of Binance.

I disagree.

CZ is man with moral and when we build hive and focus on bringing crypto mass adoption with HIVE dapps, Not just him/binance every other crypto wants to work with our HIVE community.

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What I like about BNB is how userfriendly it has turned out for the masses, and that does make sense with new blood coming in. But....as you mention waaaaaay too centralized and also the price feels kind of crazy to me.

hive price that high? Although I would be super siked about it, I would believe more on a $5 end of year but that is just based on feelings and not on models. Lets get back on this at the end of the year!

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Those $1000 upvotes are potentially life-changing for the recipients. Doesn't hurt that you'd be pulling down $5000/day in curation rewards.

the impending bear market will once again be absolutely devastating for those who get caught off guard.

I'll just do what I did last time; stake it in Splinterlands.

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(Edited)

May go away, that is the saying I remember?? hmm... haha

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(Edited)

Something I don't completely understand right now. If Binance (BC/clients information) would be hacked (which obviously wouldn't be bad only for BNB, but for crypto market in general), does that automatically mean BSC is compromised? I know it's permissioned POS, but would the hacker be able to automatically decide which are the block producers on BSC?

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I won't even consider selling any significant amount of Hive before we hit the $5 mark.

This is smart, every HIVE sold for $0.50 is like selling bitcoin for $500.00.

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